Sunderland U21 vs Norwich City U21 Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.3194,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.456,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2957,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.13,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.6,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.37,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3849,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Winner : Sunderland U21",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Sunderland U21"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.23,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Sunderland U21",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.1053,
        "edge_gap": 0.0651,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.49,
        "model_prob": 0.3846,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 32.0,
          "draw": 29.6,
          "home": 38.5
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.87
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.87,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Sunderland U21 Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.04,
        "market_odds": 1.87,
        "model_odds": 2.6,
        "overround": 9.1,
        "prob_edge": -15.0,
        "value_pct": -28.1,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 2,
        "away_failed_to_score": 1,
        "away_played": 3,
        "away_score_rate": 70.8,
        "home_clean_sheet": 0,
        "home_failed_to_score": 0,
        "home_played": 3,
        "home_score_rate": 74.6,
        "no_prob": 45.6,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.4
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.23,
        "home_expected": 1.37,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.2
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 9.1
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.6
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 7.7
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Sunderland U21 or Draw",
            "prob": 68.1
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Sunderland U21 or Norwich City U21",
            "prob": 70.4
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Norwich City U21",
            "prob": 61.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Sunderland U21 or Norwich City U21",
        "pick_prob": 70.4
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 31.9,
        "draw_pct": 29.6,
        "home_pct": 38.5,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Sunderland U21"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.7,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 3.3,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 27.6,
        "implied_prob": 23.2,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 29.6,
        "odds": 4.31
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Norwich City U21",
      "closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
        "away": 29.75,
        "draw": 21.26,
        "home": 49.0
      },
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 18:02:06",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 17:33:35",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Sunderland U21",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 49.0,
          "gap_pp": -10.53,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 38.46
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 21.26,
          "gap_pp": 8.33,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 29.59
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 29.75,
          "gap_pp": 2.2,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 31.95
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.87,
          "early": 1.87,
          "implied_closing_pct": 49.0,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 49.0,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 4.31,
          "early": 4.31,
          "implied_closing_pct": 21.26,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 21.26,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.08,
          "early": 3.08,
          "implied_closing_pct": 29.75,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 29.75,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 8.3,
        "kind": "1x2_d"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "lean_card": {
        "diff_pp": 2.5,
        "ev": 0.25,
        "has_edge": true,
        "label": "1-1",
        "market_odds": 10.0,
        "market_prob": 0.1,
        "market_prob_pct": 10.0,
        "model_prob": 0.125,
        "model_prob_pct": 12.5,
        "n_bookmakers": 5,
        "status_key": "positive_edge"
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.5
      },
      "top5": [
        {
          "label": "1-1",
          "prob": 12.5
        },
        {
          "label": "1-0",
          "prob": 10.2
        },
        {
          "label": "0-1",
          "prob": 9.1
        },
        {
          "label": "2-1",
          "prob": 8.6
        },
        {
          "label": "1-2",
          "prob": 7.7
        }
      ]
    },
    "home_xg": 1.37,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 3.25,
          "edge": 0.0188,
          "edge_pp": 1.9,
          "market_prob": 0.2826,
          "mode": "market_first_ou",
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "over": {
            "alpha": 0.1601,
            "best_odd": 1.28,
            "edge": -0.0377,
            "ev": -0.1299,
            "implied_prob": 0.7174,
            "model_prob": 0.482,
            "p_final": 0.6797
          },
          "p_final": 0.3014,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "raw_edge_pp": 23.5,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.6835,
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            "best_odd": 3.25,
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            "ev": -0.0205,
            "implied_prob": 0.2826,
            "model_prob": 0.518,
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          "value_side": "under"
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.3734,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -37.3,
          "text": "-37.3%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.7612,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 76.1,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.7612,
        "n_bookmakers": 4,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "sort_key": 10835.08,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 51.8,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.0853,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 3.06,
          "edge": 0.0137,
          "edge_pp": 1.4,
