Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Wigan Athletic U21 Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.71
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Wigan Athletic U21 2–2 Coventry City U21
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "ec7723cecaa17cc4d531bd089af2263fd4a3e4ba293727c9330656881ad125ae",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.19,
"away_win_prob": 0.3014,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.458,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2944,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.32,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.47,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.41,
"home_win_prob": 0.4042,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Wigan Athletic U21 and +3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Wigan Athletic U21"
},
"away_xg": 1.19,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0042,
"edge_gap": 0.1036,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.409,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 30.1,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 40.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.24
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.24,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Wigan Athletic U21 Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.45,
"market_odds": 2.24,
"model_odds": 2.47,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -4.2,
"value_pct": -9.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 69.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 75.6,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.19,
"home_expected": 1.41,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Wigan Athletic U21 or Draw",
"prob": 69.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Wigan Athletic U21 or Coventry City U21",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Coventry City U21",
"prob": 59.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Wigan Athletic U21 or Coventry City U21",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.1,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 40.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Wigan Athletic U21"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 38.5,
"implied_prob": 21.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.4,
"odds": 4.71
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Coventry City U21",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 39.66,
"draw": 19.45,
"home": 40.9
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-22 11:59:10",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-22 11:29:11",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.9,
"gap_pp": -0.42,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 40.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.45,
"gap_pp": 9.96,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.41
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.66,
"gap_pp": -9.54,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 30.12
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.24,
"early": 2.24,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.9,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.9,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.71,
"early": 4.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 19.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 19.45,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.31,
"early": 2.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.66,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.66,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 4.2,
"ev": 0.5,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 12.0,
"market_prob": 0.0833,
"market_prob_pct": 8.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.41,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.315,
"edge": 0.0246,
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"market_prob": 0.2104,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1333,
"best_odd": 1.15,
"edge": -0.041,
"ev": -0.1391,
"implied_prob": 0.7896,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7486
},
"p_final": 0.235,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 30.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2352,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0142,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.315,
"edge": 0.0246,
"ev": 0.0142,
"implied_prob": 0.2104,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.235
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4216,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -42.2,
"text": "-42.2%"
},
"ev_under": 1.331,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 133.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 1.331,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 11347.9,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.97,
"edge": 0.0182,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.2306,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.97,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.2306,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.2488
},
"p_final": 0.2488,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8183,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0122,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1631,
"best_odd": 1.19,
"edge": -0.0371,
"ev": -0.1286,
"implied_prob": 0.7694,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.7323
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.8686,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 86.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.3225,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -32.2,
"text": "-32.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.8686,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"sort_key": 10781.74,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21.",
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0881,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.8,
"text": "-8.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.409,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0042,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.4,
"text": "-0.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"sort_key": 2199.664,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"alert_team": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.99,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 40.9,
"market_team": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "disagrees",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Market disagrees with model",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wigan Athletic U21 at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wigan Athletic U21 as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.3% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.3% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0881,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.409,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4464285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.99,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.99,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.19,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.41,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.41 \u00b7 Away xG 1.19 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"steam_team": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wigan Athletic U21 at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wigan Athletic U21 as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.3% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.3% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0881,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.409,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4464285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Wigan Athletic U21 1.41 xG vs Coventry City U21 1.19 \u2192 Wigan Athletic U21 40.4%",
"Market: Wigan Athletic U21 ~40.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Wigan Athletic U21 odds \u2191 +15.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Wigan Athletic U21, but the market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.48,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"market_prob": 40.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.99,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 19.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.52,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Coventry City U21",
