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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Erzurumspor U19 Samsunspor U19 ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.08
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Samsunspor U19 win · Erzurumspor U19 1–4 Samsunspor U19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "78cc005b459eb66201df25176d2fcb8b61e707b0c20b02c72f8cbbdac4415609",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Samsunspor U19",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Samsunspor U19"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Erzurumspor U19",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0736,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2873,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.15
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.15,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Erzurumspor U19 Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.48,
"market_odds": 3.15,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 10.5,
"prob_edge": 4.4,
"value_pct": 13.7,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Erzurumspor U19 or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Erzurumspor U19 or Samsunspor U19",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Samsunspor U19",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Erzurumspor U19 or Samsunspor U19",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Erzurumspor U19"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 13.7,
"implied_prob": 31.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Erzurumspor U19 Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 3.15
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Samsunspor U19",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 43.51,
"draw": 27.76,
"home": 28.73
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 11:02:12",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 10:32:58",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Erzurumspor U19",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.73,
"gap_pp": 7.36,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.76,
"gap_pp": 1.91,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.51,
"gap_pp": -9.27,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.21,
"gap_pp": -5.01,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.79,
"gap_pp": 5.01,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.15,
"early": 3.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.73,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.73,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.26,
"early": 3.26,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.76,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.08,
"early": 2.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.51,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.75,
"early": 1.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.21,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.21,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.79,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2075,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0108,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4661,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2282,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.1021,
"implied_prob": 0.5339,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.522
},
"p_final": 0.4769,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0205,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0605,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2075,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0605,
"implied_prob": 0.4661,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4769
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.7,
"text": "-15.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0774,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.7,
"text": "+7.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0774,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10219.66,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0069,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4229,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0674,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4298
},
"p_final": 0.4298,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0127,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0674,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2356,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.0944,
"implied_prob": 0.5771,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5696
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.1,
"text": "+0.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.128,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.8,
"text": "-12.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.001,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5200.8,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19.",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0331,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.3,
"text": "-3.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2873,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0331,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.3,
"text": "-3.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1368,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Erzurumspor U19",
"sort_key": 1791.725,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.27,
"hero_label": "Samsunspor U19",
"market_prob_pct": 28.7,
"market_team": "Samsunspor U19",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Erzurumspor U19",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1369,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Erzurumspor U19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Erzurumspor U19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Erzurumspor U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Erzurumspor U19 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.19 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1629431 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.19 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0331,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2873,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1368,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2857142857142857,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.9,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.27,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.27,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Erzurumspor U19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1369,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Erzurumspor U19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Erzurumspor U19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Erzurumspor U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Erzurumspor U19 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.19 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1629431 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.19 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0331,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2873,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1368,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Erzurumspor U19 1.32 xG vs Samsunspor U19 1.28 \u2192 Erzurumspor U19 36.1%",
"Market: Samsunspor U19 ~28.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Erzurumspor U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Erzurumspor U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.38,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Erzurumspor U19",
"market_prob": 28.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.89,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.27,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Samsunspor U19",
"market_prob": 43.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.4,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.4,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.24,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.24,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Samsunspor U19",
"market_prob_pct": 43.51,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Erzurumspor U19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Samsunspor U19\u0027s win probability at 43.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.27,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Erzurumspor U19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Erzurumspor U19 1.32 xG vs Samsunspor U19 1.28 \u2192 Erzurumspor U19 36.1%",
"Market: Samsunspor U19 ~28.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Erzurumspor U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Erzurumspor U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.27,
"hero_label": "Samsunspor U19",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Samsunspor U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Samsunspor U19 relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Samsunspor U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Samsunspor U19 above the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.27,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Samsunspor U19",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Samsunspor U19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.38,
"edge_pp": 7.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Erzurumspor U19",
"market_prob_pct": 28.73,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.89,
"edge_pp": 1.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.76,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.27,
"edge_pp": -9.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Samsunspor U19",
"market_prob_pct": 43.51,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Samsunspor U19 relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Samsunspor U19 (28.7%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Erzurumspor U19, Market \u2192 Samsunspor U19, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.08,