          "market_prob": 0.2949,
          "mode": "market_first_btts",
          "model_prob": 0.456,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "no": {
            "alpha": 0.0853,
            "best_odd": 3.06,
            "edge": 0.0137,
            "ev": -0.0555,
            "implied_prob": 0.2949,
            "model_prob": 0.456,
            "p_final": 0.3087
          },
          "p_final": 0.3087,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "raw_edge_pp": 16.1,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.3954,
          "risk_adj_ev": -0.0555,
          "value_side": "no",
          "yes": {
            "alpha": 0.1877,
            "best_odd": 1.28,
            "edge": -0.0302,
            "ev": -0.1362,
            "implied_prob": 0.7051,
            "model_prob": 0.544,
            "p_final": 0.6748
          }
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.5048,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 50.5,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "ev_yes": -0.2765,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -27.7,
          "text": "-27.7%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.5048,
        "n_bookmakers": 5,
        "no_prob": 45.6,
        "sort_key": 10454.32,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 54.4
      },
      {
        "authority_action": "lean",
        "authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
        "consensus_odds": 1.87,
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
        "disagreement_level": "moderate",
        "ev": -0.1833,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -18.3,
          "text": "-18.3%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.49,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "max_ev": -0.021,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -2.1,
          "text": "-2.1%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.3846,
        "raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.2808,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%",
        "show_primary_label": false,
        "side_label": "Sunderland U21",
        "sort_key": 1794.75,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.5
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "",
        "alert_breadth_note": "",
        "alert_move": "",
        "alert_team": "",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 10.5,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": -10.51,
        "hero_label": "Sunderland U21",
        "market_prob_pct": 49.0,
        "market_team": "Sunderland U21",
        "model_prob_pct": 38.5,
        "model_team": "Sunderland U21",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": null,
        "steam_subtitle": "",
        "steam_tier": "",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "market_disagree",
            "read_min": 5,
            "title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
            "url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 10.5,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "moderate",
          "probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sunderland U21)."
        },
        "authority": {
          "action": "lean",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 10.5,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "moderate",
            "probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sunderland U21)."
          },
          "alignment_key": "agree",
          "best_consensus_ev": 0.7612,
          "best_outlier_ev": 0.7612,
          "confidence_band": "Moderate",
          "decision_strength": 5.6,
          "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
          "decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
          "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
          "execution_confidence": 48,
          "extreme_disagreement": false,
          "final_verdict_audit": {
            "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
            "action_label": "Action",
            "decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
            "is_primary": false,
            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sunderland U21 at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Sunderland U21 as the value side (38.5%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                "tone": "bad"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 10.5,
          "gates_failed": [
            "Reliability below 65"
          ],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u2192",
          "label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
          "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Sunderland U21",
          "no_primary_reasons": {
            "all_triggered": [
              "market_quality",
              "calibration_risk"
            ],
            "calibration_mode": "soft",
            "codes": [
              "market_quality",
              "calibration_risk"
            ],
            "label": "Reason",
            "other_factors": [
              {
                "code": "calibration_risk",
                "detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
                "name": "Calibration Risk",
                "short": "Calibration Risk",
                "tone": "danger"
              }
            ],
            "other_label": "Other factors",
            "primary": {
              "code": "market_quality",
              "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
              "name": "Market Quality Risk",
              "short": "Market Quality Risk",
              "tone": "warn"
            },
            "secondary": {
              "code": "calibration_risk",
              "detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
              "name": "Calibration Risk",
              "short": "Calibration Risk",
              "tone": "danger"
            },
            "version": "v1"
          },
          "outlier_detected": false,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
          "primary_allowed": false,
          "primary_block_explain": {
            "entries": [
              {
                "key": "positive_ev",
                "label": "Consensus EV +76.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                "ok": true
              },
              {
                "key": "gate",
                "label": "Reliability below 65",
                "ok": false
              }
            ],
            "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
            "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
            "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
            "title": "Why not Primary?"
