Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Petrocub Petrocub ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.72
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Petrocub win · Politehnica UTM 0–1 Petrocub
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "6dfe0ed7d96a7b8e8ecc3e945d55189da57cf88dbdd99c730dfc5a1e92921988",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.54,
"away_win_prob": 0.4681,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.471,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.529,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2865,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.14,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.49,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 4.07,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.06,
"home_win_prob": 0.2454,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Petrocub",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Petrocub"
},
"away_xg": 1.54,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Petrocub",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0481,
"edge_gap": 0.1808,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5157,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 46.8,
"draw": 28.7,
"home": 24.6
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.72
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.72,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Petrocub Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.94,
"market_odds": 1.72,
"model_odds": 2.14,
"overround": 12.7,
"prob_edge": -11.4,
"value_pct": -19.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 12,
"away_score_rate": 78.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 12,
"home_score_rate": 65.4,
"no_prob": 47.1,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 52.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 52.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.54,
"home_expected": 1.06,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Politehnica UTM or Draw",
"prob": 53.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Politehnica UTM or Petrocub",
"prob": 71.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Petrocub",
"prob": 75.4
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Petrocub",
"pick_prob": 75.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 46.8,
"draw_pct": 28.6,
"home_pct": 24.5,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Petrocub"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -19.6,
"implied_prob": 58.1,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Petrocub Win",
"model_prob": 46.7,
"odds": 1.72
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Petrocub",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 51.57,
"draw": 25.63,
"home": 22.8
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 13:04:20",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 12:35:07",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Politehnica UTM",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.8,
"gap_pp": 1.78,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 24.58
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.63,
"gap_pp": 3.03,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.57,
"gap_pp": -4.81,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 46.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.51,
"gap_pp": -5.31,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.49,
"gap_pp": 5.31,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.89,
"early": 3.89,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.8,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.46,
"early": 3.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.63,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.63,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.72,
"early": 1.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.57,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.72,
"early": 1.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.51,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.98,
"early": 1.98,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.49,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.49,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.4,
"ev": -0.032,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.121,
"model_prob_pct": 12.1,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.06,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.985,
"edge": 0.0123,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.4577,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2251,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.1143,
"implied_prob": 0.5423,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5288
},
"p_final": 0.47,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0282,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0671,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"best_odd": 1.985,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0671,
"implied_prob": 0.4577,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.47
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.171,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.0,
"text": "+14.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1396,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10275.64,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1525,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0032,
"edge_pp": 0.3,
"market_prob": 0.4499,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.471,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1525,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0032,
"ev": -0.0802,
"implied_prob": 0.4499,
"model_prob": 0.471,
"p_final": 0.4531
},
"p_final": 0.4531,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0439,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0802,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1678,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0035,
"ev": -0.0927,
"implied_prob": 0.5501,
"model_prob": 0.529,
"p_final": 0.5466
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0344,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.4,
"text": "-3.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1219,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.2,
"text": "-12.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0344,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 47.1,
"sort_key": 1791.4,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 52.9
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1592,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.9,
"text": "-15.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5157,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.083,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.3,
"text": "-8.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1959,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Petrocub",
"sort_key": 1779.25,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.76,
"hero_label": "Petrocub",
"market_prob_pct": 51.6,
"market_team": "Petrocub",
"model_prob_pct": 46.8,
"model_team": "Petrocub",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrocub)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrocub)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Petrocub at 46.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Petrocub as the value side (46.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Petrocub",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrocub).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1592,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5157,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5813953488372093,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1959,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.3,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.76,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.76,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.54,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.06,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.54,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.06 \u00b7 Away xG 1.54 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +14%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Politehnica UTM",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrocub).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrocub)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrocub)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Petrocub at 46.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Petrocub as the value side (46.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Petrocub",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrocub).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1592,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5157,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5813953488372093,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1959,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Politehnica UTM 1.06 xG vs Petrocub 1.54 \u2192 Petrocub 46.8%",
"Market: Petrocub ~51.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Politehnica UTM +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Petrocub projects stronger on expected goals (+0.48 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.74,
"fair_prob": 24.54,
"label": "Politehnica UTM",
"market_prob": 22.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.02,
"fair_prob": 28.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.76,
"fair_prob": 46.81,
"label": "Petrocub",
"market_prob": 51.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.43,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.43,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.11,
"fair_prob": 52.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.01,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.11,
"fair_prob": 47.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.99,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.81,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Petrocub",
"market_prob_pct": 51.57,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Politehnica UTM"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.76,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Petrocub",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.8,
"model_prob_pct": 46.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Petrocub \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Politehnica UTM 1.06 xG vs Petrocub 1.54 \u2192 Petrocub 46.8%",
