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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Burnley U21 Burnley U21 ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.14
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Burnley U21 win · Burnley U21 4–1 Derby County U21
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"away_win_prob": 0.347,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.81,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.3564,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Derby County U21 and +2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Derby County U21"
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Burnley U21",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0726,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4286,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.7,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 35.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.14
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.14,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Burnley U21 Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.33,
"market_odds": 2.14,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 9.0,
"prob_edge": -11.1,
"value_pct": -23.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 73.0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.29,
"home_expected": 1.31,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Burnley U21 or Draw",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Burnley U21 or Derby County U21",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Derby County U21",
"prob": 64.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Burnley U21 or Derby County U21",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.7,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Burnley U21"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+2.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 5.5,
"implied_prob": 32.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Derby County U21 Win",
"model_prob": 34.7,
"odds": 3.04
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Derby County U21",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 30.17,
"draw": 26.97,
"home": 42.86
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 18:01:47",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 17:33:14",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Burnley U21",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.86,
"gap_pp": -7.26,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.97,
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.17,
"gap_pp": 4.56,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.86,
"gap_pp": -17.66,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.14,
"gap_pp": 17.66,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.14,
"early": 2.14,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.86,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.86,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.4,
"early": 3.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.97,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.04,
"early": 3.04,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.17,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.41,
"early": 1.41,
"implied_closing_pct": 65.86,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 65.86,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.72,
"early": 2.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.14,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.7,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 2.1,
"ev": 0.197,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.5,
"market_prob": 0.1053,
"market_prob_pct": 10.5,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1304,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"edge": 0.024,
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"market_prob": 0.3342,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1792,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.033,
"ev": -0.1393,
"implied_prob": 0.6658,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6329
},
"p_final": 0.3581,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4038,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0295,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1304,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.3342,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3581
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3204,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -32.0,
"text": "-32.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.554,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 55.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.554,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10648.6,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1438,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.815,
"edge": 0.0193,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.3209,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1438,
"best_odd": 2.815,
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.3209,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3402
},
"p_final": 0.3402,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2808,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0425,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.132,
"implied_prob": 0.6791,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6526
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4105,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 41.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.9,
"text": "-25.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.4105,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10369.45,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1452,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.5,
"text": "-14.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0441,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.4,
"text": "-4.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Burnley U21",
"sort_key": 1788.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -4.7%",
"alert_team": "Burnley U21",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.22,
"hero_label": "Burnley U21",
"market_prob_pct": 42.9,
"market_team": "Burnley U21",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Burnley U21",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Burnley U21)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Burnley U21)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Burnley U21 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Burnley U21 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Burnley U21",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Burnley U21).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1452,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.22,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.22,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -4.7%",
"steam_team": "Burnley U21",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Burnley U21).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Burnley U21)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Burnley U21)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Burnley U21 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Burnley U21 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Burnley U21",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Burnley U21).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1452,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Burnley U21 1.31 xG vs Derby County U21 1.29 \u2192 Burnley U21 35.6%",
"Market: Burnley U21 ~42.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Burnley U21 \u2193 -4.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Burnley U21 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.22,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Burnley U21",
"market_prob": 42.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.68,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.53,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Derby County U21",
"market_prob": 30.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.23,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.43,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.23,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.57,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.81,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 68.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.81,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 31.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Burnley U21",
"market_prob_pct": 42.86,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Burnley U21"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Burnley U21\u0027s win probability at 42.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.22,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Burnley U21",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.3,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Burnley U21 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Burnley U21 1.31 xG vs Derby County U21 1.29 \u2192 Burnley U21 35.6%",
"Market: Burnley U21 ~42.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Burnley U21 \u2193 -4.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Burnley U21 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.22,
"hero_label": "Burnley U21",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Burnley U21 odds shortened \u2193 -4.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Burnley U21. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Burnley U21.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Burnley U21. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Burnley U21."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Burnley U21 above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Burnley U21 (\u2193 -4.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/7) supports the current market view on Burnley U21."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.22,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Burnley U21",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Burnley U21 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.22,
"edge_pp": -7.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Burnley U21",
"market_prob_pct": 42.86,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.68,
"edge_pp": 2.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.97,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.53,
"edge_pp": 4.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Derby County U21",
"market_prob_pct": 30.17,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Burnley U21.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Burnley U21 (42.9%).",
"Burnley U21 has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.7%, 5/7).",
"Burnley U21 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.73,
"closing_odds": 2.14,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.73,
"entry_odds": 2.14,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.8
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 22h 55m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Burnley U21 (4.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.15",
