Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (8 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 GBK GBK ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-5 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.58
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
GBK win · Huima / Urho 3–5 GBK
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "4ed5da2e56c51b19bc8cff8ac11116f202cc69d4369e806ccd03edb886214e7a",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Huima / Urho and +2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Huima / Urho"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "GBK",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1403,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2257,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.01
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.01,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "GBK Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.43,
"market_odds": 4.01,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 10.5,
"prob_edge": 11.7,
"value_pct": 46.9,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 22,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 22,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Huima / Urho or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Huima / Urho or GBK",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or GBK",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Huima / Urho or GBK",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "GBK"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+2.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 3.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 46.9,
"implied_prob": 24.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "GBK Win",
"model_prob": 36.6,
"odds": 4.01
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "GBK",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 22.57,
"draw": 20.16,
"home": 57.28
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 13:04:29",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 12:35:19",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Huima / Urho",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.28,
"gap_pp": -23.52,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.16,
"gap_pp": 9.49,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.57,
"gap_pp": 14.03,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.58,
"early": 1.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.28,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.28,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.49,
"early": 4.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 20.16,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 20.16,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.01,
"early": 4.01,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.57,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 4.8,
"ev": 0.625,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 13.0,
"market_prob": 0.0769,
"market_prob_pct": 7.7,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.1,
"edge": 0.0238,
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"market_prob": 0.2205,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"best_odd": 1.16,
"edge": -0.0408,
"ev": -0.1431,
"implied_prob": 0.7795,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7387
},
"p_final": 0.2443,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1238,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0018,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.1,
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": 0.0018,
"implied_prob": 0.2205,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2443
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.412,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -41.2,
"text": "-41.2%"
},
"ev_under": 1.331,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 133.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 1.331,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 11347.9,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0801,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.505,
"edge": 0.0154,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.2629,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0801,
"best_odd": 3.505,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0247,
"implied_prob": 0.2629,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2783
},
"p_final": 0.2783,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5948,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0247,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1762,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0338,
"ev": -0.1209,
"implied_prob": 0.7371,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7033
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.6562,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 65.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2915,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -29.1,
"text": "-29.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.6562,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10590.58,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 4.01,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0062,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.6,
"text": "-0.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0062,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.6,
"text": "-0.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4677,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "GBK",
"sort_key": 1798.45,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -33.3%",
"alert_team": "GBK",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 23.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -23.51,
"hero_label": "Huima / Urho",
"market_prob_pct": 22.6,
"market_team": "Huima / Urho",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "GBK",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 95,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (GBK), but pricing still diverges by 23.5 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (GBK), but pricing still diverges by 23.5 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates GBK at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies GBK as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "GBK",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.3% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.3% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (GBK), but pricing still diverges by 23.5 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0062,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24937655860349128,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4677,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (24 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 13.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 23.51,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 23.51,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -33.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -33.3%",
"steam_team": "GBK",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (GBK), but pricing still diverges by 23.5 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (GBK), but pricing still diverges by 23.5 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (GBK), but pricing still diverges by 23.5 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates GBK at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies GBK as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "GBK",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.3% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.3% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (GBK), but pricing still diverges by 23.5 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0062,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24937655860349128,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4677,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Huima / Urho 1.27 xG vs GBK 1.33 \u2192 GBK 36.6%",
"Market: Huima / Urho ~22.6% implied",
"Market Steam: GBK \u2193 -33.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans GBK, but market pricing diverges by 24 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -23.51,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Huima / Urho",
"market_prob": 57.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.48,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.02,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "GBK",
"market_prob": 22.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -30.01,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 78.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 30.01,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 21.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.18,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 73.68,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.18,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 26.32,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -23.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Huima / Urho",
"market_prob_pct": 57.28,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "GBK"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Huima / Urho\u0027s win probability at 57.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 23.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 23.51,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "GBK",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "GBK \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Huima / Urho 1.27 xG vs GBK 1.33 \u2192 GBK 36.6%",
"Market: Huima / Urho ~22.6% implied",
"Market Steam: GBK \u2193 -33.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans GBK, but market pricing diverges by 24 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -23.51,
"hero_label": "Huima / Urho",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "GBK odds shortened \u2193 -33.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 23.51,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Huima / Urho",
"largest_gap_pp": -23.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Huima / Urho higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 23.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -23.51,
"edge_pp": -23.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Huima / Urho",
"market_prob_pct": 57.28,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.48,
"edge_pp": 9.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.16,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 14.02,
"edge_pp": 14.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "GBK",
"market_prob_pct": 22.57,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Huima / Urho (22.6%).",
"However, GBK has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -33.3%, 7/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 GBK, Market \u2192 Huima / Urho, Recent sharp money \u2192 GBK.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 63.29,
