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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Garudayaksa Persik Kediri ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.79
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Persik Kediri win · Garudayaksa 0–2 Persik Kediri
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"away_win_prob": 0.3239,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.63,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"home_win_prob": 0.3801,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Garudayaksa",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.036,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4163,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.4,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.29
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.29,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Garudayaksa Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.4,
"market_odds": 2.29,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 4.9,
"prob_edge": -5.6,
"value_pct": -12.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 74.3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 1.36,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Garudayaksa or Draw",
"prob": 67.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Garudayaksa or Persik Kediri",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Persik Kediri",
"prob": 62.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Garudayaksa or Persik Kediri",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.4,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Garudayaksa"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 12.2,
"implied_prob": 26.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.79
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Persik Kediri",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 33.22,
"draw": 25.15,
"home": 41.63
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 08:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 07:59:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Garudayaksa",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.63,
"gap_pp": -3.6,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.15,
"gap_pp": 4.44,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.22,
"gap_pp": -0.84,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.44,
"gap_pp": -7.24,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.56,
"gap_pp": 7.24,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.29,
"early": 2.29,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.63,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.63,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.79,
"early": 3.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.15,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.15,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.87,
"early": 2.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.22,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.72,
"early": 1.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.44,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.14,
"early": 2.14,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.56,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.36,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.045,
"edge": 0.014,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.4525,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2343,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1006,
"implied_prob": 0.5475,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5322
},
"p_final": 0.4664,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0593,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0461,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"best_odd": 2.045,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0461,
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4664
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1085,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.8,
"text": "+10.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1085,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10247.65,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1776,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0072,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4157,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1776,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0698,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4228
},
"p_final": 0.4228,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0032,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0698,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2442,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.1009,
"implied_prob": 0.5843,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5745
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0488,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.9,
"text": "+4.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1242,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.4,
"text": "-12.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0488,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10043.92,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0817,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.2,
"text": "-8.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4163,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0004,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.0,
"text": "0.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1291,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.9%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Garudayaksa",
"sort_key": 5200.32,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"alert_team": "Garudayaksa",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.44,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 41.6,
"market_team": "Garudayaksa",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Garudayaksa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 4,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Garudayaksa)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Garudayaksa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1085,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1216,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Garudayaksa at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Garudayaksa as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Garudayaksa",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Garudayaksa).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0817,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4163,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1291,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.15384615384615385,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.5,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.44,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.44,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"steam_team": "Garudayaksa",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Garudayaksa).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Garudayaksa)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Garudayaksa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1085,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1216,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Garudayaksa at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Garudayaksa as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Garudayaksa",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Garudayaksa).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0817,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4163,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1291,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Garudayaksa 1.36 xG vs Persik Kediri 1.24 \u2192 Garudayaksa 38.0%",
"Market: Garudayaksa ~41.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Garudayaksa \u2193 -2.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Garudayaksa with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.62,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Garudayaksa",
"market_prob": 41.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.44,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.83,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Persik Kediri",
"market_prob": 33.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.59,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.59,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.91,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.91,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.15,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Garudayaksa"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.44,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Garudayaksa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.6,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Garudayaksa \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Garudayaksa 1.36 xG vs Persik Kediri 1.24 \u2192 Garudayaksa 38.0%",
"Market: Garudayaksa ~41.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Garudayaksa \u2193 -2.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Garudayaksa with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.44,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Garudayaksa odds shortened \u2193 -2.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Garudayaksa, with odds shortening by 2.3%. Confirmation remains limited (2/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Garudayaksa, with odds shortening by 2.3%. Confirmation remains limited (2/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Garudayaksa has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 2.3%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.44,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.62,
"edge_pp": -3.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Garudayaksa",
"market_prob_pct": 41.63,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.44,
"edge_pp": 4.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.15,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.83,
"edge_pp": -0.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Persik Kediri",
"market_prob_pct": 33.22,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Garudayaksa (41.6%).",
"Garudayaksa has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.3%, 2/13).",
"Garudayaksa \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.39,
"closing_odds": 3.79,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.39,
"entry_odds": 3.79,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.3