"closing_odds": 2.08,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.08,
"entry_odds": 2.08,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Erzurumspor U19",
"steam_score": 3,
"steam_team_name": "Erzurumspor U19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": null,
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Samsunspor U19",
"away_team_id": 28253,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Samsunspor U19",
"away_team_public_id": "3vsDeZjHmP3WZo",
"away_team_slug": null,
"country_code": "TR",
"country_display_name": "Turkey",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tr.svg",
"country_id": 157,
"country_name": "Turkey",
"fixture_id": 1629431,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "Erzurumspor U19",
"home_team_id": 28243,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "Erzurumspor U19",
"home_team_public_id": "2SXTG0ryk1nFMg",
"home_team_slug": null,
"ht.home_team_slug": null,
"league_country": "Turkey",
"league_country_display": "Turkey",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i U19 Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3",
"league_id": 1240,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1240.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i U19 Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3",
"league_public_id": "2WlTZHbigLRRnD",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 11:00:00",
"public_id": "1SMnxoHKCK1wix",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3874,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1697,
"implied_prob": 0.4351,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4351,
"draw": 0.2776,
"home": 0.2873
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3992
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2914,
"best_odd": 3.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0769,
"implied_prob": 0.2776,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4351,
"draw": 0.2776,
"home": 0.2873
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2832
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2669,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0331,
"implied_prob": 0.2873,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4351,
"draw": 0.2776,
"home": 0.2873
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.307
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.1384,
"ev": -0.2878,
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.26,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.3067,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.15,
"edge": 0.0435,
"ev": 0.1369,
"implied_prob": 0.3175,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2142,
"alpha_yes": 0.2356,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0324,
"edge_yes": -0.0324,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0674,
"ev_yes": -0.128,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0944,
"implied_no": 0.4226,
"implied_yes": 0.5774,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0674,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4298
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2356,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.0944,
"implied_prob": 0.5771,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5696
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4298,
"p_final_yes": 0.5696,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2282,
"alpha_under": 0.2075,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.08,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.97,
"edge_over": -0.054,
"edge_under": 0.054,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1021,
"ev_under": 0.0774,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0605,
"implied_over": 0.536,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5339,
"implied_under": 0.464,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4661,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2282,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.1021,
"implied_prob": 0.5339,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.522
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2075,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0605,
"implied_prob": 0.4661,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4769
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.522,
"p_final_under": 0.4769,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1369,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0774,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1369,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Erzurumspor U19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Erzurumspor U19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Erzurumspor U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Erzurumspor U19 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.19 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1629431 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.19 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Erzurumspor U19, but the model still strongly favours Erzurumspor U19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0331,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2873,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1368,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0331,
"implied_prob": 0.2873,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Erzurumspor U19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0069,
"market_prob": 0.4229,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0674,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4298
},
"p_final": 0.4298,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0674,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2356,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.0944,
"implied_prob": 0.5771,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5696
}
},
"edge": 0.0324,
"ev": 0.001,
"implied_prob": 0.4226,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2075,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0108,
"market_prob": 0.4661,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2282,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.1021,
"implied_prob": 0.5339,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.522
},
"p_final": 0.4769,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0605,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2075,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0605,
"implied_prob": 0.4661,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4769
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.054,
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.464,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1629431,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0774,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Samsunspor U19",
"home": "Erzurumspor U19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.028065,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.464,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0331,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2873,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1368,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1629431,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T11:02:13.918898+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Erzurumspor U19 & Samsunspor U19!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải U19 Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beşiktaş U19 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Trabzonspor U19 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 3 | Galatasaray U18 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Galatasaray U19 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Samsunspor U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Kocaelispor U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Konyaspor U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | İstanbul Başakşehir U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Gaziantep U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Fenerbahce U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Genclerbirligi U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Goztepe U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Eyupspor U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Amedspor U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Alanyaspor U19 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Rizespor U19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 16 | Kasimpasa U19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 | Corum U19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Erzurumspor U19 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray U19 | 6 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 12 |
| 2 | Galatasaray U18 | 5 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 12 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor U19 | 6 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 16 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş U19 | 6 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Fenerbahce U19 | 6 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Samsunspor U19 | 6 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 |
| 7 | Genclerbirligi U19 | 6 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 9 |
| 8 | Kocaelispor U19 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Konyaspor U19 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | İstanbul Başakşehir U19 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Eyupspor U19 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Goztepe U19 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Gaziantep U19 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor U19 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 1 |
| 15 | Corum U19 | 6 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 3 |
| 16 | Alanyaspor U19 | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 17 | Rizespor U19 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5 |
| 18 | Kasimpasa U19 | 6 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |
| 19 | Amedspor U19 | 6 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 7 |
