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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Trabzonspor U19 Trabzonspor U19 ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.8
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Trabzonspor U19 win · Trabzonspor U19 3–1 Galatasaray U19
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Trabzonspor U19 or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Trabzonspor U19"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Trabzonspor U19",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1367,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4977,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 1.8
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.8,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Trabzonspor U19 Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.01,
"market_odds": 1.8,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 11.6,
"prob_edge": -19.5,
"value_pct": -35.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Trabzonspor U19 or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Trabzonspor U19 or Galatasaray U19",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Galatasaray U19",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Trabzonspor U19 or Galatasaray U19",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Trabzonspor U19"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 4.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 16.3,
"implied_prob": 29.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Galatasaray U19 Win",
"model_prob": 34.2,
"odds": 3.4
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Galatasaray U19",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 26.35,
"draw": 23.89,
"home": 49.77
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 13:04:15",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 12:35:00",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Trabzonspor U19",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.77,
"gap_pp": -13.67,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.89,
"gap_pp": 5.78,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.35,
"gap_pp": 7.89,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.97,
"gap_pp": -10.77,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.03,
"gap_pp": 10.77,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.8,
"early": 1.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.77,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.75,
"early": 3.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.89,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.89,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.4,
"early": 3.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.35,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.6,
"early": 1.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.97,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.97,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.3,
"early": 2.3,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.03,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.03,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1056,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0114,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4103,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.0814,
"implied_prob": 0.5897,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5741
},
"p_final": 0.4216,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1914,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0302,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1056,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.4103,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4216
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.9,
"text": "-22.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.1,
"text": "+19.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1914,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10322.26,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trabzonspor U19).",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2216,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.2,
"text": "-22.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0332,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.3,
"text": "-3.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3504,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Trabzonspor U19",
"sort_key": 1791.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.66,
"hero_label": "Trabzonspor U19",
"market_prob_pct": 49.8,
"market_team": "Trabzonspor U19",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Trabzonspor U19",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trabzonspor U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trabzonspor U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Trabzonspor U19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Trabzonspor U19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Trabzonspor U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trabzonspor U19).",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trabzonspor U19).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2216,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3504,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/1",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.66,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.66,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Trabzonspor U19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trabzonspor U19).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trabzonspor U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trabzonspor U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Trabzonspor U19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Trabzonspor U19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Trabzonspor U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trabzonspor U19).",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trabzonspor U19).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2216,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3504,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trabzonspor U19).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Trabzonspor U19 1.32 xG vs Galatasaray U19 1.28 \u2192 Trabzonspor U19 36.1%",
"Market: Trabzonspor U19 ~49.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Trabzonspor U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Trabzonspor U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.66,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Trabzonspor U19",
"market_prob": 49.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.76,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.89,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Galatasaray U19",
"market_prob": 26.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.77,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.77,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Trabzonspor U19",
"market_prob_pct": 49.77,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Trabzonspor U19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Trabzonspor U19\u0027s win probability at 49.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 13.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.66,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Trabzonspor U19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Trabzonspor U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Trabzonspor U19 1.32 xG vs Galatasaray U19 1.28 \u2192 Trabzonspor U19 36.1%",
"Market: Trabzonspor U19 ~49.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Trabzonspor U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Trabzonspor U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.66,
"hero_label": "Trabzonspor U19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Trabzonspor U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Trabzonspor U19.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Trabzonspor U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Trabzonspor U19."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Trabzonspor U19 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Trabzonspor U19 (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (1/1) supports the current market view on Trabzonspor U19."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.66,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Trabzonspor U19",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Trabzonspor U19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.66,
"edge_pp": -13.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Trabzonspor U19",
"market_prob_pct": 49.77,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.76,
