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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Plateau United Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.56
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Niger Tornadoes 1–1 Plateau United
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "cc89bdcc59309432e25c27f948ec42e2f949b50f48c7b5e332f6ad2b7c763e89",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Niger Tornadoes",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Niger Tornadoes"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Plateau United",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.2149,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.151,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 5.87
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 5.87,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Plateau United Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 6.62,
"market_odds": 5.87,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 12.8,
"prob_edge": 19.6,
"value_pct": 115.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Niger Tornadoes or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Niger Tornadoes or Plateau United",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Plateau United",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Niger Tornadoes or Plateau United",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Plateau United"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 115.0,
"implied_prob": 17.0,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Plateau United Win",
"model_prob": 36.6,
"odds": 5.87
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Plateau United",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 15.1,
"draw": 28.06,
"home": 56.84
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 15:01:21",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 14:34:50",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Niger Tornadoes",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.84,
"gap_pp": -23.08,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.06,
"gap_pp": 1.59,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 15.1,
"gap_pp": 21.49,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.74,
"gap_pp": 13.46,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.26,
"gap_pp": -13.46,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.56,
"early": 1.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.84,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.16,
"early": 3.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.06,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.06,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 5.87,
"early": 5.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 15.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 15.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.63,
"early": 2.63,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.74,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.4,
"early": 1.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 65.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 65.26,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 21.5,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1253,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0254,
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"market_prob": 0.3424,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1723,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0349,
"ev": -0.1344,
"implied_prob": 0.6576,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.6227
},
"p_final": 0.3678,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4552,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0181,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1253,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": -0.0181,
"implied_prob": 0.3424,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.3678
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.363,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -36.3,
"text": "-36.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.526,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 52.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.526,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10623.4,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"edge": 0.018,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.3594,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.3594,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3774
},
"p_final": 0.3774,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2243,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0414,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0248,
"ev": -0.1224,
"implied_prob": 0.6406,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6158
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2677,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 26.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2677,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10240.93,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 5.87,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0576,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.8,
"text": "+5.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.151,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0576,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.8,
"text": "+5.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1484,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+114.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Plateau United",
"sort_key": 10051.84,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -30.0%",
"alert_team": "Plateau United",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 23.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -23.07,
"hero_label": "Niger Tornadoes",
"market_prob_pct": 15.1,
"market_team": "Niger Tornadoes",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Plateau United",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Plateau United), but pricing still diverges by 23.1 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Plateau United), but pricing still diverges by 23.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.526,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011483,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 38,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Plateau United at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 15.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Plateau United as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Plateau United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +52.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +52.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +52.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "38 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+52.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Plateau United), but pricing still diverges by 23.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0576,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 5.87,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.151,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17035775127768313,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1484,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+114.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "3/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (23 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 13.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 23.07,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 23.07,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -30.0%",
"steam_team": "Plateau United",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Plateau United), but pricing still diverges by 23.1 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Plateau United), but pricing still diverges by 23.1 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Plateau United), but pricing still diverges by 23.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.526,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011483,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 38,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Plateau United at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 15.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Plateau United as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Plateau United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +52.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +52.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +52.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "38 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+52.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Plateau United), but pricing still diverges by 23.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0576,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 5.87,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.151,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17035775127768313,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1484,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+114.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Niger Tornadoes 1.27 xG vs Plateau United 1.33 \u2192 Plateau United 36.6%",
"Market: Niger Tornadoes ~15.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Plateau United \u2193 -30.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Plateau United, but market pricing diverges by 23 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -23.07,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Niger Tornadoes",
"market_prob": 56.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.58,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.49,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Plateau United",
"market_prob": 15.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.19,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.19,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.3,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 34.2,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.3,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 65.8,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -23.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Niger Tornadoes",
"market_prob_pct": 56.84,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Plateau United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Niger Tornadoes\u0027s win probability at 56.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 23.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 23.07,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Plateau United",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 15.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+21.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 21.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+21.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 21.5,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Plateau United \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+21.5 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Niger Tornadoes 1.27 xG vs Plateau United 1.33 \u2192 Plateau United 36.6%",
"Market: Niger Tornadoes ~15.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Plateau United \u2193 -30.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Plateau United, but market pricing diverges by 23 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -23.07,
"hero_label": "Niger Tornadoes",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Plateau United odds shortened \u2193 -30.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 23.07,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Niger Tornadoes",
"largest_gap_pp": -23.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Niger Tornadoes higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 23.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -23.07,
"edge_pp": -23.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Niger Tornadoes",
"market_prob_pct": 56.84,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.58,
"edge_pp": 1.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.06,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 21.49,
"edge_pp": 21.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Plateau United",
"market_prob_pct": 15.1,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Niger Tornadoes (15.1%).",
"However, Plateau United has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -30.0%, 3/6).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Plateau United, Market \u2192 Niger Tornadoes, Recent sharp money \u2192 Plateau United.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 64.1,
"closing_odds": 1.56,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 64.1,
