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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Cerro Porteño Sportivo Trinidense ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.38
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Sportivo Trinidense win · Sportivo Trinidense 2–1 Cerro Porteño
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "d720661de4b2df287b84cdc82ecde3b28823438640935cb892d4edfe3241820c",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.99,
"away_win_prob": 0.3733,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.64,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.36,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.363,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.68,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 2.76,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.79,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.79,
"home_win_prob": 0.2637,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.264,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.736
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Sportivo Trinidense or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Sportivo Trinidense"
},
"away_xg": 0.99,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0355,
"edge_gap": 0.0108,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4089,
"model_prob": 0.3734,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.3,
"draw": 36.3,
"home": 26.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.33
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.33,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.45,
"market_odds": 2.33,
"model_odds": 2.68,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": -5.6,
"value_pct": -13.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 11,
"away_score_rate": 62.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 11,
"home_score_rate": 54.6,
"no_prob": 64.0,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 64.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 36.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.99,
"home_expected": 0.79,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 16.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 16.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 13.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sportivo Trinidense or Draw",
"prob": 62.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sportivo Trinidense or Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"prob": 63.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"prob": 73.6
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"pick_prob": 73.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.3,
"draw_pct": 36.3,
"home_pct": 26.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 1.78,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 26.4,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 73.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 1.78,
"under_prob": 73.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 22.7,
"implied_prob": 29.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 36.3,
"odds": 3.38
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 40.89,
"draw": 28.18,
"home": 30.93
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 21:59:41",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 21:30:16",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.93,
"gap_pp": -4.53,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 26.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.18,
"gap_pp": 8.07,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 36.26
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.89,
"gap_pp": -3.55,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.34
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.19,
"gap_pp": -16.79,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 26.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.81,
"gap_pp": 16.79,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 73.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.08,
"early": 3.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.93,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.93,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.38,
"early": 3.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.18,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.33,
"early": 2.33,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.89,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.89,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.21,
"early": 2.21,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.19,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.68,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.81,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.81,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.8,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betfair",
"best_odds": 8.5,
"edge": 5.1,
"ev": 43.3,
"label": "0-0",
"probability": 16.9
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 5.1,
"ev": 0.4365,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-0",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.169,
"model_prob_pct": 16.9,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 16.9
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 16.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 16.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 13.3
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.3
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.79,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2916,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0472,
"edge_pp": 4.7,
"market_prob": 0.5742,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.736,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2651,
"best_odd": 2.185,
"edge": -0.0429,
"ev": -0.1634,
"implied_prob": 0.4258,
"model_prob": 0.264,
"p_final": 0.3829
},
"p_final": 0.6214,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1923,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0067,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2916,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0472,
"ev": 0.0067,
"implied_prob": 0.5742,
"model_prob": 0.736,
"p_final": 0.6214
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.406,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -40.6,
"text": "-40.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2365,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.6,
"text": "+23.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2365,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 26.4,
"sort_key": 10362.85,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 73.6,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2786,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0379,
"edge_pp": 3.8,
"market_prob": 0.5041,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.64,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2786,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0379,
"ev": -0.0082,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.64,
"p_final": 0.5419
},
"p_final": 0.5419,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1712,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0082,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2786,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.0379,
"ev": -0.148,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"model_prob": 0.36,
"p_final": 0.4581
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1968,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.7,
"text": "+19.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.3124,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -31.2,
"text": "-31.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1968,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 64.0,
"sort_key": 10177.12,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 36.0
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0826,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.3,
"text": "-8.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4089,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0246,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.5,
"text": "+2.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3734,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.13,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.0%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"sort_key": 5219.68,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 830.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-0",
"top_prob": 16.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.12,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 40.9,
"market_team": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"model_prob_pct": 37.3,
"model_team": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cerro Porte\u00f1o)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cerro Porte\u00f1o)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2365,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2365,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cerro Porte\u00f1o at 37.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cerro Porte\u00f1o as the value side (37.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cerro Porte\u00f1o).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0826,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4089,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3734,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4291845493562232,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.13,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -26.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4444444444444444,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.4,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.12,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.12,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.99,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -27.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.79,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 0.99,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.79 \u00b7 Away xG 0.99 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -27%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cerro Porte\u00f1o).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cerro Porte\u00f1o)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cerro Porte\u00f1o)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2365,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2365,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cerro Porte\u00f1o at 37.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cerro Porte\u00f1o as the value side (37.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cerro Porte\u00f1o).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0826,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4089,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3734,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4291845493562232,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.13,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -26.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sportivo Trinidense 0.79 xG vs Cerro Porte\u00f1o 0.99 \u2192 Cerro Porte\u00f1o 37.3%",
"Market: Cerro Porte\u00f1o ~40.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Sportivo Trinidense +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cerro Porte\u00f1o with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.56,
"fair_prob": 26.37,
"label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"market_prob": 30.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.12,
"fair_prob": 36.3,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.56,
"fair_prob": 37.33,
"label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"market_prob": 40.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.38,
"fair_prob": 26.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.78,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.38,
