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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 U20 Pháp U20 Ý ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
U20 Ý win · U20 Pháp 0–3 U20 Ý
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1465e259594fed3aadd213c802bbdee7ab6dafb1861e39fe4133c313d0256c1b",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"away_win_prob": 0.3331,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2963,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.0,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.7,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"home_win_prob": 0.3706,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or U20 \u00dd",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "U20 \u00dd"
},
"away_xg": 1.26,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1042,
"edge_gap": 0.0371,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4747,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 33.3,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 37.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.92
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.92,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "U20 Ph\u00e1p Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.11,
"market_odds": 1.92,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 9.7,
"prob_edge": -15.0,
"value_pct": -28.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 71.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 73.8,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.26,
"home_expected": 1.34,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "U20 Ph\u00e1p or Draw",
"prob": 66.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "U20 Ph\u00e1p or U20 \u00dd",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or U20 \u00dd",
"prob": 62.9
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "U20 Ph\u00e1p or U20 \u00dd",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.3,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "U20 Ph\u00e1p"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 15.2,
"implied_prob": 28.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "U20 \u00dd Win",
"model_prob": 33.3,
"odds": 3.46
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "U20 \u00dd",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 26.34,
"draw": 26.19,
"home": 47.47
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 08:59:19",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 08:30:00",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.47,
"gap_pp": -10.42,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 37.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.19,
"gap_pp": 3.41,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.34,
"gap_pp": 7.01,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 33.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.11,
"gap_pp": -5.91,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.89,
"gap_pp": 5.91,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.92,
"early": 1.92,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.47,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.48,
"early": 3.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.19,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.46,
"early": 3.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.34,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.34,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.73,
"early": 1.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.11,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.04,
"early": 2.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.89,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.89,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.0562,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.45,
"market_prob": 0.1183,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.34,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0133,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.4526,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2232,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5328
},
"p_final": 0.4659,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0619,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.045,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.045,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4659
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1469,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.7,
"text": "-14.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0878,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10229.02,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2184,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0043,
"edge_pp": 0.4,
"market_prob": 0.4355,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2184,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0043,
"ev": -0.0765,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4397
},
"p_final": 0.4397,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0445,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0765,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2403,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0931,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5598
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.1,
"text": "+0.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0571,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.7,
"text": "-5.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.001,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5200.8,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U20 Ph\u00e1p).",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1898,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.0,
"text": "-19.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4747,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0235,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.4,
"text": "-2.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2886,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"sort_key": 1794.125,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.41,
"hero_label": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"market_prob_pct": 47.5,
"market_team": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U20 Ph\u00e1p)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U20 Ph\u00e1p)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1538,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates U20 Ph\u00e1p at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies U20 Ph\u00e1p as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side U20 Ph\u00e1p \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1632089 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U20 Ph\u00e1p).",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U20 Ph\u00e1p).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1898,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4747,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2886,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.41,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.41,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.34,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.34 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U20 Ph\u00e1p).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U20 Ph\u00e1p)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U20 Ph\u00e1p)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1538,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates U20 Ph\u00e1p at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies U20 Ph\u00e1p as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side U20 Ph\u00e1p \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1632089 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U20 Ph\u00e1p).",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U20 Ph\u00e1p).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1898,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4747,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2886,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U20 Ph\u00e1p).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: U20 Ph\u00e1p 1.34 xG vs U20 \u00dd 1.26 \u2192 U20 Ph\u00e1p 37.1%",
"Market: U20 Ph\u00e1p ~47.5% implied",
"Market Steam: U20 Ph\u00e1p +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean U20 Ph\u00e1p with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.41,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"market_prob": 47.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.44,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.97,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "U20 \u00dd",
