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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 La Fiorita Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.6
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Fiorentino 1–1 La Fiorita
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1362ad7ac50a021440d48078346b5fe602c4406543228a6b609f4a72e329687f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.46,
"away_win_prob": 0.4286,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.462,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.292,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.33,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.42,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.58,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.14,
"home_win_prob": 0.2793,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or La Fiorita and -2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "La Fiorita"
},
"away_xg": 1.46,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "La Fiorita",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1219,
"edge_gap": 0.1367,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5507,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 42.9,
"draw": 29.2,
"home": 27.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.6
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.6,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "La Fiorita Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.82,
"market_odds": 1.6,
"model_odds": 2.33,
"overround": 13.5,
"prob_edge": -19.6,
"value_pct": -31.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 76.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 68.0,
"no_prob": 46.2,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 53.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 53.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.46,
"home_expected": 1.14,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Fiorentino or Draw",
"prob": 57.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Fiorentino or La Fiorita",
"prob": 70.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or La Fiorita",
"prob": 72.1
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or La Fiorita",
"pick_prob": 72.1
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 42.9,
"draw_pct": 29.2,
"home_pct": 27.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "La Fiorita"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-2.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 25.8,
"implied_prob": 22.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Fiorentino Win",
"model_prob": 27.9,
"odds": 4.51
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "La Fiorita",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 55.07,
"draw": 25.39,
"home": 19.54
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 19:14:11",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 18:47:29",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Fiorentino",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.54,
"gap_pp": 8.37,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 27.91
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.39,
"gap_pp": 3.82,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.21
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.07,
"gap_pp": -12.19,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 42.88
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.34,
"gap_pp": 1.86,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.66,
"gap_pp": -1.86,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 4.51,
"early": 4.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 19.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 19.54,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.47,
"early": 3.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.39,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.39,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.6,
"early": 1.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.07,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.07,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.98,
"early": 1.98,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.34,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.34,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.71,
"early": 1.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.66,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.66,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.1,
"ev": -0.008,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.14,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0138,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.4694,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.538,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.222,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": -0.0152,
"ev": -0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.5306,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.5154
},
"p_final": 0.4832,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0491,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0577,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0577,
"implied_prob": 0.4694,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.4832
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1869,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.7,
"text": "-18.7%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.076,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.6,
"text": "+7.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.076,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 46.2,
"sort_key": 10218.4,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 53.8
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2411,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0041,
"edge_pp": -0.4,
"market_prob": 0.5351,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2192,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0038,
"ev": -0.0721,
"implied_prob": 0.4649,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4686
},
"p_final": 0.531,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.109,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0867,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2411,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0041,
"ev": -0.0867,
"implied_prob": 0.5351,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.531
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.036,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.6,
"text": "-3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0054,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.5,
"text": "-0.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0054,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 1798.65,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita.",
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2145,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.4,
"text": "-21.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5507,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0529,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.3,
"text": "-5.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3139,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "La Fiorita",
"sort_key": 1786.775,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -9.8%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.21,
"hero_label": "La Fiorita",
"market_prob_pct": 55.1,
"market_team": "La Fiorita",
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"model_team": "La Fiorita",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.076,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2586,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates La Fiorita at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies La Fiorita as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "La Fiorita",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side La Fiorita \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.34 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1619842 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.34 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2145,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5507,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3139,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.375,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 54,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.21,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.21,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.46,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.14,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.46,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.14 \u00b7 Away xG 1.46 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +8%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -9.8%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.076,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2586,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates La Fiorita at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies La Fiorita as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "La Fiorita",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side La Fiorita \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.34 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1619842 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.34 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2145,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5507,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3139,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Fiorentino 1.14 xG vs La Fiorita 1.46 \u2192 La Fiorita 42.9%",
"Market: La Fiorita ~55.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -9.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours La Fiorita, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 8.39,
"fair_prob": 27.93,
"label": "Fiorentino",
"market_prob": 19.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.81,
"fair_prob": 29.2,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob": 42.86,
"label": "La Fiorita",
"market_prob": 55.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.2,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.2,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.98,
"fair_prob": 53.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.98,
"fair_prob": 46.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.86,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "La Fiorita",
"market_prob_pct": 55.07,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates La Fiorita\u0027s win probability at 55.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 12.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.21,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "La Fiorita",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 55.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.2,
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 54,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Fiorentino 1.14 xG vs La Fiorita 1.46 \u2192 La Fiorita 42.9%",
"Market: La Fiorita ~55.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -9.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours La Fiorita, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.21,
"hero_label": "La Fiorita",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -9.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 9.8%. Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about La Fiorita than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 9.8%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about La Fiorita than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 9.8%. Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 9.8%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors La Fiorita more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 9.8%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.21,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.7 pp (at 42.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.7,
