Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (8 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 SJK-juniorit SJK-juniorit ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-5 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.29
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
SJK-juniorit win · JS Hercules 3–5 SJK-juniorit
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "c4dd92e4e60233e545a9e01587015941d02c1fc56f1df2c94e48706df2bdc318",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.42,
"away_win_prob": 0.4091,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.459,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.294,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.44,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.37,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.18,
"home_win_prob": 0.2969,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or SJK-juniorit",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "SJK-juniorit"
},
"away_xg": 1.42,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "SJK-juniorit",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0514,
"edge_gap": 0.113,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4609,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.0,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 29.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.99
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.99,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "SJK-juniorit Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.17,
"market_odds": 1.99,
"model_odds": 2.44,
"overround": 9.0,
"prob_edge": -9.3,
"value_pct": -18.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 20,
"away_score_rate": 75.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 20,
"home_score_rate": 69.3,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.42,
"home_expected": 1.18,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "JS Hercules or Draw",
"prob": 59.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "JS Hercules or SJK-juniorit",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or SJK-juniorit",
"prob": 70.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "JS Hercules or SJK-juniorit",
"pick_prob": 70.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 40.9,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 29.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "SJK-juniorit"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 26.1,
"implied_prob": 23.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.4,
"odds": 4.29
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "SJK-juniorit",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 46.09,
"draw": 21.38,
"home": 32.53
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 11:02:35",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 10:32:55",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "JS Hercules",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.53,
"gap_pp": -2.87,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.38,
"gap_pp": 8.01,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.39
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.09,
"gap_pp": -5.14,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 40.96
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.82,
"early": 2.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.53,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.29,
"early": 4.29,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.38,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.09,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 3.3,
"ev": 0.364,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 11.0,
"market_prob": 0.0909,
"market_prob_pct": 9.1,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.18,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0208,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.2585,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"best_odd": 1.22,
"edge": -0.0392,
"ev": -0.1432,
"implied_prob": 0.7415,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7023
},
"p_final": 0.2792,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 25.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.813,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0227,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0227,
"implied_prob": 0.2585,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2792
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3975,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -39.8,
"text": "-39.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.9425,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 94.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.9425,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10998.25,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0158,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.2616,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0291,
"implied_prob": 0.2616,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.2774
},
"p_final": 0.2774,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6065,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0291,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1742,
"best_odd": 1.24,
"edge": -0.0344,
"ev": -0.127,
"implied_prob": 0.7384,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.704
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.7212,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 72.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.3075,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -30.8,
"text": "-30.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.7212,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 10649.08,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1394,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.9,
"text": "-13.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0223,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.2,
"text": "-2.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1849,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "SJK-juniorit",
"sort_key": 1794.425,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"alert_team": "SJK-juniorit",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.02,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 46.1,
"market_team": "SJK-juniorit",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "SJK-juniorit",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9425,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9425,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SJK-juniorit at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SJK-juniorit as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SJK-juniorit",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +94.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +94.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+94.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1394,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1849,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.02,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.02,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.42,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.18,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.18 \u00b7 Away xG 1.42 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"steam_team": "SJK-juniorit",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9425,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9425,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SJK-juniorit at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SJK-juniorit as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SJK-juniorit",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +94.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +94.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+94.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1394,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1849,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: JS Hercules 1.18 xG vs SJK-juniorit 1.42 \u2192 SJK-juniorit 40.9%",
"Market: SJK-juniorit ~46.1% implied",
"Market Steam: SJK-juniorit \u2193 -3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean SJK-juniorit with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.84,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "JS Hercules",
"market_prob": 32.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.02,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.18,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "SJK-juniorit",
"market_prob": 46.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -26.25,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 74.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 26.25,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 25.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.98,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 74.08,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.98,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 25.92,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.38,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "SJK-juniorit"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 21.4%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.02,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "SJK-juniorit",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.2,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "SJK-juniorit \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: JS Hercules 1.18 xG vs SJK-juniorit 1.42 \u2192 SJK-juniorit 40.9%",
"Market: SJK-juniorit ~46.1% implied",
"Market Steam: SJK-juniorit \u2193 -3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean SJK-juniorit with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.02,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "SJK-juniorit odds shortened \u2193 -3.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on SJK-juniorit, with odds shortening by 3.0%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Buying interest on SJK-juniorit \u2014 odds shortened by 3.0%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on SJK-juniorit, with odds shortening by 3.0%.",
"Buying interest on SJK-juniorit \u2014 odds shortened by 3.0%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, SJK-juniorit has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 3.0%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on SJK-juniorit."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.02,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.0,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.84,
