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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Olympique Lyonnais Olympique Lyonnais ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-3 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.38
AI Fair Odds
2.22
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Olympique Lyonnais win · Anderlecht 1–2 Olympique Lyonnais
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 45.1%
- Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "f17628171a47a3f189a372783298e477bbd43ec0138aa9424eaeaae383a59c23",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.5261,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2567,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.2173,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.91,
"away_win_prob": 0.5261,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.5261,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.448,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.552,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2567,
"fair_odds_away": 1.9,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 1.9,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.9,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.9,
"fair_odds_home": 4.6,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 4.6,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.0,
"home_win_prob": 0.2173,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.2173,
"over_25_prob": 0.556,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.444
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Olympique Lyonnais and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Olympique Lyonnais",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Olympique Lyonnais"
},
"away_xg": 1.91,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"confidence": 52.6,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Olympique Lyonnais",
"edge": 0.1196,
"edge_gap": 0.2699,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4067,
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 52.6,
"draw": 25.6,
"home": 21.7
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Olympique Lyonnais"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.38
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.38,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Olympique Lyonnais Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.46,
"market_odds": 2.38,
"model_odds": 1.9,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 10.6,
"value_pct": 25.3,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 85.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 63.2,
"no_prob": 44.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 55.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 55.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.91,
"home_expected": 1.0,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-3",
"prob": 6.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Anderlecht or Draw",
"prob": 47.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Anderlecht or Olympique Lyonnais",
"prob": 74.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Olympique Lyonnais",
"prob": 78.3
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Olympique Lyonnais",
"pick_prob": 78.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 52.6,
"draw_pct": 25.7,
"home_pct": 21.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Olympique Lyonnais"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.91,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 2.3,
"over_prob": 55.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 55.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.91,
"under_prob": 44.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 25.3,
"implied_prob": 42.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Olympique Lyonnais Win",
"model_prob": 52.6,
"odds": 2.38
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 40.67,
"draw": 26.96,
"home": 32.37
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 19:01:26",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 18:31:28",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Anderlecht",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.37,
"gap_pp": -10.63,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 21.74
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.96,
"gap_pp": -1.32,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.64
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.67,
"gap_pp": 11.96,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 52.63
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.64,
"gap_pp": -0.04,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 55.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.36,
"gap_pp": 0.04,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 44.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.99,
"early": 2.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.37,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.37,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.59,
"early": 3.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.96,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.96,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.38,
"early": 2.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.67,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.73,
"early": 1.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.64,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.17,
"early": 2.17,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.36,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betano",
"best_odds": 14.5,
"edge": 3.0,
"ev": 44.1,
"label": "0-2",
"probability": 9.9
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.4,
"ev": 0.04,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 10.0,
"market_prob": 0.1,
"market_prob_pct": 10.0,
"model_prob": 0.104,
"model_prob_pct": 10.4,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "0-3",
"prob": 6.3
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.0,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Marathonbet",
"best_odds": 2.38,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Away Olympique Lyonnais",
"edge": 10.6,
"ev": 24.0,
"probability": 52.6
},
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2709,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0142,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.3956,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.448,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2709,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.3956,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"p_final": 0.4098
},
"p_final": 0.4098,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0573,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0328,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3725,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.0964,
"implied_prob": 0.6044,
"model_prob": 0.552,
"p_final": 0.5849
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0976,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.8,
"text": "+9.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1058,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.6,
"text": "-10.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0976,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 44.8,
"sort_key": 10237.84,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 55.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais.",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.073,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.3,
"text": "+7.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.073,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.3,
"text": "+7.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2526,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"sort_key": 10065.7,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.362,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0036,
"edge_pp": 0.4,
"market_prob": 0.4341,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.444,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3983,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0039,
"ev": -0.0559,
"implied_prob": 0.5659,
"model_prob": 0.556,
"p_final": 0.562
},
"p_final": 0.4377,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0276,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0415,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.362,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0036,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.4341,
"model_prob": 0.444,
"p_final": 0.4377
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0381,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.8,
"text": "-3.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0123,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.2,
"text": "+1.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0123,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 55.6,
"sort_key": 5209.84,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 44.4,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 811.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 10.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"alert_team": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.94,
"hero_label": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"market_prob_pct": 40.7,
"market_team": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"model_prob_pct": 52.6,