"max_prob_pct": 42.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "La Fiorita",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices La Fiorita higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 8.39,
"edge_pp": 8.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.93,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Fiorentino",
"market_prob_pct": 19.54,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.81,
"edge_pp": 3.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.39,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.21,
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.86,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "La Fiorita",
"market_prob_pct": 55.07,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 9.8%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers La Fiorita (55.1%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -9.8%, 3/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 La Fiorita, Market \u2192 La Fiorita, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 62.5,
"closing_odds": 1.6,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 62.5,
"entry_odds": 1.6,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.8
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Draw (9.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.10",
"3.79",
"3.47"
],
"display": "4.20 \u2192 3.30 \u2192 3.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 44m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.1,
3.47,
3.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,11.4",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.47"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.8%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.8%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "la-fiorita",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "La Fiorita",
"away_team_id": 2249,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2249.webp",
"away_team_name": "La Fiorita",
"away_team_public_id": "1LYDsQxCzZ5nY9",
"away_team_slug": "la-fiorita",
"country_code": "SM",
"country_display_name": "San-Marino",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/sm.svg",
"country_id": 134,
"country_name": "San-Marino",
"fixture_id": 1619842,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "San-Marino",
"home_team_display_name": "Fiorentino",
"home_team_id": 5301,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5301.webp",
"home_team_name": "Fiorentino",
"home_team_public_id": "3Bk2ww8o35JwKY",
"home_team_slug": "fiorentino",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fiorentino",
"league_country": "San-Marino",
"league_country_display": "San-Marino",
"league_display_name": "Campionato San Marino",
"league_id": 404,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/404.webp",
"league_name": "Campionato San Marino",
"league_public_id": "0tbhW3KSx0XwrH",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 19:15:00",
"public_id": "22vtEfuVNRuxL3",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Fiorentino",
"venue_name": "Stadio di Fiorentino"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4903,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0598,
"ev": -0.2145,
"implied_prob": 0.5507,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5507,
"draw": 0.2539,
"home": 0.1954
},
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"p_final": 0.4909
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2828,
"best_odd": 3.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0814,
"implied_prob": 0.2539,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5507,
"draw": 0.2539,
"home": 0.1954
},
"model_prob": 0.2921,
"p_final": 0.2647
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1749,
"best_odd": 4.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0529,
"implied_prob": 0.1954,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5507,
"draw": 0.2539,
"home": 0.1954
},
"model_prob": 0.2791,
"p_final": 0.21
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.1962,
"ev": -0.3139,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.4288
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.47,
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": 0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.2882,
"model_prob": 0.2921
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.51,
"edge": 0.0573,
"ev": 0.2586,
"implied_prob": 0.2217,
"model_prob": 0.2791
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.222,
"alpha_yes": 0.2018,
"best_no_odd": 1.76,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0698,
"edge_yes": 0.0698,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1869,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.111,
"ev_yes": 0.076,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0577,
"implied_no": 0.5318,
"implied_yes": 0.4682,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.222,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": -0.0152,
"ev": -0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.5306,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.5154
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0577,
"implied_prob": 0.4694,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.4832
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5154,
"p_final_yes": 0.4832,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2192,
"alpha_under": 0.2411,
"best_over_odd": 2.0,
"best_under_odd": 1.92,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.98,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.72,
"edge_over": -0.002,
"edge_under": 0.002,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.036,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0721,
"ev_under": -0.0054,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0867,
"implied_over": 0.484,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4649,
"implied_under": 0.516,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5351,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2192,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0038,
"ev": -0.0721,
"implied_prob": 0.4649,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4686
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2411,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0041,
"ev": -0.0867,
"implied_prob": 0.5351,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.531
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4686,
"p_final_under": 0.531,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.076,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2586,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.076,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.076,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2586,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates La Fiorita at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies La Fiorita as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "La Fiorita",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side La Fiorita \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.34 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1619842 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.34 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours La Fiorita.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2145,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5507,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3139,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
"draw_prob": 0.2921,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4288,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.32
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0598,
"ev": -0.2145,
"implied_prob": 0.5507,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "La Fiorita"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0138,
"market_prob": 0.4694,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.538,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.222,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": -0.0152,
"ev": -0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.5306,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.5154
},
"p_final": 0.4832,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0577,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0577,
"implied_prob": 0.4694,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.4832
}
},
"edge": 0.0698,
"ev": 0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.4682,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2411,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0041,
"market_prob": 0.5351,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2192,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0038,
"ev": -0.0721,
"implied_prob": 0.4649,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4686
},
"p_final": 0.531,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0867,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2411,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0041,
"ev": -0.0867,
"implied_prob": 0.5351,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.531
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.002,
"ev": -0.0054,
"implied_prob": 0.516,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1619842,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.076,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4288,
"draw": 0.2921,
"home": 0.2791
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "La Fiorita",
"home": "Fiorentino"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.040888,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.4682,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.538,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2145,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5507,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3139,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1619842,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T19:14:13.096162+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Fiorentino & La Fiorita!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Campionato San Marino — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Virtus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Domagnano | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | La Fiorita | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Libertas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Fiorentino | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Cailungo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Murata | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | San Giovanni | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tre Fiori | 4 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 9 |
| 2 | Folgore | 4 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 | Tre Penne | 4 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 4 | Cosmos | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Domagnano | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 | Pennarossa | 4 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 3 |
| 7 | Virtus | 4 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 | Juvenes / Dogana | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | La Fiorita | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Libertas | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Fiorentino | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Cailungo | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Murata | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | San Giovanni | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 2 |
