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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Newcastle United U21 Leeds United U21 ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.87
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Leeds United U21 win · Leeds United U21 2–0 Newcastle United U21
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"away_win_prob": 0.3706,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2963,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.7,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"fair_odds_home": 3.0,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"home_win_prob": 0.3331,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Leeds United U21 and +2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Leeds United U21"
},
"away_xg": 1.34,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Newcastle United U21",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0127,
"edge_gap": 0.0371,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3832,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.1,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.39
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.39,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Newcastle United U21 Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.61,
"market_odds": 2.39,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -4.8,
"value_pct": -11.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 73.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 71.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.34,
"home_expected": 1.26,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Leeds United U21 or Draw",
"prob": 62.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Leeds United U21 or Newcastle United U21",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Newcastle United U21",
"prob": 66.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Leeds United U21 or Newcastle United U21",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.3,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Newcastle United U21"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+2.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 3.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 14.6,
"implied_prob": 25.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.87
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Newcastle United U21",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 38.32,
"draw": 23.67,
"home": 38.01
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 11:31:47",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 11:05:27",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Leeds United U21",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.01,
"gap_pp": -4.66,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.67,
"gap_pp": 5.93,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.32,
"gap_pp": -1.27,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.69,
"gap_pp": -17.49,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.31,
"gap_pp": 17.49,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.41,
"early": 2.41,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.01,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.87,
"early": 3.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.39,
"early": 2.39,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.32,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.41,
"early": 1.41,
"implied_closing_pct": 65.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 65.69,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.7,
"early": 2.7,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.31,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.31,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 2.0,
"ev": 0.1875,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.5,
"market_prob": 0.1053,
"market_prob_pct": 10.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.26,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.128,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.78,
"edge": 0.0247,
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"market_prob": 0.3252,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1759,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.0339,
"ev": -0.1413,
"implied_prob": 0.6748,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6408
},
"p_final": 0.3499,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.44,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0273,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.128,
"best_odd": 2.78,
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": -0.0273,
"implied_prob": 0.3252,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3499
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3204,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -32.0,
"text": "-32.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.554,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 55.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.554,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10648.6,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1417,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.915,
"edge": 0.0201,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.3133,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1417,
"best_odd": 2.915,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0282,
"implied_prob": 0.3133,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3334
},
"p_final": 0.3334,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3263,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0282,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1949,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.1234,
"implied_prob": 0.6867,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6591
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4105,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 41.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.9,
"text": "-25.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.4105,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10369.45,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0975,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.8,
"text": "-9.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3832,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0213,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.1,
"text": "-2.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1145,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Newcastle United U21",
"sort_key": 1794.675,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.96,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 38.3,
"market_team": "Newcastle United U21",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Newcastle United U21",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newcastle United U21)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newcastle United U21)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Newcastle United U21 at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Newcastle United U21 as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Newcastle United U21",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newcastle United U21).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0975,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3832,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41841004184100417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1145,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.96,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.96,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Leeds United U21",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newcastle United U21).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newcastle United U21)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newcastle United U21)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Newcastle United U21 at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Newcastle United U21 as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Newcastle United U21",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newcastle United U21).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0975,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3832,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41841004184100417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1145,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Leeds United U21 1.26 xG vs Newcastle United U21 1.34 \u2192 Newcastle United U21 37.1%",
"Market: Newcastle United U21 ~38.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Leeds United U21 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Newcastle United U21 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.7,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Leeds United U21",
"market_prob": 38.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.96,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.26,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Newcastle United U21",
"market_prob": 38.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.58,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.78,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.58,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.22,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.18,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 68.68,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.18,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 31.32,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.67,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Leeds United U21"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.7%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.96,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Newcastle United U21",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Newcastle United U21 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Leeds United U21 1.26 xG vs Newcastle United U21 1.34 \u2192 Newcastle United U21 37.1%",
"Market: Newcastle United U21 ~38.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Leeds United U21 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Newcastle United U21 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.96,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Leeds United U21 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Leeds United U21.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, Leeds United U21 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Leeds United U21."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Leeds United U21 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Leeds United U21."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.96,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.0,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.7,
"edge_pp": -4.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Leeds United U21",
"market_prob_pct": 38.01,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.96,
"edge_pp": 5.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.67,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.26,
"edge_pp": -1.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Newcastle United U21",
"market_prob_pct": 38.32,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Leeds United U21.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Newcastle United U21 (38.3%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Newcastle United U21, Market \u2192 Newcastle United U21, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.84,
