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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Recanatese Recanatese ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.85
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Recanatese win · Recanatese 4–1 Città di Foligno
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "b6d1e478ccdc1350fbdf6806ab5d20382b2616a180d412172a27096b4c59ea6d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"away_win_prob": 0.347,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.81,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.3564,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Citt\u00e0 di Foligno and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno"
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Recanatese",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0438,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3121,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.7,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 35.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.85
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.85,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Recanatese Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.2,
"market_odds": 2.85,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 12.4,
"prob_edge": 0.5,
"value_pct": 1.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 73.0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.29,
"home_expected": 1.31,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Recanatese or Draw",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Recanatese or Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"prob": 64.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Recanatese or Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.7,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Recanatese"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 1.5,
"implied_prob": 35.1,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Recanatese Win",
"model_prob": 35.6,
"odds": 2.85
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 38.01,
"draw": 30.78,
"home": 31.21
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 12:58:43",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 12:32:37",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Recanatese",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.21,
"gap_pp": 4.38,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.78,
"gap_pp": -1.1,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.01,
"gap_pp": -3.28,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.42,
"gap_pp": 6.78,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.58,
"gap_pp": -6.78,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.85,
"early": 2.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.21,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.21,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.89,
"early": 2.89,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.78,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.34,
"early": 2.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.01,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.22,
"early": 2.22,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.42,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.57,
"early": 1.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.58,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.7,
"ev": -0.118,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2054,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0119,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.424,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2054,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.424,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4359
},
"p_final": 0.4359,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0411,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0584,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.226,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0131,
"ev": -0.105,
"implied_prob": 0.576,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5629
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.07,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.0,
"text": "+7.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.07,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10213.0,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1454,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0074,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4938,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1454,
"best_odd": 1.805,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0998,
"implied_prob": 0.5062,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4987
},
"p_final": 0.5013,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0083,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0726,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1454,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0726,
"implied_prob": 0.4938,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5013
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1719,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.2,
"text": "-17.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0083,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.8,
"text": "+0.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0083,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5206.64,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese.",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.058,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.8,
"text": "-5.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3121,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.058,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.8,
"text": "-5.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0143,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Recanatese",
"sort_key": 1785.5,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"alert_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.43,
"hero_label": "Recanatese",
"market_prob_pct": 31.2,
"market_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Recanatese",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.07,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.07,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Recanatese at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Recanatese as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Recanatese",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.058,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3121,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0143,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.43,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.43,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"steam_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.07,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.07,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Recanatese at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Recanatese as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Recanatese",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.058,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3121,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0143,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Recanatese 1.31 xG vs Citt\u00e0 di Foligno 1.29 \u2192 Recanatese 35.6%",
"Market: Citt\u00e0 di Foligno ~31.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Citt\u00e0 di Foligno \u2193 -8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Recanatese, but sharp money moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 4.43,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Recanatese",
"market_prob": 31.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.13,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.31,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"market_prob": 38.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.54,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.54,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.12,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.12,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Recanatese",
"market_prob_pct": 31.21,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.43,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Recanatese",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.4,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Recanatese 1.31 xG vs Citt\u00e0 di Foligno 1.29 \u2192 Recanatese 35.6%",
"Market: Citt\u00e0 di Foligno ~31.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Citt\u00e0 di Foligno \u2193 -8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Recanatese, but sharp money moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.43,
"hero_label": "Recanatese",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno odds shortened \u2193 -8.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, with odds shortening by 8.3%.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Citt\u00e0 di Foligno \u2014 odds shortened by 8.3%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, with odds shortening by 8.3%.",
"Buying interest on Citt\u00e0 di Foligno \u2014 odds shortened by 8.3%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Citt\u00e0 di Foligno has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 8.3%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.43,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Recanatese",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 4.43,
"edge_pp": 4.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Recanatese",
"market_prob_pct": 31.21,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.13,
"edge_pp": -1.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.78,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.31,
"edge_pp": -3.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"market_prob_pct": 38.01,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Citt\u00e0 di Foligno \u2014 odds shortened by 8.3%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Citt\u00e0 di Foligno (31.2%).",
"However, Citt\u00e0 di Foligno has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -8.3%, 4/6).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Recanatese, Market \u2192 Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, Recent sharp money \u2192 Citt\u00e0 di Foligno.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.09,