"edge_pp": -2.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "JS Hercules",
"market_prob_pct": 32.53,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.02,
"edge_pp": 8.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.38,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.18,
"edge_pp": -5.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "SJK-juniorit",
"market_prob_pct": 46.09,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on SJK-juniorit \u2014 odds shortened by 3.0%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers SJK-juniorit (46.1%).",
"SJK-juniorit has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.0%, 6/8).",
"SJK-juniorit \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 23.31,
"closing_odds": 4.29,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.31,
"entry_odds": 4.29,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.5
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 25h 40m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on SJK-juniorit (3.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.70",
"2.35",
"1.99"
],
"display": "3.25 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 25h 40m",
"pick_team": "SJK-juniorit",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
1.99,
2.62
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,2.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.99"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 6/8 sportsbooks on SJK-juniorit",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "SJK-juniorit",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "SJK-juniorit",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "SJK-juniorit",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "SJK-juniorit",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sjk-juniorit",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "SJK-juniorit",
"away_team_id": 18609,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18609.webp",
"away_team_name": "SJK-juniorit",
"away_team_public_id": "4NdhxLCVu8TEJg",
"away_team_slug": "sjk-juniorit",
"country_code": "FI",
"country_display_name": "Finland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
"country_id": 55,
"country_name": "Finland",
"fixture_id": 1635475,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Finland",
"home_team_display_name": "JS Hercules",
"home_team_id": 6073,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6073.webp",
"home_team_name": "JS Hercules",
"home_team_public_id": "3Fq0pBrbmyfJ8a",
"home_team_slug": "js-hercules",
"ht.home_team_slug": "js-hercules",
"league_country": "Finland",
"league_country_display": "Finland",
"league_display_name": "Kakkonen - Lohko C",
"league_id": 249,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/249.webp",
"league_name": "Kakkonen - Lohko C",
"league_public_id": "3SdZbyQIYvWtGX",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 11:00:00",
"public_id": "58hMgoFr3g4e57",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Oulu",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5538,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0284,
"ev": -0.1394,
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4609,
"draw": 0.2138,
"home": 0.3253
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.4325
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.176,
"best_odd": 4.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0223,
"implied_prob": 0.2138,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4609,
"draw": 0.2138,
"home": 0.3253
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2279
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4306,
"best_odd": 2.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.3253,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4609,
"draw": 0.2138,
"home": 0.3253
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3129
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": -0.093,
"ev": -0.185,
"implied_prob": 0.5025,
"model_prob": 0.4096
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.29,
"edge": 0.0608,
"ev": 0.2609,
"implied_prob": 0.2331,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.82,
"edge": -0.0581,
"ev": -0.1638,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.2965
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.1742,
"best_no_odd": 3.75,
"best_yes_odd": 1.28,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1998,
"edge_yes": -0.1998,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.7212,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0291,
"ev_yes": -0.3075,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.127,
"implied_no": 0.2592,
"implied_yes": 0.7408,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0291,
"implied_prob": 0.2616,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.2774
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1742,
"best_odd": 1.24,
"edge": -0.0344,
"ev": -0.127,
"implied_prob": 0.7384,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.704
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.2774,
"p_final_yes": 0.704,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1512,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.25,
"best_under_odd": 3.75,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.22,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.5,
"edge_over": -0.2625,
"edge_under": 0.2625,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3975,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1432,
"ev_under": 0.9425,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0227,
"implied_over": 0.7445,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7415,
"implied_under": 0.2555,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2585,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"best_odd": 1.22,
"edge": -0.0392,
"ev": -0.1432,
"implied_prob": 0.7415,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7023
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0227,
"implied_prob": 0.2585,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2792
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7023,
"p_final_under": 0.2792,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9425,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9425,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.9425,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9425,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9425,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SJK-juniorit at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SJK-juniorit as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SJK-juniorit",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +94.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +94.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+94.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1394,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1849,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0284,
"ev": -0.1394,
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "SJK-juniorit"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0158,
"market_prob": 0.2616,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0291,
"implied_prob": 0.2616,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.2774
},
"p_final": 0.2774,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0291,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1742,
"best_odd": 1.24,
"edge": -0.0344,
"ev": -0.127,
"implied_prob": 0.7384,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.704
}
},
"edge": 0.1998,
"ev": 0.7212,
"implied_prob": 0.2592,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0208,
"market_prob": 0.2585,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"best_odd": 1.22,
"edge": -0.0392,
"ev": -0.1432,
"implied_prob": 0.7415,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7023
},
"p_final": 0.2792,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0227,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0227,
"implied_prob": 0.2585,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2792
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2625,
"ev": 0.9425,
"implied_prob": 0.2555,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1635475,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.9425,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4096,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.2965
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7212,
"implied_prob": 0.2592,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7212,
"implied_prob": 0.2592,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "SJK-juniorit",
"home": "JS Hercules"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.341751,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.9425,
"implied_prob": 0.2555,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1394,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1849,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635475,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T11:02:36.894631+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho JS Hercules & SJK-juniorit!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Kakkonen - Lohko C — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huima / Urho | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 36 |
| 2 | GBK | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 32 |
| 3 | JBK | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 31 |
| 4 | VPS II | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | Jaro 2 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 6 | Kraft | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 7 | TP-47 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 8 | Vaajakoski | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 9 | JS Hercules | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 10 | SJK-juniorit | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huima / Urho | 18 | 50 | 26 | +24 | 36 |
| 2 | Kraft | 18 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 23 |
| 3 | VPS II | 18 | 47 | 36 | +11 | 25 |
| 4 | GBK | 18 | 43 | 33 | +10 | 32 |
| 5 | JBK | 18 | 37 | 24 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 | Vaajakoski | 18 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 21 |
| 7 | Jaro 2 | 18 | 33 | 54 | -21 | 25 |
| 8 | JS Hercules | 18 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 21 |
| 9 | TP-47 | 18 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 23 |
| 10 | SJK-juniorit | 18 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 19 |
