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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Chapulineros Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.8
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Chapulineros 1–1 Celaya
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "03c6dd7cd6f67ec229ebf76fd3593df071f8e3f4aca77ec3033d632133762cc2",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Celaya and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Celaya"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Chapulineros",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1127,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2482,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 3.6
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.6,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Chapulineros Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 4.03,
"market_odds": 3.6,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 11.9,
"prob_edge": 8.3,
"value_pct": 30.0,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Chapulineros or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Chapulineros or Celaya",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Celaya",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Chapulineros or Celaya",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Chapulineros"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 3.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 30.0,
"implied_prob": 27.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Chapulineros Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 3.6
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Celaya",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 49.65,
"draw": 25.53,
"home": 24.82
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 22:59:10",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 22:29:14",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Chapulineros",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.82,
"gap_pp": 11.27,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.53,
"gap_pp": 4.14,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.65,
"gap_pp": -15.41,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.95,
"gap_pp": -5.75,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.05,
"gap_pp": 5.75,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.6,
"early": 3.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.82,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.5,
"early": 3.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.53,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.8,
"early": 1.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.65,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.65,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.75,
"early": 1.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.95,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.05,
"early": 2.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.05,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0117,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.4609,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2263,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0129,
"ev": -0.1003,
"implied_prob": 0.5391,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5262
},
"p_final": 0.4727,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.036,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0547,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4727
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.7,
"text": "-15.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0619,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10205.71,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros.",
"consensus_odds": 3.6,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0052,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.5,
"text": "-0.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2482,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0052,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.5,
"text": "-0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2992,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Chapulineros",
"sort_key": 1798.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2205,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0029,
"edge_pp": 0.3,
"market_prob": 0.4417,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2205,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0029,
"ev": -0.084,
"implied_prob": 0.4417,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4447
},
"p_final": 0.4447,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0627,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.084,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2426,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0032,
"ev": -0.0953,
"implied_prob": 0.5583,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.555
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0445,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.5,
"text": "-4.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1117,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.2,
"text": "-11.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0445,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 1788.875,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.41,
"hero_label": "Celaya",
"market_prob_pct": 24.8,
"market_team": "Celaya",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Chapulineros",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2994,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chapulineros at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chapulineros as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chapulineros",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Chapulineros \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.51 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +30% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635959 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.51 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +30% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0052,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.6,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2482,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2777777777777778,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2992,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 15.41,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 15.41,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Chapulineros",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2994,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chapulineros at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chapulineros as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chapulineros",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Chapulineros \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.51 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +30% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635959 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.51 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +30% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0052,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.6,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2482,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2777777777777778,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2992,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chapulineros 1.32 xG vs Celaya 1.28 \u2192 Chapulineros 36.1%",
"Market: Celaya ~24.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Chapulineros +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Chapulineros, but market pricing diverges by 15 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 11.29,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Chapulineros",
"market_prob": 24.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.12,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.41,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Celaya",
"market_prob": 49.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.71,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.71,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.38,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.88,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.38,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.12,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -15.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Celaya",
"market_prob_pct": 49.65,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Chapulineros"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Celaya\u0027s win probability at 49.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 15.41,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Chapulineros",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 24.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+11.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 11.3,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+11.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chapulineros 1.32 xG vs Celaya 1.28 \u2192 Chapulineros 36.1%",
"Market: Celaya ~24.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Chapulineros +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Chapulineros, but market pricing diverges by 15 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.41,
"hero_label": "Celaya",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Chapulineros has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Celaya than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Chapulineros.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Celaya than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Chapulineros has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Chapulineros."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Celaya more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Chapulineros has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Chapulineros."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.41,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Celaya",
"largest_gap_pp": -15.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Celaya higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 11.29,