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "2/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Garudayaksa (swing 2.29 \u2192 2.03 \u2192 2.10) \u2014 net 2.3% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.29",
"2.20",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.29 \u2192 2.03 \u2192 2.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Garudayaksa",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.29"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.03"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.29,
2.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,13.3 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.29"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Garudayaksa",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Garudayaksa",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 4,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/13",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Garudayaksa",
"steam_score": 4,
"steam_team_name": "Garudayaksa",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "persik-kediri",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Persik Kediri",
"away_team_id": 4241,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4241.webp",
"away_team_name": "Persik Kediri",
"away_team_public_id": "4NDNQfrSzgJ0Ll",
"away_team_slug": "persik-kediri",
"country_code": "ID",
"country_display_name": "Indonesia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/id.svg",
"country_id": 74,
"country_name": "Indonesia",
"fixture_id": 1622763,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Indonesia",
"home_team_display_name": "Garudayaksa",
"home_team_id": 26645,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26645.webp",
"home_team_name": "Garudayaksa",
"home_team_public_id": "1CkFxUyn6eMtT9",
"home_team_slug": "garudayaksa",
"ht.home_team_slug": "garudayaksa",
"league_country": "Indonesia",
"league_country_display": "Indonesia",
"league_display_name": "Liga 1 Indonesia",
"league_id": 274,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/274.webp",
"league_name": "Liga 1 Indonesia",
"league_public_id": "3qTPOMnBlazfQJ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 08:30:00",
"public_id": "4Zysv9JCpaQRHy",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Cibinong",
"venue_name": "Pakansari Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4443,
"best_odd": 2.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0038,
"ev": -0.0575,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3322,
"draw": 0.2515,
"home": 0.4163
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3284
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.28,
"best_odd": 3.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": 0.0004,
"implied_prob": 0.2515,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3322,
"draw": 0.2515,
"home": 0.4163
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.264
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4257,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.0817,
"implied_prob": 0.4163,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3322,
"draw": 0.2515,
"home": 0.4163
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.401
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.87,
"edge": -0.0247,
"ev": -0.0709,
"implied_prob": 0.3484,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.79,
"edge": 0.0321,
"ev": 0.1216,
"implied_prob": 0.2639,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": -0.0563,
"ev": -0.129,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1776,
"alpha_yes": 0.2442,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.61,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0391,
"edge_yes": -0.0391,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0488,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0698,
"ev_yes": -0.1242,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1009,
"implied_no": 0.4169,
"implied_yes": 0.5831,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1776,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0698,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4228
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2442,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.1009,
"implied_prob": 0.5843,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5745
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"p_final_no": 0.4228,
"p_final_yes": 0.5745,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2343,
"alpha_under": 0.213,
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.14,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.69,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.045,
"edge_over": -0.0659,
"edge_under": 0.0659,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1006,
"ev_under": 0.1085,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0461,
"implied_over": 0.5479,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5475,
"implied_under": 0.4521,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4525,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2343,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1006,
"implied_prob": 0.5475,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5322
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"best_odd": 2.045,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0461,
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4664
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5322,
"p_final_under": 0.4664,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1085,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1216,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1085,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Garudayaksa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1085,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1216,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Garudayaksa at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Garudayaksa as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Garudayaksa",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Garudayaksa).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0817,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4163,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1291,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.0817,
"implied_prob": 0.4163,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Garudayaksa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1776,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0072,
"market_prob": 0.4157,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1776,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0698,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4228
},
"p_final": 0.4228,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0698,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2442,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.1009,
"implied_prob": 0.5843,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5745
}
},
"edge": 0.0391,
"ev": 0.0488,
"implied_prob": 0.4169,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.045,
"edge": 0.014,
"market_prob": 0.4525,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2343,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1006,
"implied_prob": 0.5475,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5322
},
"p_final": 0.4664,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0461,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"best_odd": 2.045,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0461,
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4664
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0659,
"ev": 0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.4521,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1622763,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1085,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Persik Kediri",
"home": "Garudayaksa"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.039342,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.4521,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0817,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4163,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1291,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1622763,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T08:29:08.121754+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Garudayaksa & Persik Kediri!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga 1 Indonesia — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dewa United | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Persepam Madura United | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Persija | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Bali United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Persib Bandung | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Borneo FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Arema FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Bhayangkara FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Persita Tangerang | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Persebaya Surabaya | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Persik Kediri | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | PSM Makassar | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Garudayaksa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 14 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Persijap Jepara | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | Malut United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| 18 | Adhyaksa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dewa United | 4 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 2 | Arema FC | 3 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 5 |
| 3 | Persepam Madura United | 3 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Bali United | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 | Persib Bandung | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | Persita Tangerang | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 7 | PSM Makassar | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 2 |
| 8 | Bhayangkara FC | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 | Persija | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 10 | Persebaya Surabaya | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Persik Kediri | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 12 | Borneo FC | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Malut United | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | -1 |
| 14 | PSS Sleman | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Garudayaksa | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Persijap Jepara | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Adhyaksa | 3 | 1 | 10 | -9 | -2 |