"model_team": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0976,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2525,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Olympique Lyonnais at 52.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Olympique Lyonnais as the value side (52.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Olympique Lyonnais \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.80 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636212 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.80 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.073,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2526,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 41.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.91"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.91
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6923076923076923,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.94,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.94,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.91,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 41.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.0,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.91,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.00 \u00b7 Away xG 1.91 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +41%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"steam_team": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0976,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2525,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Olympique Lyonnais at 52.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Olympique Lyonnais as the value side (52.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Olympique Lyonnais \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.80 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636212 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.80 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.073,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2526,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 41.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.91"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.91
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Anderlecht 1.00 xG vs Olympique Lyonnais 1.91 \u2192 Olympique Lyonnais 52.6%",
"Market: Olympique Lyonnais ~40.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Olympique Lyonnais odds \u2191 +20.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Olympique Lyonnais, but the market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.64,
"fair_prob": 21.73,
"label": "Anderlecht",
"market_prob": 32.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.29,
"fair_prob": 25.67,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.94,
"fair_prob": 52.61,
"label": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"market_prob": 40.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.81,
"fair_prob": 55.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.41,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.81,
"fair_prob": 44.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.59,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.95,
"fair_prob": 55.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.95,
"fair_prob": 44.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 11.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 52.61,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"market_prob_pct": 40.67,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Olympique Lyonnais"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Olympique Lyonnais\u0027s win probability at 52.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 40.7%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 11.94,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+11.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 11.9,
"model_prob_pct": 52.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+11.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Anderlecht 1.00 xG vs Olympique Lyonnais 1.91 \u2192 Olympique Lyonnais 52.6%",
"Market: Olympique Lyonnais ~40.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Olympique Lyonnais odds \u2191 +20.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Olympique Lyonnais, but the market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.94,
"hero_label": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Olympique Lyonnais odds lengthened \u2191 +20.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Olympique Lyonnais.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Olympique Lyonnais.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Olympique Lyonnais.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Olympique Lyonnais."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Olympique Lyonnais more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Olympique Lyonnais (\u2191 +20.4%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.94,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 26.9 pp (at 52.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 26.9,
"max_prob_pct": 52.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"largest_gap_pp": 11.9,
"lead": "The model rates Olympique Lyonnais considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.64,
"edge_pp": -10.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.73,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Anderlecht",
"market_prob_pct": 32.37,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.29,
"edge_pp": -1.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.67,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.96,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.94,
"edge_pp": 11.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 52.61,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"market_prob_pct": 40.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Olympique Lyonnais.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Olympique Lyonnais (40.7%).",
"However, Olympique Lyonnais has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +20.4%, 9/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Olympique Lyonnais, Market \u2192 Olympique Lyonnais, while Olympique Lyonnais odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.02,
"closing_odds": 2.38,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.02,
"entry_odds": 2.38,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "9/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 43m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Olympique Lyonnais (20.4%, 9/13) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.38",
"2.15",
"1.91"
],
"display": "2.38 \u2192 1.91 \u2192 2.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 43m",
"pick_team": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.91,
2.38,
2.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.91,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/13 sportsbooks on Olympique Lyonnais",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"summary": "Market moved away from Olympique Lyonnais while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/13",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"pick_team": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_team_name": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "lyon",
"away_expected_goals": 0.23,
"away_goal_display": 2,
"away_team_display_name": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"away_team_id": 80,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/80.webp",
"away_team_name": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"away_team_public_id": "3MYav3gEwrN1WC",
"away_team_slug": "lyon",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1636212,
"goals_away": 2,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": 0.0,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Belgium",
"home_team_display_name": "Anderlecht",
"home_team_id": 554,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/554.webp",
"home_team_name": "Anderlecht",
"home_team_public_id": "2wThVseTcMKyYY",
"home_team_slug": "anderlecht",
"ht.home_team_slug": "anderlecht",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "UEFA Europa League",
"league_id": 3,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/3.webp",
"league_name": "UEFA Europa League",
"league_public_id": "0c2w5NuZLjyjGt",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 19:00:00",
"public_id": "2EOGjKz23joS2K",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Anderlecht",
"venue_name": "Lotto Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3693,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0442,
"ev": 0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4067,
"draw": 0.2696,
"home": 0.3237
},
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"p_final": 0.4508
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.294,
"best_odd": 3.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0039,
"ev": -0.0461,
"implied_prob": 0.2696,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4067,
"draw": 0.2696,
"home": 0.3237
},
"model_prob": 0.2564,
"p_final": 0.2657
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3782,
"best_odd": 2.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0402,
"ev": -0.1524,
"implied_prob": 0.3237,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4067,
"draw": 0.2696,
"home": 0.3237
},
"model_prob": 0.2174,
"p_final": 0.2835
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.1061,
"ev": 0.2525,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.5263
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.59,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.0796,
"implied_prob": 0.2786,
"model_prob": 0.2564
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.99,
"edge": -0.1171,
"ev": -0.3501,
"implied_prob": 0.3344,
"model_prob": 0.2174