"closing_odds": 1.58,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 63.29,
"entry_odds": 1.58,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -36.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -36.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -34.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -34.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -33.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -33.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -32.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -32.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -24.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -24.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -33.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 33.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 29h 38m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/8 books synchronized on GBK (33.3% steam, score 95) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -33.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.00",
"5.00",
"4.00"
],
"display": "7.50 \u2192 4.00 \u2192 4.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 29h 38m",
"pick_team": "GBK",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
6.0,
4.01,
4.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,17.9 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 6.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: GBK \u2193 -33.3% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "GBK",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: GBK \u2193 -33.3% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -33.3%",
"open_odds": 6.0,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "GBK",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 95,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -33.3%",
"open_odds": 6.0,
"pick_team": "GBK",
"steam_score": 95,
"steam_team_name": "GBK",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 23.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "gbk",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "GBK",
"away_team_id": 9191,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9191.webp",
"away_team_name": "GBK",
"away_team_public_id": "2fynznD0rEL1sS",
"away_team_slug": "gbk",
"country_code": "FI",
"country_display_name": "Finland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
"country_id": 55,
"country_name": "Finland",
"fixture_id": 1635477,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Finland",
"home_team_display_name": "Huima / Urho",
"home_team_id": 22980,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22980.webp",
"home_team_name": "Huima / Urho",
"home_team_public_id": "2pMZVIRaDTgP3p",
"home_team_slug": "huima-urho",
"ht.home_team_slug": "huima-urho",
"league_country": "Finland",
"league_country_display": "Finland",
"league_display_name": "Kakkonen - Lohko C",
"league_id": 249,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/249.webp",
"league_name": "Kakkonen - Lohko C",
"league_public_id": "3SdZbyQIYvWtGX",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:00:00",
"public_id": "39VvB1eSCIvgpk",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Aanekosken liikuntatalo"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1579,
"best_odd": 4.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": -0.0062,
"implied_prob": 0.2257,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2257,
"draw": 0.2016,
"home": 0.5728
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.2478
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1715,
"best_odd": 4.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": -0.0219,
"implied_prob": 0.2016,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2257,
"draw": 0.2016,
"home": 0.5728
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2178
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3883,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0913,
"ev": -0.2393,
"implied_prob": 0.5728,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2257,
"draw": 0.2016,
"home": 0.5728
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.4814
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.01,
"edge": 0.1166,
"ev": 0.4676,
"implied_prob": 0.2494,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.49,
"edge": 0.0738,
"ev": 0.3312,
"implied_prob": 0.2227,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.2954,
"ev": -0.4667,
"implied_prob": 0.6329,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.0801,
"alpha_yes": 0.1762,
"best_no_odd": 3.64,
"best_yes_odd": 1.3,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1918,
"edge_yes": -0.1918,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.6562,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0247,
"ev_yes": -0.2915,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1209,
"implied_no": 0.2632,
"implied_yes": 0.7368,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0801,
"best_odd": 3.505,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0247,
"implied_prob": 0.2629,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2783
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1762,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0338,
"ev": -0.1209,
"implied_prob": 0.7371,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7033
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.2783,
"p_final_yes": 0.7033,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1371,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.22,
"best_under_odd": 4.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.16,
"consensus_under_odd": 4.1,
"edge_over": -0.3001,
"edge_under": 0.3001,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.412,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1431,
"ev_under": 1.331,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0018,
"implied_over": 0.7821,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7795,
"implied_under": 0.2179,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2205,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"best_odd": 1.16,
"edge": -0.0408,
"ev": -0.1431,
"implied_prob": 0.7795,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7387
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.1,
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": 0.0018,
"implied_prob": 0.2205,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2443
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7387,
"p_final_under": 0.2443,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.331,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.331,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.331,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (GBK), but pricing still diverges by 23.5 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates GBK at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies GBK as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "GBK",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.3% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.3% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (GBK), but pricing still diverges by 23.5 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0062,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24937655860349128,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4677,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.01,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": -0.0062,
"implied_prob": 0.2257,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "GBK"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0801,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.505,
"edge": 0.0154,
"market_prob": 0.2629,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0801,
"best_odd": 3.505,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0247,
"implied_prob": 0.2629,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2783
},
"p_final": 0.2783,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0247,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1762,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0338,
"ev": -0.1209,
"implied_prob": 0.7371,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7033
}
},
"edge": 0.1918,
"ev": 0.6562,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.1,
"edge": 0.0238,
"market_prob": 0.2205,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"best_odd": 1.16,
"edge": -0.0408,
"ev": -0.1431,
"implied_prob": 0.7795,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7387
},
"p_final": 0.2443,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0018,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.1,
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": 0.0018,
"implied_prob": 0.2205,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2443
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.3001,
"ev": 1.331,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2179,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1635477,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.331,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6562,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6562,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "GBK",
"home": "Huima / Urho"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.482621,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.331,
"implied_prob": 0.2179,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0062,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24937655860349128,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4677,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635477,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:04:30.878382+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Huima / Urho & GBK!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Kakkonen - Lohko C — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huima / Urho | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 36 |
| 2 | GBK | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 32 |
| 3 | JBK | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 31 |
| 4 | VPS II | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | Jaro 2 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 6 | Kraft | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 7 | TP-47 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 8 | Vaajakoski | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 9 | JS Hercules | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 10 | SJK-juniorit | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huima / Urho | 18 | 50 | 26 | +24 | 36 |
| 2 | Kraft | 18 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 23 |
| 3 | VPS II | 18 | 47 | 36 | +11 | 25 |
| 4 | GBK | 18 | 43 | 33 | +10 | 32 |
| 5 | JBK | 18 | 37 | 24 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 | Vaajakoski | 18 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 21 |
| 7 | Jaro 2 | 18 | 33 | 54 | -21 | 25 |
| 8 | JS Hercules | 18 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 21 |
| 9 | TP-47 | 18 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 23 |
| 10 | SJK-juniorit | 18 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 19 |