"2.10",
"2.05"
],
"display": "2.25 \u2192 1.95 \u2192 2.05",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 22h 55m",
"pick_team": "Burnley U21",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.05"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.14,
2.05
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,1.8 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.05"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 5/7 sportsbooks on Burnley U21",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Burnley U21",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.05,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.7%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Burnley U21",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.7%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Burnley U21",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_team_name": "Burnley U21",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "derby-county-u21",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Derby County U21",
"away_team_id": 19745,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/19745.webp",
"away_team_name": "Derby County U21",
"away_team_public_id": "0bDUo7pimGdviI",
"away_team_slug": "derby-county-u21",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1621031,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Burnley U21",
"home_team_id": 20081,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/20081.webp",
"home_team_name": "Burnley U21",
"home_team_public_id": "0CTDACkRjo3ZO0",
"home_team_slug": "burnley-u21",
"ht.home_team_slug": "burnley-u21",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Premier League 2 Division One",
"league_id": 702,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/702.webp",
"league_name": "Premier League 2 Division One",
"league_public_id": "1O4UNf5bqWwkPw",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 18:00:00",
"public_id": "00cmy4pKXqL3g5",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Leyland",
"venue_name": "Lancashire County Ground"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2795,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0441,
"implied_prob": 0.3017,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3017,
"draw": 0.2697,
"home": 0.4286
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3144
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2878,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0564,
"implied_prob": 0.2697,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3017,
"draw": 0.2697,
"home": 0.4286
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2775
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.401,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0291,
"ev": -0.1452,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3017,
"draw": 0.2697,
"home": 0.4286
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3994
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": 0.0557,
"implied_prob": 0.3289,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0027,
"ev": 0.0091,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": -0.1114,
"ev": -0.2383,
"implied_prob": 0.4673,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1438,
"alpha_yes": 0.1977,
"best_no_odd": 3.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1381,
"edge_yes": -0.1381,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4105,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0425,
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.132,
"implied_no": 0.3169,
"implied_yes": 0.6831,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1438,
"best_odd": 2.815,
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.3209,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3402
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.132,
"implied_prob": 0.6791,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6526
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3402,
"p_final_yes": 0.6526,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1792,
"alpha_under": 0.1304,
"best_over_odd": 1.41,
"best_under_odd": 3.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.71,
"edge_over": -0.1923,
"edge_under": 0.1923,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3204,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1393,
"ev_under": 0.554,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0295,
"implied_over": 0.6743,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6658,
"implied_under": 0.3257,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3342,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1792,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.033,
"ev": -0.1393,
"implied_prob": 0.6658,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6329
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1304,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.3342,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3581
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6329,
"p_final_under": 0.3581,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.554,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Burnley U21)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Burnley U21 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Burnley U21 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Burnley U21",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Burnley U21).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1452,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0291,
"ev": -0.1452,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Burnley U21"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1438,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.815,
"edge": 0.0193,
"market_prob": 0.3209,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1438,
"best_odd": 2.815,
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.3209,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3402
},
"p_final": 0.3402,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0425,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.132,
"implied_prob": 0.6791,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6526
}
},
"edge": 0.1381,
"ev": 0.4105,
"implied_prob": 0.3169,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1304,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"edge": 0.024,
"market_prob": 0.3342,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1792,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.033,
"ev": -0.1393,
"implied_prob": 0.6658,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6329
},
"p_final": 0.3581,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0295,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1304,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.3342,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3581
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1923,
"ev": 0.554,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1621031,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.554,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4105,
"implied_prob": 0.3169,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4105,
"implied_prob": 0.3169,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Derby County U21",
"home": "Burnley U21"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.20088,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.554,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1452,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1621031,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T18:01:49.251518+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Burnley U21 & Derby County U21!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Premier League 2 Division One — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Manchester United U21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Chelsea U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Sunderland U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Liverpool U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Fulham U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Leeds United U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Reading U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Norwich City U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Brentford U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Everton U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 15 | West Ham United U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 17 | Stoke City U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 19 | Brighton U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 20 | Derby County U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 21 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 22 | Burnley U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 23 | Arsenal U21 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 24 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 25 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 26 | Birmingham City U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 27 | Middlesbrough U21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 28 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 29 | Leicester City U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 30 | Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 | Wolverhampton Wanderers U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 4 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | Chelsea U21 | 4 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Sunderland U21 | 4 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Manchester United U21 | 3 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 9 |
| 5 | Fulham U21 | 4 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Leeds United U21 | 4 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | Brentford U21 | 4 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 | Derby County U21 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Liverpool U21 | 4 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 11 | Burnley U21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 14 | Stoke City U21 | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 15 | Reading U21 | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 16 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 18 | Aston Villa U21 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 19 | Brighton U21 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | Middlesbrough U21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 |
| 21 | Norwich City U21 | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 22 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 23 | West Ham United U21 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 24 | Birmingham City U21 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2 |
| 25 | Everton U21 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 26 | Arsenal U21 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 27 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 28 | Crystal Palace U21 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 29 | Leicester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
| 30 | Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
| 31 | Wolverhampton Wanderers U21 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 |
