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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Cuniburo Cuniburo ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.5
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Cuniburo win · Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 0–2 Cuniburo
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.38,
"away_win_prob": 0.3897,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.57,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.18,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.22,
"home_win_prob": 0.3148,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Cuniburo and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Cuniburo"
},
"away_xg": 1.38,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Cuniburo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0355,
"edge_gap": 0.0747,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3542,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 39.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 31.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.5
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.5,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Cuniburo Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.82,
"market_odds": 2.5,
"model_odds": 2.57,
"overround": 12.9,
"prob_edge": -1.1,
"value_pct": -2.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 10,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 74.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 11,
"home_failed_to_score": 12,
"home_played": 24,
"home_score_rate": 70.5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.38,
"home_expected": 1.22,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Deportivo Cuenca Juniors or Draw",
"prob": 61.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Deportivo Cuenca Juniors or Cuniburo",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Cuniburo",
"prob": 68.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Deportivo Cuenca Juniors or Cuniburo",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.0,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 31.5,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Cuniburo"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": -2.7,
"implied_prob": 40.0,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Cuniburo Win",
"model_prob": 38.9,
"odds": 2.5
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Cuniburo",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 35.42,
"draw": 30.53,
"home": 34.05
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 19:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 19:00:41",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Deportivo Cuenca Juniors",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.05,
"gap_pp": -2.56,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.53,
"gap_pp": -0.99,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.54
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.42,
"gap_pp": 3.55,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.5,
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.5,
"gap_pp": -10.7,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.6,
"early": 2.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.05,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.9,
"early": 2.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.53,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.5,
"early": 2.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.42,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.5,
"early": 2.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.5,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.5,
"early": 1.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.22,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1058,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0113,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.375,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1058,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0342,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3863
},
"p_final": 0.3863,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.205,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0342,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1454,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6094
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.205,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 20.5,
"text": "+20.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.205,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10334.5,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0768,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.7,
"text": "-7.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3542,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0768,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.7,
"text": "-7.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Cuniburo",
"sort_key": 1780.8,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.55,
"hero_label": "Cuniburo",
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"market_team": "Cuniburo",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Cuniburo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cuniburo at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cuniburo as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cuniburo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0768,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3542,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/1",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.55,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.55,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.38,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.38 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Deportivo Cuenca Juniors",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cuniburo at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cuniburo as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cuniburo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0768,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3542,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 1.22 xG vs Cuniburo 1.38 \u2192 Cuniburo 39.0%",
"Market: Cuniburo ~35.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Deportivo Cuenca Juniors +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cuniburo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.57,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Deportivo Cuenca Juniors",
"market_prob": 34.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.99,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.55,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Cuniburo",
"market_prob": 35.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.7,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.7,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Cuniburo",
"market_prob_pct": 35.42,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Cuenca Juniors"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.55,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Cuniburo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.6,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Cuniburo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 1.22 xG vs Cuniburo 1.38 \u2192 Cuniburo 39.0%",
"Market: Cuniburo ~35.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Deportivo Cuenca Juniors +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cuniburo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.55,
"hero_label": "Cuniburo",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Deportivo Cuenca Juniors has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Deportivo Cuenca Juniors.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Deportivo Cuenca Juniors has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Deportivo Cuenca Juniors."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Deportivo Cuenca Juniors has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (1/1) supports the current market view on Deportivo Cuenca Juniors."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.55,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Cuniburo",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.57,
"edge_pp": -2.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Cuenca Juniors",
"market_prob_pct": 34.05,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.99,
"edge_pp": -0.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.53,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.55,
"edge_pp": 3.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cuniburo",
"market_prob_pct": 35.42,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Deportivo Cuenca Juniors.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cuniburo (35.4%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Cuniburo, Market \u2192 Cuniburo, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 40.0,
"closing_odds": 2.5,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.0,
"entry_odds": 2.5,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/1",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Deportivo Cuenca Juniors",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Cuenca Juniors",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "cuniburo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Cuniburo",
"away_team_id": 21103,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21103.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cuniburo",
"away_team_public_id": "3DLcktEqH0JaTB",
"away_team_slug": "cuniburo",
"country_code": "EC",
"country_display_name": "Ecuador",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ec.svg",
"country_id": 46,
"country_name": "Ecuador",
"fixture_id": 1632426,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ecuador",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Cuenca Juniors",
"home_team_id": 26031,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26031.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Cuenca Juniors",
"home_team_public_id": "2HlzPwOqR9jNdY",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-cuenca-juniors",
"ht.home_team_slug": "deportivo-cuenca-juniors",
"league_country": "Ecuador",
"league_country_display": "Ecuador",
"league_display_name": "Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador",
"league_id": 243,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/243.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador",
"league_public_id": "5vQVlffQy0raFb",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 19:30:00",
"public_id": "5orfeQw8owDAcZ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.426,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0768,
"implied_prob": 0.3542,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3542,
"draw": 0.3053,
"home": 0.3405
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.3693
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4433,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0044,
"ev": -0.1273,
"implied_prob": 0.3053,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3542,
"draw": 0.3053,
"home": 0.3405
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.3009
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4327,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.1434,
"implied_prob": 0.3405,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3542,
"draw": 0.3053,
"home": 0.3405
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.3295
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.0258,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": -0.0494,
"ev": -0.1433,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": -0.0697,
"ev": -0.1812,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.3149
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1058,
"alpha_under": 0.1454,
"best_over_odd": 2.5,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.5,
"edge_over": 0.107,
"edge_under": -0.107,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.205,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0342,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0858,
"implied_over": 0.375,
"implied_over_mf": 0.375,
"implied_under": 0.625,
"implied_under_mf": 0.625,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1058,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0342,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3863
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1454,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6094
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3863,
"p_final_under": 0.6094,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.205,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cuniburo at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cuniburo as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cuniburo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cuniburo).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0768,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3542,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0768,
"implied_prob": 0.3542,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Cuniburo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1058,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0113,
"market_prob": 0.375,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1058,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0342,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3863
},
"p_final": 0.3863,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0342,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1454,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6094
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.107,
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1632426,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.205,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3897,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3149
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cuniburo",
"home": "Deportivo Cuenca Juniors"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.052567,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0768,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3542,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632426,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T19:29:06.698018+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Deportivo Cuenca Juniors & Cuniburo!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Juniors | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 39 |
| 2 | Atlético FC | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 38 |
| 3 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 37 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| 5 | Cuniburo | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 31 |
| 7 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 28 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Cumbayá | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 26 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 12 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Juniors | 22 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 39 |
| 2 | Atlético FC | 22 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 | Cuniburo | 22 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 31 |
| 4 | San Antonio | 22 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 31 |
| 5 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 37 |
| 6 | Cumbayá | 22 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 26 |
| 7 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 34 |
| 8 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 29 |
| 9 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 28 |
| 10 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 27 |
| 11 | El Nacional | 22 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 12 |
| 12 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 15 |