"market_prob": 26.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.49,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.49,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.61,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.61,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"market_prob_pct": 47.47,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "U20 Ph\u00e1p"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates U20 Ph\u00e1p\u0027s win probability at 47.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.41,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.4,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "U20 Ph\u00e1p \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: U20 Ph\u00e1p 1.34 xG vs U20 \u00dd 1.26 \u2192 U20 Ph\u00e1p 37.1%",
"Market: U20 Ph\u00e1p ~47.5% implied",
"Market Steam: U20 Ph\u00e1p +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean U20 Ph\u00e1p with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.41,
"hero_label": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about U20 Ph\u00e1p than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about U20 Ph\u00e1p than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about U20 Ph\u00e1p than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors U20 Ph\u00e1p more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on U20 Ph\u00e1p (pricing gap 10.4 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.41,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices U20 Ph\u00e1p higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.41,
"edge_pp": -10.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"market_prob_pct": 47.47,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.44,
"edge_pp": 3.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.19,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.97,
"edge_pp": 6.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "U20 \u00dd",
"market_prob_pct": 26.34,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about U20 Ph\u00e1p than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers U20 Ph\u00e1p (47.5%).",
"U20 Ph\u00e1p \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.08,
"closing_odds": 1.92,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.08,
"entry_odds": 1.92,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/5",
"current_odds": 1.7,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.7,
"pick_team": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_team_name": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "italy-u20",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "U20 \u00dd",
"away_team_id": 10289,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10289.webp",
"away_team_name": "U20 \u00dd",
"away_team_public_id": "0HJax4kVPVn05z",
"away_team_slug": "italy-u20",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1632089,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "France",
"home_team_display_name": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"home_team_id": 10287,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10287.webp",
"home_team_name": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"home_team_public_id": "5h1F1rQRrbgbBZ",
"home_team_slug": "france-u20",
"ht.home_team_slug": "france-u20",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea5u U20 Elite",
"league_id": 890,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/890.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea5u U20 Elite",
"league_public_id": "3LL0KHXjrFzQjC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 09:00:00",
"public_id": "1By5xy64pWLpvT",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2685,
"best_odd": 3.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0235,
"implied_prob": 0.2634,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2634,
"draw": 0.2619,
"home": 0.4747
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.2822
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2847,
"best_odd": 3.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.0548,
"implied_prob": 0.2619,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2634,
"draw": 0.2619,
"home": 0.4747
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2716
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5063,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0527,
"ev": -0.1898,
"implied_prob": 0.4747,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2634,
"draw": 0.2619,
"home": 0.4747
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.422
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.46,
"edge": 0.0445,
"ev": 0.1538,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.48,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": 0.03,
"implied_prob": 0.2874,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": -0.1503,
"ev": -0.2886,
"implied_prob": 0.5208,
"model_prob": 0.3705
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2184,
"alpha_yes": 0.2403,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0161,
"edge_yes": -0.0161,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0765,
"ev_yes": -0.0571,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0931,
"implied_no": 0.4389,
"implied_yes": 0.5611,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2184,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0043,
"ev": -0.0765,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4397
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2403,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0931,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5598
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4397,
"p_final_yes": 0.5598,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2232,
"alpha_under": 0.2029,
"best_over_odd": 1.77,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.695,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.05,
"edge_over": -0.0649,
"edge_under": 0.0649,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1469,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0969,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.045,
"implied_over": 0.5469,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5474,
"implied_under": 0.4531,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4526,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2232,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5328
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.045,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4659
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5328,
"p_final_under": 0.4659,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1538,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U20 Ph\u00e1p)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1538,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates U20 Ph\u00e1p at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies U20 Ph\u00e1p as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "U20 Ph\u00e1p",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side U20 Ph\u00e1p \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1632089 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U20 Ph\u00e1p).",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U20 Ph\u00e1p).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1898,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4747,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2886,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0527,
"ev": -0.1898,
"implied_prob": 0.4747,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "U20 Ph\u00e1p"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2184,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0043,
"market_prob": 0.4355,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2184,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0043,
"ev": -0.0765,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4397
},
"p_final": 0.4397,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0765,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2403,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0931,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5598
}
},
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": 0.001,
"implied_prob": 0.4389,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0133,
"market_prob": 0.4526,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2232,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5328
},
"p_final": 0.4659,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.045,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.045,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4659
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0649,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1632089,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3335,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3705
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "U20 \u00dd",
"home": "U20 Ph\u00e1p"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1898,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4747,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2886,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632089,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T08:59:20.894289+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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