          },
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +76.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +76.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "warning"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "61 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "48 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "agree"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+76.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 6,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": null,
          "reasons": [
            "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sunderland U21).",
            "Decision strength: 5.6/10",
            "Reliability below 65"
          ],
          "reliability_score": 61,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Market aligns with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV",
            "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
          ],
          "subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "lean",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": -0.1833,
            "consensus_ev_display": "-18.3%",
            "consensus_odds": 1.87,
            "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
            "disagreement_level": "moderate",
            "implied_prob": 0.49,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.3846,
            "raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.53475935828877,
            "raw_signal_ev": -0.2808,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "calibration_status": "warning",
            "deviation_pct": 1.5,
            "reasons": [
              "Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
            ],
            "recommended_action": "monitor",
            "strength_delta": -1.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "low",
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "separation_score": -10,
              "strength_delta": -1.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.14
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "lean",
        "books_breadth_display": "2/7",
        "breadth_ratio": 0.2857142857142857,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 55,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam detected",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation warning",
              "status": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 2,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Warning",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "gap",
              "label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
              "tone": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 19.7,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 2.9,
            "steam_coherence": 7.0,
            "validation": 14.0
          },
          "score": 61,
          "stars": 3,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 10.51,
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "max_gap_pp": 10.51,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.23,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 1.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.37,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.37,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": false,
        "mv_status": "warning",
        "odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
        "steam_conflicts": null,
        "steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
        "steam_team": "Sunderland U21",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Betting Confidence",
            "score": 48,
            "tier": "moderate",
            "tier_label": "Moderate"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 47,
            "tier": "moderate",
            "tier_label": "Moderate"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 38,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 47,
            "tier": "moderate",
            "tier_label": "Moderate"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "lean",
            "label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 10.5,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "moderate",
            "probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sunderland U21)."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "lean",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": true,
              "direction_key": "agree",
              "gap_pp": 10.5,
              "key": "agree",
              "label": "Agree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": true,
              "pricing_key": "moderate",
              "probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
              "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sunderland U21)."
            },
            "alignment_key": "agree",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.7612,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.7612,
            "confidence_band": "Moderate",
            "decision_strength": 5.6,
            "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
            "decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
            "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
            "execution_confidence": 48,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": false,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sunderland U21 at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Sunderland U21 as the value side (38.5%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                  "tone": "bad"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 10.5,
            "gates_failed": [
              "Reliability below 65"
            ],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u2192",
            "label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
            "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Sunderland U21",
            "no_primary_reasons": {
              "all_triggered": [
                "market_quality",
                "calibration_risk"
              ],
              "calibration_mode": "soft",
              "codes": [
                "market_quality",
                "calibration_risk"
              ],
              "label": "Reason",
              "other_factors": [
                {
                  "code": "calibration_risk",
                  "detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
                  "name": "Calibration Risk",
                  "short": "Calibration Risk",
                  "tone": "danger"
                }
              ],
              "other_label": "Other factors",
              "primary": {
                "code": "market_quality",
                "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                "tone": "warn"
              },
              "secondary": {
                "code": "calibration_risk",
                "detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
                "name": "Calibration Risk",
                "short": "Calibration Risk",
                "tone": "danger"
              },
              "version": "v1"
            },
            "outlier_detected": false,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
            "primary_allowed": false,
            "primary_block_explain": {
              "entries": [
                {
                  "key": "positive_ev",
                  "label": "Consensus EV +76.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                  "ok": true
                },
                {
                  "key": "gate",
                  "label": "Reliability below 65",
                  "ok": false
                }
              ],
              "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
              "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
              "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
              "title": "Why not Primary?"
