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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Sportivo Trinidense Club Guarani ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.22
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Club Guarani win · Sportivo Trinidense 0–1 Club Guarani
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.93,
"away_win_prob": 0.2767,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.569,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.431,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3335,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.61,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.0,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.57,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.15,
"home_win_prob": 0.3898,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.345,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.655
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Sportivo Trinidense or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Sportivo Trinidense"
},
"away_xg": 0.93,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0398,
"edge_gap": 0.0558,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4291,
"model_prob": 0.3893,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 27.7,
"draw": 33.4,
"home": 38.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.22
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.22,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Sportivo Trinidense Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.33,
"market_odds": 2.22,
"model_odds": 2.57,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": -6.1,
"value_pct": -13.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 60.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 68.3,
"no_prob": 56.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 56.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 43.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.93,
"home_expected": 1.15,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sportivo Trinidense or Draw",
"prob": 72.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sportivo Trinidense or Club Guarani",
"prob": 66.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Club Guarani",
"prob": 61.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Sportivo Trinidense or Draw",
"pick_prob": 72.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 27.7,
"draw_pct": 33.4,
"home_pct": 39.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Sportivo Trinidense"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.08,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 34.5,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 65.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.08,
"under_prob": 65.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 6.2,
"implied_prob": 31.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 33.4,
"odds": 3.18
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Club Guarani",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 27.14,
"draw": 29.95,
"home": 42.91
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 18:59:52",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 18:30:50",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.91,
"gap_pp": -3.98,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.93
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.95,
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 33.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.14,
"gap_pp": 0.58,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 27.72
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.93,
"gap_pp": -9.43,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 34.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.07,
"gap_pp": 9.43,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 65.5
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.22,
"early": 2.22,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.91,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.18,
"early": 3.18,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.95,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.51,
"early": 3.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.14,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.17,
"early": 2.17,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.93,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.93,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.7,
"early": 1.7,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.07,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.07,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.1,
"ev": 0.008,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-0",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.144,
"model_prob_pct": 14.4,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.4
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.4
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.6
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.3
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.15,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3291,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0319,
"edge_pp": 3.2,
"market_prob": 0.5582,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.655,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2992,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1289,
"implied_prob": 0.4418,
"model_prob": 0.345,
"p_final": 0.4128
},
"p_final": 0.5901,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0938,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0146,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3291,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0319,
"ev": -0.0146,
"implied_prob": 0.5582,
"model_prob": 0.655,
"p_final": 0.5901
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2514,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.1,
"text": "-25.1%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1135,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.3,
"text": "+11.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1135,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 34.5,
"sort_key": 10252.15,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 65.5,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3131,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"edge": 0.022,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.4986,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.569,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3131,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.022,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.569,
"p_final": 0.5207
},
"p_final": 0.5207,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.047,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.042,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3131,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.1228,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.431,
"p_final": 0.4793
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0868,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.7,
"text": "+8.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.194,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.4,
"text": "-19.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0868,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 56.9,
"sort_key": 10078.12,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 43.1
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0848,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.5,
"text": "-8.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0167,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.7,
"text": "-1.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3893,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"sort_key": 1795.825,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 823.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 14.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"alert_team": "Club Guarani",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.93,
"hero_label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"market_prob_pct": 42.9,
"market_team": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1135,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1135,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sportivo Trinidense at 38.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sportivo Trinidense as the value side (38.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0848,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3893,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -14.8,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.93,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.93,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.93,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -15.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.15,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.15,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.15 \u00b7 Away xG 0.93 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -15%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"steam_team": "Club Guarani",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1135,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1135,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sportivo Trinidense at 38.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sportivo Trinidense as the value side (38.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0848,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3893,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -14.8,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sportivo Trinidense 1.15 xG vs Club Guarani 0.93 \u2192 Sportivo Trinidense 39.0%",
"Market: Sportivo Trinidense ~42.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Club Guarani odds \u2191 +3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sportivo Trinidense with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.93,
"fair_prob": 38.98,
"label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"market_prob": 42.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.4,
"fair_prob": 33.35,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.53,
"fair_prob": 27.67,
"label": "Club Guarani",
"market_prob": 27.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.66,
"fair_prob": 34.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.66,
"fair_prob": 65.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.13,
"fair_prob": 43.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.13,
"fair_prob": 56.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.98,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"market_prob_pct": 42.91,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Club Guarani"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.93,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.9,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Sportivo Trinidense \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sportivo Trinidense 1.15 xG vs Club Guarani 0.93 \u2192 Sportivo Trinidense 39.0%",
"Market: Sportivo Trinidense ~42.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Club Guarani odds \u2191 +3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sportivo Trinidense with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.93,