"closing_odds": 3.87,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.84,
"entry_odds": 3.87,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Leeds United U21",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Leeds United U21",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "newcastle-united-u21",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Newcastle United U21",
"away_team_id": 7199,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7199.webp",
"away_team_name": "Newcastle United U21",
"away_team_public_id": "52RUfAbec4CM1O",
"away_team_slug": "newcastle-united-u21",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1621041,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Leeds United U21",
"home_team_id": 14430,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14430.webp",
"home_team_name": "Leeds United U21",
"home_team_public_id": "5ZpaFsDZSpMPWk",
"home_team_slug": "leeds-united-u21",
"ht.home_team_slug": "leeds-united-u21",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Premier League 2 Division One",
"league_id": 702,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/702.webp",
"league_name": "Premier League 2 Division One",
"league_public_id": "1O4UNf5bqWwkPw",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 11:30:00",
"public_id": "4sXJQbWA9wmBRo",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "York",
"venue_name": "LNER Community Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4414,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0056,
"ev": -0.0975,
"implied_prob": 0.3832,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3832,
"draw": 0.2367,
"home": 0.3801
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3776
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2733,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0213,
"implied_prob": 0.2367,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3832,
"draw": 0.2367,
"home": 0.3801
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2529
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4186,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.131,
"implied_prob": 0.3801,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3832,
"draw": 0.2367,
"home": 0.3801
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3606
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": -0.0479,
"ev": -0.1144,
"implied_prob": 0.4184,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.87,
"edge": 0.0376,
"ev": 0.1455,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": -0.0815,
"ev": -0.1963,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1417,
"alpha_yes": 0.1949,
"best_no_odd": 3.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1418,
"edge_yes": -0.1418,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4105,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0282,
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1234,
"implied_no": 0.3132,
"implied_yes": 0.6868,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1417,
"best_odd": 2.915,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0282,
"implied_prob": 0.3133,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3334
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1949,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.1234,
"implied_prob": 0.6867,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6591
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3334,
"p_final_yes": 0.6591,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1759,
"alpha_under": 0.128,
"best_over_odd": 1.41,
"best_under_odd": 3.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.34,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.78,
"edge_over": -0.1958,
"edge_under": 0.1958,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3204,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1413,
"ev_under": 0.554,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0273,
"implied_over": 0.6778,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6748,
"implied_under": 0.3222,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3252,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1759,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.0339,
"ev": -0.1413,
"implied_prob": 0.6748,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6408
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.128,
"best_odd": 2.78,
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": -0.0273,
"implied_prob": 0.3252,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3499
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6408,
"p_final_under": 0.3499,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.554,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newcastle United U21)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Newcastle United U21 at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Newcastle United U21 as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Newcastle United U21",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newcastle United U21).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0975,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3832,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41841004184100417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1145,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0056,
"ev": -0.0975,
"implied_prob": 0.3832,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Newcastle United U21"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1417,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.915,
"edge": 0.0201,
"market_prob": 0.3133,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1417,
"best_odd": 2.915,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0282,
"implied_prob": 0.3133,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3334
},
"p_final": 0.3334,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0282,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1949,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.1234,
"implied_prob": 0.6867,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6591
}
},
"edge": 0.1418,
"ev": 0.4105,
"implied_prob": 0.3132,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.128,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.78,
"edge": 0.0247,
"market_prob": 0.3252,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1759,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.0339,
"ev": -0.1413,
"implied_prob": 0.6748,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6408
},
"p_final": 0.3499,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0273,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.128,
"best_odd": 2.78,
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": -0.0273,
"implied_prob": 0.3252,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3499
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1958,
"ev": 0.554,
"implied_prob": 0.3222,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1621041,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.554,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4105,
"implied_prob": 0.3132,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4105,
"implied_prob": 0.3132,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Newcastle United U21",
"home": "Leeds United U21"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.20088,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.554,
"implied_prob": 0.3222,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0975,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3832,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41841004184100417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1145,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1621041,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T11:31:49.300353+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Leeds United U21 & Newcastle United U21!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Premier League 2 Division One — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Manchester United U21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Chelsea U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Sunderland U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Liverpool U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Fulham U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Leeds United U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Reading U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Norwich City U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Brentford U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Everton U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 15 | West Ham United U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 17 | Stoke City U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 19 | Brighton U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 20 | Derby County U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 21 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 22 | Burnley U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 23 | Arsenal U21 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 24 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 25 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 26 | Birmingham City U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 27 | Middlesbrough U21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 28 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 29 | Leicester City U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 30 | Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 | Wolverhampton Wanderers U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 4 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | Chelsea U21 | 4 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Sunderland U21 | 4 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Manchester United U21 | 3 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 9 |
| 5 | Fulham U21 | 4 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Leeds United U21 | 4 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | Brentford U21 | 4 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 | Derby County U21 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Liverpool U21 | 4 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 11 | Burnley U21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 14 | Stoke City U21 | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 15 | Reading U21 | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 16 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 18 | Aston Villa U21 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 19 | Brighton U21 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | Middlesbrough U21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 |
| 21 | Norwich City U21 | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 22 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 23 | West Ham United U21 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 24 | Birmingham City U21 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2 |
| 25 | Everton U21 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 26 | Arsenal U21 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 27 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 28 | Crystal Palace U21 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 29 | Leicester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
| 30 | Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
| 31 | Wolverhampton Wanderers U21 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 |