            },
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +76.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +76.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "warning"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "61 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "48 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "agree"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+76.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 6,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": null,
            "reasons": [
              "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sunderland U21).",
              "Decision strength: 5.6/10",
              "Reliability below 65"
            ],
            "reliability_score": 61,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Market aligns with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV",
              "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
            ],
            "subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "lean",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": -0.1833,
              "consensus_ev_display": "-18.3%",
              "consensus_odds": 1.87,
              "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
              "disagreement_level": "moderate",
              "implied_prob": 0.49,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.3846,
              "raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.53475935828877,
              "raw_signal_ev": -0.2808,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "calibration_status": "warning",
              "deviation_pct": 1.5,
              "reasons": [
                "Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
              ],
              "recommended_action": "monitor",
              "strength_delta": -1.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "low",
                "block_value_alert": false,
                "separation_score": -10,
                "strength_delta": -1.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.14
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u2192",
          "label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
          "subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
          "tier": "lean"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Sunderland U21 1.37 xG vs Norwich City U21 1.23 \u2192 Sunderland U21 38.5%",
            "Market: Sunderland U21 ~49.0% implied",
            "Market Steam: Sunderland U21 +0.0%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sunderland U21 with no major conflict.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -10.51,
          "fair_prob": 38.49,
          "label": "Sunderland U21",
          "market_prob": 49.0,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.31,
          "fair_prob": 29.57,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 21.26,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 2.19,
          "fair_prob": 31.94,
          "label": "Norwich City U21",
          "market_prob": 29.75,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -23.61,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 71.81,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 23.61,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 28.19,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -16.02,
          "fair_prob": 54.4,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 70.42,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 16.02,
          "fair_prob": 45.6,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 29.58,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -10.51,
        "fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Sunderland U21",
        "market_prob_pct": 49.0,
        "status": "strong_market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Sunderland U21"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sunderland U21\u0027s win probability at 49.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 10.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 10.51,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Sunderland U21",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Supports model direction",
            "positive": true
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 49.0,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": -10.5,
          "model_prob_pct": 38.5,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": -10.5,
            "label": "Moderate",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_score": 61,
          "reliability_tier": "limited",
          "summary": "Sunderland U21 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Betting Confidence",
              "score": 48,
              "tier": "moderate",
              "tier_label": "Moderate"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 47,
              "tier": "moderate",
              "tier_label": "Moderate"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 38,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 47,
              "tier": "moderate",
              "tier_label": "Moderate"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "lean",
              "label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Sunderland U21 1.37 xG vs Norwich City U21 1.23 \u2192 Sunderland U21 38.5%",
              "Market: Sunderland U21 ~49.0% implied",
              "Market Steam: Sunderland U21 +0.0%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sunderland U21 with no major conflict.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -10.51,
        "hero_label": "Sunderland U21",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Sunderland U21 than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Sunderland U21 than the current fair estimate.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about Sunderland U21 than the current fair estimate."
          ],
          "quiet_market": true,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors Sunderland U21 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
            "The market materially disagrees with the model on Sunderland U21 (pricing gap 10.5 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 10.51,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
          "max_prob_pct": 38.5,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "strong",
          "largest_gap_label": "Sunderland U21",
          "largest_gap_pp": -10.5,
          "lead": "The closing market prices Sunderland U21 higher than the statistical model.",
          "level": "strong",
          "max_gap_pp": 10.5,
          "title": "Strong Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": -10.51,
            "edge_pp": -10.51,
            "fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Sunderland U21",
            "market_prob_pct": 49.0,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 8.31,
            "edge_pp": 8.31,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 21.26,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "model_higher",
            "signal_label": "Model Higher"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 2.19,
