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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Sol de América Sol de América ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.94
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Sol de América win · Sol de América 3–2 Fernando de la Mora
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.64,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.43,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Sol de Am\u00e9rica or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica"
},
"away_xg": 1.13,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
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"edge": -0.0299,
"edge_gap": 0.1415,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4632,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
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"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 1.94
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],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"label": "Home",
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"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 22,
"away_score_rate": 67.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 22,
"home_score_rate": 77.0,
"no_prob": 46.3,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 53.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 53.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.13,
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"scores": [
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
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{
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"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
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{
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{
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"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Fernando de la Mora",
"prob": 56.6
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica or Draw",
"pick_prob": 72.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 27.5,
"draw_pct": 29.1,
"home_pct": 43.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": -16.0,
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"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica Win",
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"odds": 1.94
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Fernando de la Mora",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 28.08,
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 13:04:35",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 12:35:53",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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"gap_pp": -2.99,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 43.33
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.08,
"gap_pp": 1.1,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.6,
"gap_pp": 1.89,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 27.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.92,
"gap_pp": 3.28,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.08,
"gap_pp": -3.28,
"kind": "ou_u",
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"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
"closing": 2.06,
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{
"closing": 1.68,
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"same_bookmaker": true,
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},
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"label": "1-1",
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"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
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"model_prob_pct": 12.3,
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"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.47,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0073,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
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"alpha": 0.2134,
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"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0626,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.455
},
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"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
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"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1298,
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"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.0,
"text": "-13.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0363,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.67,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2102,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0092,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4931,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.537,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2312,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.5069,
"model_prob": 0.463,
"p_final": 0.4968
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"p_final": 0.5023,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0173,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0808,
"value_side": "yes",
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"alpha": 0.2102,
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"edge": 0.0092,
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"model_prob": 0.537,
"p_final": 0.5023
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1434,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.3,
"text": "-14.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0065,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.7,
"text": "-0.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0065,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 46.3,
"sort_key": 1798.375,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 53.7
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1347,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4632,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.082,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.2,
"text": "-8.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1594,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"sort_key": 1779.5,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"alert_team": "Fernando de la Mora",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.97,
"hero_label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"market_prob_pct": 46.3,
"market_team": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"model_prob_pct": 43.4,
"model_team": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sol de Am\u00e9rica)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sol de Am\u00e9rica)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sol de Am\u00e9rica at 43.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sol de Am\u00e9rica as the value side (43.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sol de Am\u00e9rica).",
"Decision strength: 6.4/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1347,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4632,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5154639175257733,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1594,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.97,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.97,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.13,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.47,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.47,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.47 \u00b7 Away xG 1.13 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +9%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"steam_team": "Fernando de la Mora",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sol de Am\u00e9rica)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sol de Am\u00e9rica)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sol de Am\u00e9rica at 43.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sol de Am\u00e9rica as the value side (43.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sol de Am\u00e9rica).",
"Decision strength: 6.4/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1347,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4632,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5154639175257733,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1594,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sol de Am\u00e9rica 1.47 xG vs Fernando de la Mora 1.13 \u2192 Sol de Am\u00e9rica 43.4%",
"Market: Sol de Am\u00e9rica ~46.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Fernando de la Mora odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sol de Am\u00e9rica with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.97,
"fair_prob": 43.35,
"label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"market_prob": 46.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.07,
"fair_prob": 29.15,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"fair_prob": 27.5,
"label": "Fernando de la Mora",
"market_prob": 25.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.51,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.51,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.15,
"fair_prob": 53.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.15,
"fair_prob": 46.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.35,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"market_prob_pct": 46.32,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Fernando de la Mora"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.97,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.9,
"model_prob_pct": 43.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sol de Am\u00e9rica 1.47 xG vs Fernando de la Mora 1.13 \u2192 Sol de Am\u00e9rica 43.4%",
"Market: Sol de Am\u00e9rica ~46.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Fernando de la Mora odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sol de Am\u00e9rica with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.97,
"hero_label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Fernando de la Mora odds lengthened \u2191 +10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Fernando de la Mora has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Fernando de la Mora \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Fernando de la Mora has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Fernando de la Mora \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Fernando de la Mora has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.97,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 14.2 pp (at 43.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 14.2,
"max_prob_pct": 43.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.97,
"edge_pp": -2.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.35,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"market_prob_pct": 46.32,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.07,
"edge_pp": 1.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.15,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.08,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.9,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Fernando de la Mora",
"market_prob_pct": 25.6,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Fernando de la Mora \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sol de Am\u00e9rica (46.3%).",