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2709,
"alpha_yes": 0.3725,
"best_no_odd": 2.45,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0495,
"edge_yes": -0.0495,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0976,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0328,
"ev_yes": -0.1058,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0964,
"implied_no": 0.3985,
"implied_yes": 0.6015,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2709,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.3956,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"p_final": 0.4098
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3725,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.0964,
"implied_prob": 0.6044,
"model_prob": 0.552,
"p_final": 0.5849
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.4098,
"p_final_yes": 0.5849,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3983,
"alpha_under": 0.362,
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.28,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.19,
"edge_over": -0.0081,
"edge_under": 0.0081,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0381,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0559,
"ev_under": 0.0123,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0415,
"implied_over": 0.5641,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5659,
"implied_under": 0.4359,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4341,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3983,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0039,
"ev": -0.0559,
"implied_prob": 0.5659,
"model_prob": 0.556,
"p_final": 0.562
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.362,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0036,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.4341,
"model_prob": 0.444,
"p_final": 0.4377
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.562,
"p_final_under": 0.4377,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.91,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0976,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2525,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0976,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0976,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2525,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Olympique Lyonnais at 52.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Olympique Lyonnais as the value side (52.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Olympique Lyonnais \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.80 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636212 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.80 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Olympique Lyonnais, but the model still strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.073,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2526,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 41.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.91"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.91
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.552,
"draw_prob": 0.2564,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5263,
"over_prob": 0.556,
"total_xg": 2.91,
"under_prob": 0.444,
"xg_diff": 0.91
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0442,
"ev": 0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Olympique Lyonnais"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2709,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0142,
"market_prob": 0.3956,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.448,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2709,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.3956,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"p_final": 0.4098
},
"p_final": 0.4098,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0328,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3725,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.0964,
"implied_prob": 0.6044,
"model_prob": 0.552,
"p_final": 0.5849
}
},
"edge": 0.0495,
"ev": 0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.3985,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.362,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0036,
"market_prob": 0.4341,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.444,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3983,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0039,
"ev": -0.0559,
"implied_prob": 0.5659,
"model_prob": 0.556,
"p_final": 0.562
},
"p_final": 0.4377,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0415,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.362,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0036,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.4341,
"model_prob": 0.444,
"p_final": 0.4377
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0081,
"ev": 0.0123,
"implied_prob": 0.4359,
"model_prob": 0.444,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1636212,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0976,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5263,
"draw": 0.2564,
"home": 0.2174
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Olympique Lyonnais",
"home": "Anderlecht"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.041539,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.3985,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.448,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.073,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2526,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1636212,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T19:31:45.334738+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Anderlecht & Olympique Lyonnais!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
UEFA Europa League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvárosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI Crete | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Olympique Lyonnais | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiakos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Stade Rennais FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 | Lillestrom | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 32 | Olympique de Marseille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 34 | Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvárosi TC | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI Crete | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Olympique Lyonnais | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiakos | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Anderlecht | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Lillestrom | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Celtic | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 22 | Olympique de Marseille | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 23 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | Stade Rennais FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 26 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 27 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 28 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 30 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 34 | Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympiakos | 1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | +2.0 | 3 |
| 2 | Sunderland | 1 | 2.9 | 1.5 | +1.4 | 3 |
| 3 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | +1.0 | 3 |
| 4 | Stade Rennais FC | 1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | +1.0 | 1 |
| 5 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | +0.9 | 0 |
| 6 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 2.5 | 1.9 | +0.6 | 3 |
| 7 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | +0.5 | 1 |
| 8 | AC Milan | 1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 0 |
| 9 | Anderlecht | 1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | +0.1 | 0 |
| 10 | Olympique Lyonnais | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -0.1 | 3 |
| 11 | Benfica | 1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | -0.4 | 3 |
| 12 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | -0.5 | 1 |
| 13 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 14 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 0.3 | 1.2 | -0.9 | 3 |
| 15 | Celje | 1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | -1.0 | 0 |
| 16 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | -1.0 | 1 |
| 17 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1.5 | 2.9 | -1.4 | 0 |
| 18 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | -2.0 | 0 |
| 19 | Juventus | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 21 | Beşiktaş | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 22 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 23 | Ferencvárosi TC | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 24 | OFI Crete | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 25 | Bournemouth | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 26 | Torreense | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 27 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 28 | Real Sociedad | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 29 | Lillestrom | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 30 | Levski Sofia | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 31 | Celtic | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 32 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 33 | Olympique de Marseille | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 34 | Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
