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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Cuniburo Cuniburo ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.15
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Cuniburo win · Cuniburo 1–0 9 de Octubre
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.22,
"away_win_prob": 0.3148,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.18,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.57,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.38,
"home_win_prob": 0.3897,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Cuniburo or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Cuniburo"
},
"away_xg": 1.22,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Cuniburo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.046,
"edge_gap": 0.0747,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4356,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.5,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 39.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.1
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.1,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Cuniburo Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.3,
"market_odds": 2.1,
"model_odds": 2.57,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": -8.7,
"value_pct": -18.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 13,
"away_failed_to_score": 9,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 70.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 24,
"home_score_rate": 74.8,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.22,
"home_expected": 1.38,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Cuniburo or Draw",
"prob": 68.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Cuniburo or 9 de Octubre",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or 9 de Octubre",
"prob": 61.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Cuniburo or 9 de Octubre",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.5,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Cuniburo"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 30.7,
"implied_prob": 24.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "9 de Octubre Win",
"model_prob": 31.5,
"odds": 4.15
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "9 de Octubre",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 22.04,
"draw": 34.39,
"home": 43.56
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-17 20:14:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-17 19:44:01",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Cuniburo",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.56,
"gap_pp": -4.6,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.39,
"gap_pp": -4.85,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.54
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.04,
"gap_pp": 9.45,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.4,
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 70.6,
"gap_pp": -18.8,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.1,
"early": 2.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.56,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.66,
"early": 2.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.39,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.39,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.15,
"early": 4.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.04,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 3.17,
"early": 3.17,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.4,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.4,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.32,
"early": 1.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 70.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 70.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.38,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.14,
"edge": 0.0154,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.2896,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.14,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0423,
"implied_prob": 0.2896,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.305
},
"p_final": 0.305,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5135,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0423,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1761,
"best_odd": 1.28,
"edge": -0.0339,
"ev": -0.134,
"implied_prob": 0.7104,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6765
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.5906,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 59.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.5906,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10531.54,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1322,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0234,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.367,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1818,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1378,
"implied_prob": 0.633,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.6008
},
"p_final": 0.3904,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3464,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0337,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1322,
"best_odd": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0337,
"implied_prob": 0.367,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.3904
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3388,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -33.9,
"text": "-33.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.3872,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 38.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3872,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10498.48,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1256,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.6,
"text": "-12.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4356,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0179,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.8,
"text": "-1.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1816,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Cuniburo",
"sort_key": 1795.525,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +21.9%",
"alert_team": "9 de Octubre",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.44,
"hero_label": "9 de Octubre",
"market_prob_pct": 43.6,
"market_team": "Cuniburo",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Cuniburo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5906,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5906,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cuniburo at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cuniburo as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cuniburo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +59.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +59.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+59.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1256,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4356,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1816,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.44,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.44,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +21.9%",
"steam_team": "9 de Octubre",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5906,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5906,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cuniburo at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cuniburo as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cuniburo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +59.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +59.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+59.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1256,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4356,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1816,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cuniburo 1.38 xG vs 9 de Octubre 1.22 \u2192 Cuniburo 39.0%",
"Market: Cuniburo ~43.6% implied",
"Market Drift: 9 de Octubre odds \u2191 +21.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cuniburo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.59,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Cuniburo",
"market_prob": 43.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.85,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 34.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.44,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "9 de Octubre",
"market_prob": 22.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.83,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 30.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.83,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 69.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.71,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 36.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.71,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 63.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "9 de Octubre",
"market_prob_pct": 22.04,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "9 de Octubre"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates 9 de Octubre\u0027s win probability at 31.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.0%, a difference of 9.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.44,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Cuniburo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.6,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Cuniburo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cuniburo 1.38 xG vs 9 de Octubre 1.22 \u2192 Cuniburo 39.0%",
"Market: Cuniburo ~43.6% implied",
"Market Drift: 9 de Octubre odds \u2191 +21.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cuniburo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.44,
"hero_label": "9 de Octubre",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "9 de Octubre odds lengthened \u2191 +21.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on 9 de Octubre.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on 9 de Octubre.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on 9 de Octubre.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on 9 de Octubre."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on 9 de Octubre.",
"Recent line movement on 9 de Octubre (\u2191 +21.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on 9 de Octubre."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.44,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "9 de Octubre",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.4,
"lead": "The model rates 9 de Octubre considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.59,
"edge_pp": -4.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Cuniburo",