            "edge_pp": 2.19,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Norwich City U21",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.75,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Sunderland U21 than the current fair estimate.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Sunderland U21 (49.0%).",
          "Sunderland U21 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 53.48,
        "closing_odds": 1.87,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 53.48,
        "entry_odds": 1.87,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "2/7",
        "current_odds": 1.85,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 1.85,
        "pick_team": "Sunderland U21",
        "steam_score": 3,
        "steam_team_name": "Sunderland U21",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 10.5,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "norwich-city-u21",
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Norwich City U21",
      "away_team_id": 7200,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7200.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Norwich City U21",
      "away_team_public_id": "5S1JNcEipQloTT",
      "away_team_slug": "norwich-city-u21",
      "country_code": "GB-ENG",
      "country_display_name": "England",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
      "country_id": 49,
      "country_name": "England",
      "fixture_id": 1621035,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "England",
      "home_team_display_name": "Sunderland U21",
      "home_team_id": 11915,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11915.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Sunderland U21",
      "home_team_public_id": "1dfg4ck9lpsSCM",
      "home_team_slug": "sunderland-u21",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "sunderland-u21",
      "league_country": "England",
      "league_country_display": "England",
      "league_display_name": "Premier League 2 Division One",
      "league_id": 702,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/702.webp",
      "league_name": "Premier League 2 Division One",
      "league_public_id": "1O4UNf5bqWwkPw",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-09-18 18:00:00",
      "public_id": "0YXhRsiDFsZlkM",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Sunderland",
      "venue_name": "Eppleton Colliery Welfare Ground"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2901,
            "best_odd": 3.08,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0064,
            "ev": -0.0641,
            "implied_prob": 0.2975,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2975,
              "draw": 0.2126,
              "home": 0.49
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3195,
            "p_final": 0.3039
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.175,
            "best_odd": 4.31,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0146,
            "ev": -0.021,
            "implied_prob": 0.2126,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2975,
              "draw": 0.2126,
              "home": 0.49
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2959,
            "p_final": 0.2272
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5052,
            "best_odd": 1.87,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0532,
            "ev": -0.1833,
            "implied_prob": 0.49,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2975,
              "draw": 0.2126,
              "home": 0.49
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3846,
            "p_final": 0.4367
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 3.08,
            "edge": -0.0052,
            "ev": -0.0159,
            "implied_prob": 0.3247,
            "model_prob": 0.3195
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 4.31,
            "edge": 0.0639,
            "ev": 0.2752,
            "implied_prob": 0.232,
            "model_prob": 0.2959
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 1.87,
            "edge": -0.1501,
            "ev": -0.2807,
            "implied_prob": 0.5348,
            "model_prob": 0.3846
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.0853,
          "alpha_yes": 0.1877,
          "best_no_odd": 3.3,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.33,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": 0.1602,
          "edge_yes": -0.1602,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.5048,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0555,
          "ev_yes": -0.2765,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1362,
          "implied_no": 0.2958,
          "implied_yes": 0.7042,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.0853,
              "best_odd": 3.06,
              "edge": 0.0137,
              "ev": -0.0555,
              "implied_prob": 0.2949,
              "model_prob": 0.456,
              "p_final": 0.3087
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.1877,
              "best_odd": 1.28,
              "edge": -0.0302,
              "ev": -0.1362,
              "implied_prob": 0.7051,
              "model_prob": 0.544,
              "p_final": 0.6748
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "p_final_no": 0.3087,
          "p_final_yes": 0.6748,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.1601,
          "alpha_under": 0.08,
          "best_over_odd": 1.3,
          "best_under_odd": 3.4,
          "consensus_over_odd": 1.28,
          "consensus_under_odd": 3.25,
          "edge_over": -0.2361,
          "edge_under": 0.2361,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.3734,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1299,
          "ev_under": 0.7612,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0205,
          "implied_over": 0.7181,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.7174,
          "implied_under": 0.2819,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.2826,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 4,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.1601,
              "best_odd": 1.28,
              "edge": -0.0377,
              "ev": -0.1299,
              "implied_prob": 0.7174,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.6797
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.08,
              "best_odd": 3.25,
              "edge": 0.0188,
              "ev": -0.0205,
              "implied_prob": 0.2826,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.3014
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.6797,
          "p_final_under": 0.3014,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.7612,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.7612,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.7612,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 5.6,
        "score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 5.6,
        "score_pre_penalty": 6.6
      },
      "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "lean",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "lean",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 10.5,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "moderate",
          "probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sunderland U21)."