"entry_odds": 1.56,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -30.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.8
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "3/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -30.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 30.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 50m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Plateau United (30.0%, 3/6) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"7.50",
"6.38",
"5.25"
],
"display": "9.30 \u2192 5.25 \u2192 5.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 50m",
"pick_team": "Plateau United",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "9.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
7.5,
5.87,
5.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,13.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 7.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Plateau United \u2193 -30.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Plateau United",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Plateau United \u2193 -30.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.25,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -30.0%",
"open_odds": 7.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Plateau United",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/6",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"move_display": "\u2193 -30.0%",
"open_odds": 7.5,
"pick_team": "Plateau United",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_team_name": "Plateau United",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 23.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "plateau-united",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Plateau United",
"away_team_id": 5190,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5190.webp",
"away_team_name": "Plateau United",
"away_team_public_id": "4gJwlty28tnTie",
"away_team_slug": "plateau-united",
"country_code": "NG",
"country_display_name": "Nigeria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ng.svg",
"country_id": 118,
"country_name": "Nigeria",
"fixture_id": 1628497,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Nigeria",
"home_team_display_name": "Niger Tornadoes",
"home_team_id": 5189,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5189.webp",
"home_team_name": "Niger Tornadoes",
"home_team_public_id": "32Sey2bN1MCOGN",
"home_team_slug": "niger-tornadoes",
"ht.home_team_slug": "niger-tornadoes",
"league_country": "Nigeria",
"league_country_display": "Nigeria",
"league_display_name": "NPFL",
"league_id": 399,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/399.webp",
"league_name": "NPFL",
"league_public_id": "2f8YNpNoRzrmtN",
"league_season": 2027,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 15:00:00",
"public_id": "4HGxntoJwNFaW3",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Bako Kontagora Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1355,
"best_odd": 5.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": 0.0576,
"implied_prob": 0.151,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.151,
"draw": 0.2806,
"home": 0.5684
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.1802
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2928,
"best_odd": 3.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.2806,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.151,
"draw": 0.2806,
"home": 0.5684
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2852
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3923,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0905,
"ev": -0.2546,
"implied_prob": 0.5684,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.151,
"draw": 0.2806,
"home": 0.5684
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.4778
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.87,
"edge": 0.1956,
"ev": 1.1483,
"implied_prob": 0.1704,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.16,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.0631,
"implied_prob": 0.3165,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.3035,
"ev": -0.4734,
"implied_prob": 0.641,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1723,
"alpha_yes": 0.1253,
"best_no_odd": 1.4,
"best_yes_odd": 2.8,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.203,
"edge_yes": 0.203,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.363,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1344,
"ev_yes": 0.526,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0181,
"implied_no": 0.658,
"implied_yes": 0.342,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1723,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0349,
"ev": -0.1344,
"implied_prob": 0.6576,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.6227
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1253,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": -0.0181,
"implied_prob": 0.3424,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.3678
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.6227,
"p_final_yes": 0.3678,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1469,
"alpha_under": 0.202,
"best_over_odd": 2.63,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.54,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.425,
"edge_over": 0.1219,
"edge_under": -0.1219,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2677,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0414,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1224,
"implied_over": 0.3601,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3594,
"implied_under": 0.6399,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6406,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.3594,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3774
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0248,
"ev": -0.1224,
"implied_prob": 0.6406,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6158
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3774,
"p_final_under": 0.6158,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.526,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.1483,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.526,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Plateau United), but pricing still diverges by 23.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.526,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011483,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 38,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Plateau United at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 15.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Plateau United as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Plateau United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +52.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +52.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +52.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "38 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+52.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Plateau United), but pricing still diverges by 23.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0576,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 5.87,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.151,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17035775127768313,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1484,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+114.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.87,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": 0.0576,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.151,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Plateau United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1253,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0254,
"market_prob": 0.3424,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1723,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0349,
"ev": -0.1344,
"implied_prob": 0.6576,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.6227
},
"p_final": 0.3678,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0181,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1253,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": -0.0181,
"implied_prob": 0.3424,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.3678
}
},
"edge": 0.203,
"ev": 0.526,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.342,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"edge": 0.018,
"market_prob": 0.3594,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.3594,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3774
},
"p_final": 0.3774,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0414,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0248,
"ev": -0.1224,
"implied_prob": 0.6406,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6158
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1219,
"ev": 0.2677,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3601,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1628497,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.526,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2677,
"implied_prob": 0.3601,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2677,
"implied_prob": 0.3601,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Plateau United",
"home": "Niger Tornadoes"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.28667,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.526,
"implied_prob": 0.342,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0576,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 5.87,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.151,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17035775127768313,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1484,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+114.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1628497,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T15:01:23.507042+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Niger Tornadoes & Plateau United!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
NPFL — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barau FC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Rivers United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | Plateau United | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Enugu Rangers | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Doma United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Kano Pillars | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Bendel Insurance | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Ikorodu City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Abia Warriors | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Kwara United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Ranchers Bees | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Sporting Lagos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Warri Wolves | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | Nasarawa United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Katsina United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 16 | Shooting Stars | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 17 | Niger Tornadoes | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 18 | Kun Khalifat FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 19 | Inter Lagos | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 20 | Enyimba | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rivers United | 5 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 11 |
| 2 | Kano Pillars | 5 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 9 |
| 3 | Barau FC | 6 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 12 |
| 4 | Plateau United | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 11 |
| 5 | Doma United | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Bendel Insurance | 6 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Ikorodu City | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Enugu Rangers | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Ranchers Bees | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Kwara United | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Sporting Lagos | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Abia Warriors | 6 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Nasarawa United | 6 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Shooting Stars | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 15 | Niger Tornadoes | 6 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Kun Khalifat FC | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 |
| 17 | Katsina United | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Warri Wolves | 5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 19 | Enyimba | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 20 | Inter Lagos | 6 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 |