"Market: Petrocub ~51.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Politehnica UTM +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Petrocub projects stronger on expected goals (+0.48 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.76,
"hero_label": "Petrocub",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.76,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 18.2 pp (at 46.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 18.2,
"max_prob_pct": 46.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Petrocub",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.8,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.8,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.74,
"edge_pp": 1.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Politehnica UTM",
"market_prob_pct": 22.8,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.02,
"edge_pp": 3.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.63,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.76,
"edge_pp": -4.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.81,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Petrocub",
"market_prob_pct": 51.57,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Petrocub (51.6%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Petrocub, Market \u2192 Petrocub, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 58.14,
"closing_odds": 1.72,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 58.14,
"entry_odds": 1.72,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/6",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "Politehnica UTM",
"steam_score": 4,
"steam_team_name": "Politehnica UTM",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "petrocub",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Petrocub",
"away_team_id": 2271,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2271.webp",
"away_team_name": "Petrocub",
"away_team_public_id": "4L37BLPLQi150n",
"away_team_slug": "petrocub",
"country_code": "MD",
"country_display_name": "Moldova",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/md.svg",
"country_id": 108,
"country_name": "Moldova",
"fixture_id": 1630239,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Moldova",
"home_team_display_name": "Politehnica UTM",
"home_team_id": 26115,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26115.webp",
"home_team_name": "Politehnica UTM",
"home_team_public_id": "2ShuHwKPyoYuy8",
"home_team_slug": "politehnica-utm",
"ht.home_team_slug": "politehnica-utm",
"league_country": "Moldova",
"league_country_display": "Moldova",
"league_display_name": "Super Liga Moldova",
"league_id": 394,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/394.webp",
"league_name": "Super Liga Moldova",
"league_public_id": "4A807HHZdySVd0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:00:00",
"public_id": "0ghEBclsFWoogS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Complexul Sportiv al Tineretului UTM"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5567,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0268,
"ev": -0.1592,
"implied_prob": 0.5157,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5157,
"draw": 0.2563,
"home": 0.228
},
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"p_final": 0.4889
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2864,
"best_odd": 3.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.083,
"implied_prob": 0.2563,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5157,
"draw": 0.2563,
"home": 0.228
},
"model_prob": 0.2867,
"p_final": 0.265
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.292,
"best_odd": 3.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0052,
"ev": -0.0928,
"implied_prob": 0.228,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5157,
"draw": 0.2563,
"home": 0.228
},
"model_prob": 0.2458,
"p_final": 0.2332
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.1139,
"ev": -0.1959,
"implied_prob": 0.5814,
"model_prob": 0.4675
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.46,
"edge": -0.0023,
"ev": -0.0081,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"model_prob": 0.2867
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.89,
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.0438,
"implied_prob": 0.2571,
"model_prob": 0.2458
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1525,
"alpha_yes": 0.1678,
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.66,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0211,
"edge_yes": -0.0211,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0344,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0802,
"ev_yes": -0.1219,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0927,
"implied_no": 0.4499,
"implied_yes": 0.5501,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1525,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0032,
"ev": -0.0802,
"implied_prob": 0.4499,
"model_prob": 0.471,
"p_final": 0.4531
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1678,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0035,
"ev": -0.0927,
"implied_prob": 0.5501,
"model_prob": 0.529,
"p_final": 0.5466
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4531,
"p_final_yes": 0.5466,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2251,
"alpha_under": 0.2046,
"best_over_odd": 1.72,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.675,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.985,
"edge_over": -0.0643,
"edge_under": 0.0643,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.171,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1143,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0671,
"implied_over": 0.5463,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5423,
"implied_under": 0.4537,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4577,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2251,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.1143,
"implied_prob": 0.5423,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5288
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"best_odd": 1.985,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0671,
"implied_prob": 0.4577,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.47
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5288,
"p_final_under": 0.47,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrocub)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Petrocub at 46.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Petrocub as the value side (46.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Petrocub",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrocub).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1592,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5157,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5813953488372093,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1959,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.529,
"draw_prob": 0.2867,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4675,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.48
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0268,
"ev": -0.1592,
"implied_prob": 0.5157,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Petrocub"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1525,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0032,
"market_prob": 0.4499,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.471,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1525,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0032,
"ev": -0.0802,
"implied_prob": 0.4499,
"model_prob": 0.471,
"p_final": 0.4531
},
"p_final": 0.4531,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0802,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1678,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0035,
"ev": -0.0927,
"implied_prob": 0.5501,
"model_prob": 0.529,
"p_final": 0.5466
}
},
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0344,
"implied_prob": 0.4499,
"model_prob": 0.471,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.985,
"edge": 0.0123,
"market_prob": 0.4577,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2251,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.1143,
"implied_prob": 0.5423,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5288
},
"p_final": 0.47,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0671,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"best_odd": 1.985,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0671,
"implied_prob": 0.4577,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.47
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0643,
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4537,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1630239,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4675,
"draw": 0.2867,
"home": 0.2458
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Petrocub",
"home": "Politehnica UTM"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050619,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4537,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1592,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5157,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5813953488372093,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1959,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1630239,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:04:22.187953+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Politehnica UTM & Petrocub!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Super Liga Moldova — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 28 |
| 2 | Zimbru | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 26 |
| 3 | Petrocub | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 24 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Milsami Orhei | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Politehnica UTM | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Sireți | 13 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 13 | 32 | 10 | +22 | 28 |
| 2 | Zimbru | 13 | 27 | 12 | +15 | 26 |
| 3 | Petrocub | 13 | 24 | 13 | +11 | 24 |
| 4 | Politehnica UTM | 13 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 15 |
| 5 | Dacia-Buiucani | 13 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 20 |
| 6 | Milsami Orhei | 13 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
| 7 | CSF Bălți | 13 | 9 | 42 | -33 | 5 |
| 8 | Sireți | 13 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 7 |