"hero_label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Club Guarani odds lengthened \u2191 +3.2%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Club Guarani has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Club Guarani \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Club Guarani has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Club Guarani \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Club Guarani has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Club Guarani."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.93,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.93,
"edge_pp": -3.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.98,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"market_prob_pct": 42.91,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.4,
"edge_pp": 3.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.35,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.95,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.53,
"edge_pp": 0.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.67,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Club Guarani",
"market_prob_pct": 27.14,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Club Guarani \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sportivo Trinidense (42.9%).",
"Club Guarani odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.2%, 7/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Sportivo Trinidense \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.05,
"closing_odds": 2.22,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.05,
"entry_odds": 2.22,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"SBO led repricing on Club Guarani (3.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.51",
"3.30",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.51 \u2192 2.67 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 45m",
"pick_team": "Club Guarani",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.51"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.67"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.51,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,13.6",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.51"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/9 sportsbooks on Club Guarani",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Club Guarani",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Club Guarani",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Club Guarani",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "Club Guarani",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "club-guarani",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Club Guarani",
"away_team_id": 1174,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1174.webp",
"away_team_name": "Club Guarani",
"away_team_public_id": "0buPvmYGNZYZO5",
"away_team_slug": "club-guarani",
"country_code": "PY",
"country_display_name": "Paraguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/py.svg",
"country_id": 125,
"country_name": "Paraguay",
"fixture_id": 1632013,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Paraguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"home_team_id": 1187,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1187.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"home_team_public_id": "4UJaG3DLD7Tgcw",
"home_team_slug": "sportivo-trinidense",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sportivo-trinidense",
"league_country": "Paraguay",
"league_country_display": "Paraguay",
"league_display_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional \u2013 Clausura",
"league_id": 252,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/252.webp",
"league_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional \u2013 Clausura",
"league_public_id": "0YxCMpiFeGF6D6",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 19:00:00",
"public_id": "42EhC1LJEDeT6s",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Asuncion",
"venue_name": "Estadio Martin Torres"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2974,
"best_odd": 3.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0017,
"ev": -0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.2714,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2714,
"draw": 0.2995,
"home": 0.4291
},
"model_prob": 0.2772,
"p_final": 0.2731
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2847,
"best_odd": 3.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.0167,
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
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"away": 0.2714,
"draw": 0.2995,
"home": 0.4291
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3092
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4232,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.0848,
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2714,
"draw": 0.2995,
"home": 0.4291
},
"model_prob": 0.3893,
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}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.51,
"edge": -0.0077,
"ev": -0.0272,
"implied_prob": 0.2849,
"model_prob": 0.2772
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.18,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": 0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.3145,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": -0.0611,
"ev": -0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.3893
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3131,
"alpha_yes": 0.3131,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0713,
"edge_yes": -0.0713,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0868,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.042,
"ev_yes": -0.194,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1228,
"implied_no": 0.4977,
"implied_yes": 0.5023,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3131,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.022,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.569,
"p_final": 0.5207
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3131,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.1228,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.431,
"p_final": 0.4793
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5207,
"p_final_yes": 0.4793,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2992,
"alpha_under": 0.3291,
"best_over_odd": 2.17,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.11,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": -0.0966,
"edge_under": 0.0966,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2514,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1289,
"ev_under": 0.1135,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0146,
"implied_over": 0.4416,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4418,
"implied_under": 0.5584,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5582,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2992,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1289,
"implied_prob": 0.4418,
"model_prob": 0.345,
"p_final": 0.4128
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3291,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0319,
"ev": -0.0146,
"implied_prob": 0.5582,
"model_prob": 0.655,
"p_final": 0.5901
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4128,
"p_final_under": 0.5901,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.08,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1135,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1135,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1135,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1135,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1135,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sportivo Trinidense at 38.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sportivo Trinidense as the value side (38.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0848,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3893,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -14.8,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.431,
"draw_prob": 0.3335,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3893,
"over_prob": 0.345,
"total_xg": 2.08,
"under_prob": 0.655,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.0848,
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3893,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sportivo Trinidense"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3131,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"edge": 0.022,
"market_prob": 0.4986,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.569,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3131,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.022,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.569,
"p_final": 0.5207
},
"p_final": 0.5207,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.042,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3131,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.1228,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.431,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0713,
"ev": 0.0868,
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"model_prob": 0.569,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0319,
"market_prob": 0.5582,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.655,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
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"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1289,
"implied_prob": 0.4418,
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"p_final": 0.4128
},
"p_final": 0.5901,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0146,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3291,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0319,
"ev": -0.0146,
"implied_prob": 0.5582,
"model_prob": 0.655,
"p_final": 0.5901
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0966,
"ev": 0.1135,
"implied_prob": 0.5584,
"model_prob": 0.655,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1632013,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1135,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2772,
"draw": 0.3335,
"home": 0.3893
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Club Guarani",
"home": "Sportivo Trinidense"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.074343,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1135,
"implied_prob": 0.5584,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.655,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0848,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3893,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632013,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T18:59:53.956589+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Sportivo Trinidense & Club Guarani!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
División Profesional – Clausura — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | Club 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 5 | Club Guarani | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteño | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueño | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio Ñu | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 11 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 11 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteño | 11 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | Club 2 de Mayo | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Club Guarani | 12 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rubio Ñu | 12 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueño | 12 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 11 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 1 |