"Fernando de la Mora odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.0%, 5/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Sol de Am\u00e9rica \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.55,
"closing_odds": 1.94,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.55,
"entry_odds": 1.94,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 38h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Fernando de la Mora (10.0%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.51",
"3.25",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.60 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 38h 58m",
"pick_team": "Fernando de la Mora",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.51,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,7.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.51"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/8 sportsbooks on Fernando de la Mora",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Fernando de la Mora",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Fernando de la Mora",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Fernando de la Mora",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_team_name": "Fernando de la Mora",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fernando-de-la-mora",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Fernando de la Mora",
"away_team_id": 2130,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2130.webp",
"away_team_name": "Fernando de la Mora",
"away_team_public_id": "55GuBxwPbNYYUZ",
"away_team_slug": "fernando-de-la-mora",
"country_code": "PY",
"country_display_name": "Paraguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/py.svg",
"country_id": 125,
"country_name": "Paraguay",
"fixture_id": 1636649,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Paraguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"home_team_id": 1177,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1177.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"home_team_public_id": "3P0rcrQff3Ew88",
"home_team_slug": "sol-de-america",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sol-de-america",
"league_country": "Paraguay",
"league_country_display": "Paraguay",
"league_display_name": "Division Intermedia Paraguay",
"league_id": 251,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/251.webp",
"league_name": "Division Intermedia Paraguay",
"league_public_id": "0sWYiIa69VAN3C",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 13:00:00",
"public_id": "2gKeRkgcdWDe5q",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
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"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2915,
"best_odd": 3.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0055,
"ev": -0.082,
"implied_prob": 0.256,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.256,
"draw": 0.2808,
"home": 0.4632
},
"model_prob": 0.275,
"p_final": 0.2615
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2951,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0032,
"ev": -0.0911,
"implied_prob": 0.2808,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.256,
"draw": 0.2808,
"home": 0.4632
},
"model_prob": 0.2918,
"p_final": 0.284
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5731,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0172,
"ev": -0.1347,
"implied_prob": 0.4632,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.256,
"draw": 0.2808,
"home": 0.4632
},
"model_prob": 0.4333,
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}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.51,
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.0349,
"implied_prob": 0.2849,
"model_prob": 0.275
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": -0.0207,
"ev": -0.0663,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.2918
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": -0.0822,
"ev": -0.1595,
"implied_prob": 0.5155,
"model_prob": 0.4333
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2312,
"alpha_yes": 0.2102,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.85,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0415,
"edge_yes": 0.0415,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1434,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1157,
"ev_yes": -0.0065,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0808,
"implied_no": 0.5045,
"implied_yes": 0.4955,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2312,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.5069,
"model_prob": 0.463,
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},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2102,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0808,
"implied_prob": 0.4931,
"model_prob": 0.537,
"p_final": 0.5023
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4968,
"p_final_yes": 0.5023,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2134,
"alpha_under": 0.2348,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.06,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.0351,
"edge_under": -0.0351,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0626,
"ev_under": -0.1298,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0911,
"implied_over": 0.4469,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4477,
"implied_under": 0.5531,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5523,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0626,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.455
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2348,
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"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.0911,
"implied_prob": 0.5523,
"model_prob": 0.518,
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}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.455,
"p_final_under": 0.5442,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 6.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 6.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sol de Am\u00e9rica)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sol de Am\u00e9rica at 43.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sol de Am\u00e9rica as the value side (43.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sol de Am\u00e9rica).",
"Decision strength: 6.4/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
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"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1347,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4632,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5154639175257733,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1594,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.537,
"draw_prob": 0.2918,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4333,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.34
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0363,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0172,
"ev": -0.1347,
"implied_prob": 0.4632,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica"
},
"btts": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0092,
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.5069,
"model_prob": 0.463,
"p_final": 0.4968
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"p_final": 0.5023,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0808,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2102,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0808,
"implied_prob": 0.4931,
"model_prob": 0.537,
"p_final": 0.5023
}
},
"edge": 0.0415,
"ev": -0.0065,
"implied_prob": 0.4955,
"model_prob": 0.537,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0073,
"market_prob": 0.4477,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0626,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.455
},
"p_final": 0.455,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0626,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2348,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.0911,
"implied_prob": 0.5523,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5442
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0351,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1636649,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0363,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.275,
"draw": 0.2918,
"home": 0.4333
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fernando de la Mora",
"home": "Sol de Am\u00e9rica"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1347,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4632,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5154639175257733,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1594,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1636649,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T13:04:37.627810+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Division Intermedia Paraguay — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Santaní | 26 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 51 |
| 2 | General Caballero | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 50 |
| 3 | 12 de Junio VH | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 49 |
| 4 | Benjamín Aceval | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | Sol de América | 26 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 40 |
| 6 | Sportivo Carapeguá | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 38 |
| 7 | Independiente FBC | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 37 |
| 8 | Paraguari AC | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 9 | Resistencia | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32 |
| 10 | Fernando de la Mora | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 31 |
| 11 | Atlético Tembetary | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 30 |
| 12 | Deportivo Capiatá | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 28 |
| 13 | 3 de Noviembre | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 26 |
| 14 | Guaireña FC | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 25 |
| 15 | Tacuary | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 24 |
| 16 | Encarnación | 26 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 22 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | General Caballero | 26 | 52 | 33 | +19 | 50 |
| 2 | Deportivo Santaní | 26 | 45 | 25 | +20 | 51 |
| 3 | Benjamín Aceval | 26 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 42 |
| 4 | Independiente FBC | 26 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 37 |
| 5 | 12 de Junio VH | 26 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 49 |
| 6 | Paraguari AC | 25 | 34 | 33 | +1 | 35 |
| 7 | Atlético Tembetary | 25 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 30 |
| 8 | 3 de Noviembre | 26 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 26 |
| 9 | Sol de América | 26 | 32 | 24 | +8 | 40 |
| 10 | Sportivo Carapeguá | 26 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 38 |
| 11 | Deportivo Capiatá | 26 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
| 12 | Resistencia | 26 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 32 |
| 13 | Fernando de la Mora | 25 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 31 |
| 14 | Tacuary | 26 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 24 |
| 15 | Encarnación | 26 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 22 |
| 16 | Guaireña FC | 25 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 25 |