"fair_prob": 73.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.22,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.56,
"fair_prob": 36.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.56,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.56,
"fair_prob": 64.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.44,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.3,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.18,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Sportivo Trinidense"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 36.3%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 28.2%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.12,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.6,
"model_prob_pct": 37.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sportivo Trinidense 0.79 xG vs Cerro Porte\u00f1o 0.99 \u2192 Cerro Porte\u00f1o 37.3%",
"Market: Cerro Porte\u00f1o ~40.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Sportivo Trinidense +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cerro Porte\u00f1o with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.12,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.12,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.0,
"max_prob_pct": 37.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.1,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.56,
"edge_pp": -4.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"market_prob_pct": 30.93,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.12,
"edge_pp": 8.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.3,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.18,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.56,
"edge_pp": -3.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.33,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"market_prob_pct": 40.89,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cerro Porte\u00f1o (40.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Cerro Porte\u00f1o, Market \u2192 Cerro Porte\u00f1o, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.59,
"closing_odds": 3.38,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.59,
"entry_odds": 3.38,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"steam_score": 11,
"steam_team_name": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "cerro-porteno",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"away_team_id": 1176,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1176.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"away_team_public_id": "5JPLbXunEqU2vm",
"away_team_slug": "cerro-porteno",
"country_code": "PY",
"country_display_name": "Paraguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/py.svg",
"country_id": 125,
"country_name": "Paraguay",
"fixture_id": 1632019,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Paraguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"home_team_id": 1187,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1187.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"home_team_public_id": "4UJaG3DLD7Tgcw",
"home_team_slug": "sportivo-trinidense",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sportivo-trinidense",
"league_country": "Paraguay",
"league_country_display": "Paraguay",
"league_display_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional \u2013 Clausura",
"league_id": 252,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/252.webp",
"league_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional \u2013 Clausura",
"league_public_id": "0YxCMpiFeGF6D6",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 22:00:00",
"public_id": "0eJWj0tCBC4Lhc",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Asuncion",
"venue_name": "Estadio Martin Torres"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4261,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.0826,
"implied_prob": 0.4089,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4089,
"draw": 0.2818,
"home": 0.3093
},
"model_prob": 0.3734,
"p_final": 0.3937
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2637,
"best_odd": 3.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": 0.0246,
"implied_prob": 0.2818,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4089,
"draw": 0.2818,
"home": 0.3093
},
"model_prob": 0.3626,
"p_final": 0.3031
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2796,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0127,
"ev": -0.0863,
"implied_prob": 0.3093,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4089,
"draw": 0.2818,
"home": 0.3093
},
"model_prob": 0.264,
"p_final": 0.2966
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": -0.0558,
"ev": -0.13,
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"model_prob": 0.3734
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.38,
"edge": 0.0667,
"ev": 0.2255,
"implied_prob": 0.2959,
"model_prob": 0.3626
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": -0.0606,
"ev": -0.1868,
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"model_prob": 0.264
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2786,
"alpha_yes": 0.2786,
"best_no_odd": 1.87,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1356,
"edge_yes": -0.1356,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1968,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0082,
"ev_yes": -0.3124,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.148,
"implied_no": 0.5044,
"implied_yes": 0.4956,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2786,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0379,
"ev": -0.0082,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.64,
"p_final": 0.5419
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2786,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.0379,
"ev": -0.148,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"model_prob": 0.36,
"p_final": 0.4581
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5419,
"p_final_yes": 0.4581,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2651,
"alpha_under": 0.2916,
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.185,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.62,
"edge_over": -0.1638,
"edge_under": 0.1638,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.406,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1634,
"ev_under": 0.2365,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0067,
"implied_over": 0.4278,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4258,
"implied_under": 0.5722,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5742,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2651,
"best_odd": 2.185,
"edge": -0.0429,
"ev": -0.1634,
"implied_prob": 0.4258,
"model_prob": 0.264,
"p_final": 0.3829
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2916,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0472,
"ev": 0.0067,
"implied_prob": 0.5742,
"model_prob": 0.736,
"p_final": 0.6214
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3829,
"p_final_under": 0.6214,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.78,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2365,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2365,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2365,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cerro Porte\u00f1o)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2365,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2365,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cerro Porte\u00f1o at 37.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cerro Porte\u00f1o as the value side (37.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cerro Porte\u00f1o).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0826,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4089,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3734,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4291845493562232,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.13,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -26.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.36,
"draw_prob": 0.3626,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3734,
"over_prob": 0.264,
"total_xg": 1.78,
"under_prob": 0.736,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.0826,
"implied_prob": 0.4089,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3734,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2786,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0379,
"market_prob": 0.5041,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.64,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2786,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0379,
"ev": -0.0082,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.64,
"p_final": 0.5419
},
"p_final": 0.5419,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0082,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2786,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.0379,
"ev": -0.148,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"model_prob": 0.36,
"p_final": 0.4581
}
},
"edge": 0.1356,
"ev": 0.1968,
"implied_prob": 0.5044,
"model_prob": 0.64,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2916,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0472,
"market_prob": 0.5742,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.736,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2651,
"best_odd": 2.185,
"edge": -0.0429,
"ev": -0.1634,
"implied_prob": 0.4258,
"model_prob": 0.264,
"p_final": 0.3829
},
"p_final": 0.6214,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0067,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2916,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0472,
"ev": 0.0067,
"implied_prob": 0.5742,
"model_prob": 0.736,
"p_final": 0.6214
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1638,
"ev": 0.2365,
"implied_prob": 0.5722,
"model_prob": 0.736,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1632019,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2365,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3734,
"draw": 0.3626,
"home": 0.264
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1968,
"implied_prob": 0.5044,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.64,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1968,
"implied_prob": 0.5044,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.64,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"home": "Sportivo Trinidense"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.226283,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2365,
"implied_prob": 0.5722,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.736,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0826,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4089,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3734,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4291845493562232,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.13,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632019,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T21:59:42.873892+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Sportivo Trinidense & Cerro Porteño!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
División Profesional – Clausura — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | Club 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 5 | Club Guarani | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteño | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueño | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio Ñu | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 11 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 11 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteño | 11 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | Club 2 de Mayo | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Club Guarani | 12 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rubio Ñu | 12 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueño | 12 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 11 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 1 |