        },
        "alignment_key": "agree",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.7612,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.7612,
        "confidence_band": "Moderate",
        "decision_strength": 5.6,
        "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
        "decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
        "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
        "execution_confidence": 48,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": false,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sunderland U21 at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Sunderland U21 as the value side (38.5%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
              "tone": "bad"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 10.5,
        "gates_failed": [
          "Reliability below 65"
        ],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u2192",
        "label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
        "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Sunderland U21",
        "no_primary_reasons": {
          "all_triggered": [
            "market_quality",
            "calibration_risk"
          ],
          "calibration_mode": "soft",
          "codes": [
            "market_quality",
            "calibration_risk"
          ],
          "label": "Reason",
          "other_factors": [
            {
              "code": "calibration_risk",
              "detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
              "name": "Calibration Risk",
              "short": "Calibration Risk",
              "tone": "danger"
            }
          ],
          "other_label": "Other factors",
          "primary": {
            "code": "market_quality",
            "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
            "name": "Market Quality Risk",
            "short": "Market Quality Risk",
            "tone": "warn"
          },
          "secondary": {
            "code": "calibration_risk",
            "detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
            "name": "Calibration Risk",
            "short": "Calibration Risk",
            "tone": "danger"
          },
          "version": "v1"
        },
        "outlier_detected": false,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
        "primary_allowed": false,
        "primary_block_explain": {
          "entries": [
            {
              "key": "positive_ev",
              "label": "Consensus EV +76.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
              "ok": true
            },
            {
              "key": "gate",
              "label": "Reliability below 65",
              "ok": false
            }
          ],
          "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
          "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
          "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
          "title": "Why not Primary?"
        },
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +76.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +76.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "warning"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "61 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "48 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "agree"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+76.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 6,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": null,
        "reasons": [
          "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sunderland U21).",
          "Decision strength: 5.6/10",
          "Reliability below 65"
        ],
        "reliability_score": 61,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "lean",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": -0.1833,
          "consensus_ev_display": "-18.3%",
          "consensus_odds": 1.87,
          "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
          "disagreement_level": "moderate",
          "implied_prob": 0.49,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.3846,
          "raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.53475935828877,
          "raw_signal_ev": -0.2808,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": false,
          "calibration_status": "warning",
          "deviation_pct": 1.5,
          "reasons": [
            "Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
          ],
          "recommended_action": "monitor",
          "strength_delta": -1.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "low",
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "separation_score": -10,
            "strength_delta": -1.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.14
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
          "draw_prob": 0.2959,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.14
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 1.87,
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0532,
          "ev": -0.1833,
          "implied_prob": 0.49,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.3846,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Sunderland U21"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.0853,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 3.06,
            "edge": 0.0137,
            "market_prob": 0.2949,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.456,
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.0853,
              "best_odd": 3.06,
              "edge": 0.0137,
              "ev": -0.0555,
              "implied_prob": 0.2949,
              "model_prob": 0.456,
              "p_final": 0.3087
            },
            "p_final": 0.3087,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0555,
            "value_side": "no",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.1877,
              "best_odd": 1.28,
              "edge": -0.0302,
              "ev": -0.1362,
              "implied_prob": 0.7051,
              "model_prob": 0.544,
              "p_final": 0.6748
            }
          },
          "edge": 0.1602,
          "ev": 0.5048,
          "implied_prob": 0.2958,
          "model_prob": 0.456,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.08,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 3.25,
            "edge": 0.0188,
            "market_prob": 0.2826,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "model_prob": 0.518,
            "n_bookmakers": 4,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.1601,
              "best_odd": 1.28,
              "edge": -0.0377,
              "ev": -0.1299,
              "implied_prob": 0.7174,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.6797
            },
            "p_final": 0.3014,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0205,
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.08,
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          "value_side": "under"
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      "match_regime": {
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      "secondary_picks": [
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        "away": "Norwich City U21",
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        "speculative_primary": false
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        "consensus_ev": -0.1833,
        "consensus_ev_display": "-18.3%",
        "consensus_odds": 1.87,
        "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
        "disagreement_level": "moderate",
        "implied_prob": 0.49,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
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        "raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.53475935828877,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.2808,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%"
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  "fixture_id": 1621035,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T18:02:07.482659+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}