"market_prob_pct": 43.56,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.85,
"edge_pp": -4.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.39,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.44,
"edge_pp": 9.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "9 de Octubre",
"market_prob_pct": 22.04,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on 9 de Octubre.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cuniburo (43.6%).",
"However, 9 de Octubre has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +21.9%, 8/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Cuniburo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 24.1,
"closing_odds": 4.15,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 24.1,
"entry_odds": 4.15,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 21.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 5h 43m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/8 books lengthened 9 de Octubre together (21.9% drift, score 89) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.15",
"3.68",
"3.20"
],
"display": "4.15 \u2192 3.20 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 5h 43m",
"pick_team": "9 de Octubre",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.15"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
4.15,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: 9 de Octubre odds \u2191 +21.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "9 de Octubre",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: 9 de Octubre odds \u2191 +21.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.9%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "9 de Octubre",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.9%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "9 de Octubre",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_team_name": "9 de Octubre",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "9-de-octubre",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "9 de Octubre",
"away_team_id": 10111,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10111.webp",
"away_team_name": "9 de Octubre",
"away_team_public_id": "0fz2GJxIGCoHSq",
"away_team_slug": "9-de-octubre",
"country_code": "EC",
"country_display_name": "Ecuador",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ec.svg",
"country_id": 46,
"country_name": "Ecuador",
"fixture_id": 1632431,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ecuador",
"home_team_display_name": "Cuniburo",
"home_team_id": 21103,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/21103.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cuniburo",
"home_team_public_id": "3DLcktEqH0JaTB",
"home_team_slug": "cuniburo",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cuniburo",
"league_country": "Ecuador",
"league_country_display": "Ecuador",
"league_display_name": "Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador",
"league_id": 243,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/243.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador",
"league_public_id": "5vQVlffQy0raFb",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-17 20:15:00",
"public_id": "1XH8qN47cQqqAO",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Quito",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1717,
"best_odd": 4.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0179,
"implied_prob": 0.2204,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2204,
"draw": 0.3439,
"home": 0.4356
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2367
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4173,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.139,
"implied_prob": 0.3439,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2204,
"draw": 0.3439,
"home": 0.4356
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.3237
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.419,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0193,
"ev": -0.1256,
"implied_prob": 0.4356,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2204,
"draw": 0.3439,
"home": 0.4356
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4164
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.15,
"edge": 0.074,
"ev": 0.3069,
"implied_prob": 0.241,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": -0.0805,
"ev": -0.2142,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.0865,
"ev": -0.1817,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1818,
"alpha_yes": 0.1322,
"best_no_odd": 1.45,
"best_yes_odd": 2.55,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1771,
"edge_yes": 0.1771,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3388,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1378,
"ev_yes": 0.3872,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0337,
"implied_no": 0.6331,
"implied_yes": 0.3669,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1818,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1378,
"implied_prob": 0.633,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.6008
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1322,
"best_odd": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0337,
"implied_prob": 0.367,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.3904
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.6008,
"p_final_yes": 0.3904,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.08,
"alpha_under": 0.1761,
"best_over_odd": 3.3,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 3.14,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.28,
"edge_over": 0.1783,
"edge_under": -0.1783,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.5906,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0423,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.134,
"implied_over": 0.3037,
"implied_over_mf": 0.2896,
"implied_under": 0.6963,
"implied_under_mf": 0.7104,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.14,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0423,
"implied_prob": 0.2896,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.305
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1761,
"best_odd": 1.28,
"edge": -0.0339,
"ev": -0.134,
"implied_prob": 0.7104,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6765
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.305,
"p_final_under": 0.6765,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5906,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5906,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5906,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5906,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5906,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cuniburo at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cuniburo as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cuniburo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +59.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +59.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+59.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1256,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4356,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1816,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0193,
"ev": -0.1256,
"implied_prob": 0.4356,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Cuniburo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1322,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0234,
"market_prob": 0.367,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1818,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1378,
"implied_prob": 0.633,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.6008
},
"p_final": 0.3904,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0337,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1322,
"best_odd": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0337,
"implied_prob": 0.367,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.3904
}
},
"edge": 0.1771,
"ev": 0.3872,
"implied_prob": 0.3669,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.14,
"edge": 0.0154,
"market_prob": 0.2896,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.14,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0423,
"implied_prob": 0.2896,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.305
},
"p_final": 0.305,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0423,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1761,
"best_odd": 1.28,
"edge": -0.0339,
"ev": -0.134,
"implied_prob": 0.7104,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6765
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1783,
"ev": 0.5906,
"implied_prob": 0.3037,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1632431,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5906,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5906,
"implied_prob": 0.3037,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5906,
"implied_prob": 0.3037,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "9 de Octubre",
"home": "Cuniburo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.210637,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3872,
"implied_prob": 0.3669,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1256,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4356,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1816,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632431,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T20:14:06.637321+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Cuniburo & 9 de Octubre!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Juniors | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 39 |
| 2 | Atlético FC | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 38 |
| 3 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 37 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| 5 | Cuniburo | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 31 |
| 7 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 28 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Cumbayá | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 26 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 12 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Juniors | 22 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 39 |
| 2 | Atlético FC | 22 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 | Cuniburo | 22 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 31 |
| 4 | San Antonio | 22 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 31 |
| 5 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 37 |
| 6 | Cumbayá | 22 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 26 |
| 7 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 34 |
| 8 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 29 |
| 9 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 28 |
| 10 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 27 |
| 11 | El Nacional | 22 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 12 |
| 12 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 15 |