"edge_pp": 11.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Chapulineros",
"market_prob_pct": 24.82,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.12,
"edge_pp": 4.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.53,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -15.41,
"edge_pp": -15.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Celaya",
"market_prob_pct": 49.65,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Chapulineros.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Celaya (24.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Chapulineros, Market \u2192 Celaya, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.56,
"closing_odds": 1.8,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.56,
"entry_odds": 1.8,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Chapulineros",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Chapulineros",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "celaya",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Celaya",
"away_team_id": 2308,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2308.webp",
"away_team_name": "Celaya",
"away_team_public_id": "20ccn8HM7XsW3B",
"away_team_slug": "celaya",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1635959,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Chapulineros",
"home_team_id": 26525,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26525.webp",
"home_team_name": "Chapulineros",
"home_team_public_id": "4iQgCJ4ezZzOH4",
"home_team_slug": "chapulineros",
"ht.home_team_slug": "chapulineros",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i V\u00f4 \u0111\u1ecbch Qu\u1ed1c gia Mexico",
"league_id": 1242,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1242.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i V\u00f4 \u0111\u1ecbch Qu\u1ed1c gia Mexico",
"league_public_id": "5nWmYlLYwv9X6d",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 23:00:00",
"public_id": "2drhg0UcLdLb4D",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4613,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0711,
"ev": -0.2343,
"implied_prob": 0.4965,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4965,
"draw": 0.2553,
"home": 0.2482
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4254
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2814,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0657,
"implied_prob": 0.2553,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4965,
"draw": 0.2553,
"home": 0.2482
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.267
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2493,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": -0.0052,
"implied_prob": 0.2482,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4965,
"draw": 0.2553,
"home": 0.2482
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.2763
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.2132,
"ev": -0.3837,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": 0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0832,
"ev": 0.2994,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2205,
"alpha_yes": 0.2426,
"best_no_odd": 2.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.63,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0138,
"edge_yes": -0.0138,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0445,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.084,
"ev_yes": -0.1117,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0953,
"implied_no": 0.4412,
"implied_yes": 0.5588,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2205,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0029,
"ev": -0.084,
"implied_prob": 0.4417,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4447
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2426,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0032,
"ev": -0.0953,
"implied_prob": 0.5583,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.555
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4447,
"p_final_yes": 0.555,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2263,
"alpha_under": 0.2057,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.71,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.0,
"edge_over": -0.0571,
"edge_under": 0.0571,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1003,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0547,
"implied_over": 0.5391,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5391,
"implied_under": 0.4609,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4609,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2263,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0129,
"ev": -0.1003,
"implied_prob": 0.5391,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5262
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4727
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5262,
"p_final_under": 0.4727,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2994,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2994,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chapulineros at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chapulineros as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chapulineros",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Chapulineros \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.51 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +30% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635959 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.51 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +30% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Chapulineros, but the model still strongly favours Chapulineros.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0052,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.6,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2482,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2777777777777778,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2992,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.6,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": -0.0052,
"implied_prob": 0.2482,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Chapulineros"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2205,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0029,
"market_prob": 0.4417,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2205,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0029,
"ev": -0.084,
"implied_prob": 0.4417,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4447
},
"p_final": 0.4447,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.084,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2426,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0032,
"ev": -0.0953,
"implied_prob": 0.5583,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.555
}
},
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0117,
"market_prob": 0.4609,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2263,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0129,
"ev": -0.1003,
"implied_prob": 0.5391,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5262
},
"p_final": 0.4727,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0547,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4727
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0571,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1635959,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Celaya",
"home": "Chapulineros"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0052,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.6,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2482,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2777777777777778,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2992,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635959,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T22:59:11.873755+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Chapulineros & Celaya!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Vô địch Quốc gia Mexico — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irapuato | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Celaya | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Racing de Veracruz | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Zacatepec 1948 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Pioneros de Cancún | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Reboceros La Piedad | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Los Cabos United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Tigres de Alica | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Montañeses | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Deportiva Venados | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Tapachula | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Tritons Vallarta | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 14 | Chapulineros | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 15 | Lobos ULMX | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | Cordobés | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 17 | H2O Purepechas | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing de Veracruz | 4 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 10 |
| 2 | Irapuato | 5 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 15 |
| 3 | Pioneros de Cancún | 4 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 9 |
| 4 | Celaya | 5 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 5 | Montañeses | 5 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Reboceros La Piedad | 4 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 7 | Tigres de Alica | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Deportiva Venados | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Zacatepec 1948 | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 | Los Cabos United | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 11 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Lobos ULMX | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 13 | Chapulineros | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
| 14 | Tapachula | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 |
| 15 | Tritons Vallarta | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Cordobés | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 1 |
| 18 | H2O Purepechas | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 |