"closing_odds": 2.85,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.09,
"entry_odds": 2.85,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.1
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Citt\u00e0 di Foligno (8.3%, 4/6) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.40",
"2.30",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.45 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 45m",
"pick_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.4,
2.34,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,5.4 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.4,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"summary": "Market moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_team_name": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "citta-di-foligno",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"away_team_id": 9496,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9496.webp",
"away_team_name": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"away_team_public_id": "3tY2FD8u6LtDlu",
"away_team_slug": "citta-di-foligno",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1626195,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Recanatese",
"home_team_id": 9517,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9517.webp",
"home_team_name": "Recanatese",
"home_team_public_id": "61onKJotETj95C",
"home_team_slug": "recanatese",
"ht.home_team_slug": "recanatese",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie D - Girone F",
"league_id": 431,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/431.webp",
"league_name": "Serie D - Girone F",
"league_public_id": "0P4KQELS5mXfDq",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 13:00:00",
"public_id": "4CqvujynJoFlq9",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Nicola Tubaldi"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4278,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.1434,
"implied_prob": 0.3801,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3801,
"draw": 0.3078,
"home": 0.3121
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3661
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4426,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0049,
"ev": -0.1246,
"implied_prob": 0.3078,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3801,
"draw": 0.3078,
"home": 0.3121
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.3029
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4204,
"best_odd": 2.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.058,
"implied_prob": 0.3121,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3801,
"draw": 0.3078,
"home": 0.3121
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3305
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": -0.0801,
"ev": -0.1874,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": -0.0492,
"ev": -0.1423,
"implied_prob": 0.346,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.85,
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": 0.0144,
"implied_prob": 0.3509,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1454,
"alpha_yes": 0.1454,
"best_no_odd": 1.82,
"best_yes_odd": 1.85,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0512,
"edge_yes": 0.0512,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1719,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0998,
"ev_yes": 0.0083,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0726,
"implied_no": 0.5062,
"implied_yes": 0.4938,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1454,
"best_odd": 1.805,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0998,
"implied_prob": 0.5062,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4987
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1454,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0726,
"implied_prob": 0.4938,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5013
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4987,
"p_final_yes": 0.5013,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2054,
"alpha_under": 0.226,
"best_over_odd": 2.22,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.16,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.59,
"edge_over": 0.0554,
"edge_under": -0.0554,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.07,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0584,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.105,
"implied_over": 0.4266,
"implied_over_mf": 0.424,
"implied_under": 0.5734,
"implied_under_mf": 0.576,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2054,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.424,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4359
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.226,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0131,
"ev": -0.105,
"implied_prob": 0.576,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5629
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4359,
"p_final_under": 0.5629,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.07,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.07,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.07,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.07,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.07,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Recanatese at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Recanatese as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Recanatese",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Citt\u00e0 di Foligno, but the model still strongly favours Recanatese.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.058,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3121,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0143,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.058,
"implied_prob": 0.3121,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Recanatese"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1454,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0074,
"market_prob": 0.4938,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1454,
"best_odd": 1.805,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0998,
"implied_prob": 0.5062,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4987
},
"p_final": 0.5013,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0726,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1454,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0726,
"implied_prob": 0.4938,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5013
}
},
"edge": 0.0512,
"ev": 0.0083,
"implied_prob": 0.4938,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2054,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0119,
"market_prob": 0.424,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2054,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.424,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4359
},
"p_final": 0.4359,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0584,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.226,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0131,
"ev": -0.105,
"implied_prob": 0.576,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5629
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0554,
"ev": 0.07,
"implied_prob": 0.4266,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1626195,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.07,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Citt\u00e0 di Foligno",
"home": "Recanatese"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.023618,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.07,
"implied_prob": 0.4266,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.058,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3121,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0143,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1626195,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T12:58:44.667624+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Recanatese & Città di Foligno!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Serie D - Girone F — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vigor Senigallia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Teramo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Città di Foligno | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | L'Aquila | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Ancona | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Santegidiese | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Atletico Ascoli | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Montecchio Gallo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Recanatese | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Fossombrone | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | San Nicolò | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Lanciano FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Termoli Calcio | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Maceratese | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | Angelana | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Pietralunga | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 17 | Real Giulianova | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Sporting Trestina | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teramo | 4 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | Vigor Senigallia | 4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 | L'Aquila | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 8 |
| 4 | Lanciano FC | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Recanatese | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 6 | Ancona | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Città di Foligno | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | San Nicolò | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Santegidiese | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Atletico Ascoli | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 12 | Montecchio Gallo | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 13 | Maceratese | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Angelana | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Real Giulianova | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Termoli Calcio | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Pietralunga | 5 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 18 | Sporting Trestina | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