"edge_pp": 5.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.89,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.89,
"edge_pp": 7.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Galatasaray U19",
"market_prob_pct": 26.35,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Trabzonspor U19.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Trabzonspor U19 (49.8%).",
"Trabzonspor U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.56,
"closing_odds": 1.8,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.56,
"entry_odds": 1.8,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/1",
"current_odds": 1.8,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Trabzonspor U19",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Trabzonspor U19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "galatasaray-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Galatasaray U19",
"away_team_id": 7900,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7900.webp",
"away_team_name": "Galatasaray U19",
"away_team_public_id": "3HBE3JiG1c9L8P",
"away_team_slug": "galatasaray-u19",
"country_code": "TR",
"country_display_name": "Turkey",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tr.svg",
"country_id": 157,
"country_name": "Turkey",
"fixture_id": 1629436,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "T\u00fcrkiye",
"home_team_display_name": "Trabzonspor U19",
"home_team_id": 17701,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/17701.webp",
"home_team_name": "Trabzonspor U19",
"home_team_public_id": "5kHcNcvMxtua2e",
"home_team_slug": "trabzonspor-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "trabzonspor-u19",
"league_country": "Turkey",
"league_country_display": "Turkey",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i U19 Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3",
"league_id": 1240,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1240.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i U19 Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3",
"league_public_id": "2WlTZHbigLRRnD",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:00:00",
"public_id": "16BgZ1myspfvwj",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2645,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": -0.0332,
"implied_prob": 0.2635,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2635,
"draw": 0.2389,
"home": 0.4977
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2843
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.274,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0448,
"implied_prob": 0.2389,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2635,
"draw": 0.2389,
"home": 0.4977
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2547
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4769,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0652,
"ev": -0.2216,
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2635,
"draw": 0.2389,
"home": 0.4977
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4324
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0483,
"ev": 0.1641,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.2667,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.1946,
"ev": -0.3503,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1453,
"alpha_under": 0.1056,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.3,
"edge_over": -0.1077,
"edge_under": 0.1077,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0814,
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0302,
"implied_over": 0.5897,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5897,
"implied_under": 0.4103,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4103,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.0814,
"implied_prob": 0.5897,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5741
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1056,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.4103,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4216
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5741,
"p_final_under": 0.4216,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trabzonspor U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Trabzonspor U19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Trabzonspor U19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Trabzonspor U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trabzonspor U19).",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trabzonspor U19).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2216,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3504,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0652,
"ev": -0.2216,
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Trabzonspor U19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1056,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0114,
"market_prob": 0.4103,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.0814,
"implied_prob": 0.5897,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5741
},
"p_final": 0.4216,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0302,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1056,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.4103,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4216
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1077,
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4103,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1629436,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1914,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Galatasaray U19",
"home": "Trabzonspor U19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.052745,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4103,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2216,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3504,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1629436,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:04:16.700393+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Trabzonspor U19 & Galatasaray U19!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải U19 Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beşiktaş U19 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Trabzonspor U19 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 3 | Galatasaray U18 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Galatasaray U19 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Samsunspor U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Kocaelispor U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Konyaspor U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | İstanbul Başakşehir U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Gaziantep U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Fenerbahce U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Genclerbirligi U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Goztepe U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Eyupspor U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Amedspor U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Alanyaspor U19 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Rizespor U19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 16 | Kasimpasa U19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 | Corum U19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Erzurumspor U19 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray U19 | 6 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 12 |
| 2 | Galatasaray U18 | 5 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 12 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor U19 | 6 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 16 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş U19 | 6 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Fenerbahce U19 | 6 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Samsunspor U19 | 6 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 |
| 7 | Genclerbirligi U19 | 6 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 9 |
| 8 | Kocaelispor U19 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Konyaspor U19 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | İstanbul Başakşehir U19 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Eyupspor U19 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Goztepe U19 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Gaziantep U19 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor U19 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 1 |
| 15 | Corum U19 | 6 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 3 |
| 16 | Alanyaspor U19 | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 17 | Rizespor U19 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5 |
| 18 | Kasimpasa U19 | 6 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |
| 19 | Amedspor U19 | 6 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 7 |