"market_prob": 39.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -30.78,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 78.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 30.78,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 21.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -22.37,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 76.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 22.37,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 23.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.45,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Wigan Athletic U21"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 19.4%, a difference of 10.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.99,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.5,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Wigan Athletic U21 1.41 xG vs Coventry City U21 1.19 \u2192 Wigan Athletic U21 40.4%",
"Market: Wigan Athletic U21 ~40.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Wigan Athletic U21 odds \u2191 +15.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Wigan Athletic U21, but the market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.99,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Wigan Athletic U21 odds lengthened \u2191 +15.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Wigan Athletic U21 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Drift away from Wigan Athletic U21 \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, Wigan Athletic U21 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Wigan Athletic U21 \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Wigan Athletic U21 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Wigan Athletic U21."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.99,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.0,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 10.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.48,
"edge_pp": -0.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"market_prob_pct": 40.9,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.99,
"edge_pp": 9.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.45,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.52,
"edge_pp": -9.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Coventry City U21",
"market_prob_pct": 39.66,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Wigan Athletic U21 \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Wigan Athletic U21 (40.9%).",
"However, Wigan Athletic U21 has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +15.2%, 6/6) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Wigan Athletic U21, Market \u2192 Wigan Athletic U21, while Wigan Athletic U21 odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 21.23,
"closing_odds": 4.71,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 21.23,
"entry_odds": 4.71,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 26m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/6 books lengthened Wigan Athletic U21 together (15.2% drift, score 77) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.24",
"2.08",
"1.91"
],
"display": "2.25 \u2192 1.91 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 26m",
"pick_team": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.91,
2.24,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.24"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.91,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Wigan Athletic U21 odds \u2191 +15.2% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Wigan Athletic U21 odds \u2191 +15.2% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"summary": "Market moved away from Wigan Athletic U21 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"pick_team": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_team_name": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "coventry-city-u21",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Coventry City U21",
"away_team_id": 20092,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20092.webp",
"away_team_name": "Coventry City U21",
"away_team_public_id": "497ZBQd0cNvNat",
"away_team_slug": "coventry-city-u21",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1619147,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"home_team_id": 20097,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/20097.webp",
"home_team_name": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"home_team_public_id": "5wyy6QimaZXlRq",
"home_team_slug": "wigan-athletic-u21",
"ht.home_team_slug": "wigan-athletic-u21",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n Chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p",
"league_id": 703,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/703.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n Chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p",
"league_public_id": "3ndHGQfm7HNJhM",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 12:00:00",
"public_id": "5xTAWk6bV59ggv",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3856,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0368,
"ev": -0.1689,
"implied_prob": 0.3966,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3966,
"draw": 0.1945,
"home": 0.409
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.3598
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1701,
"best_odd": 4.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0042,
"implied_prob": 0.1945,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3966,
"draw": 0.1945,
"home": 0.409
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2114
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4472,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0019,
"ev": -0.0881,
"implied_prob": 0.409,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3966,
"draw": 0.1945,
"home": 0.409
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.4071
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": -0.1318,
"ev": -0.3043,
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"model_prob": 0.3012
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.71,
"edge": 0.0818,
"ev": 0.385,
"implied_prob": 0.2123,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": -0.0416,
"ev": -0.0933,
"implied_prob": 0.4464,
"model_prob": 0.4048
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.1631,
"best_no_odd": 4.08,
"best_yes_odd": 1.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.2237,
"edge_yes": -0.2237,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.8686,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0122,
"ev_yes": -0.3225,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1286,
"implied_no": 0.2343,
"implied_yes": 0.7657,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.97,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.2306,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.2488
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1631,
"best_odd": 1.19,
"edge": -0.0371,
"ev": -0.1286,
"implied_prob": 0.7694,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.7323
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.2488,
"p_final_yes": 0.7323,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1333,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.2,
"best_under_odd": 4.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.15,
"consensus_under_odd": 4.315,
"edge_over": -0.3078,
"edge_under": 0.3078,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4216,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1391,
"ev_under": 1.331,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0142,
"implied_over": 0.7898,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7896,
"implied_under": 0.2102,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2104,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1333,
"best_odd": 1.15,
"edge": -0.041,
"ev": -0.1391,
"implied_prob": 0.7896,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7486
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.315,
"edge": 0.0246,
"ev": 0.0142,
"implied_prob": 0.2104,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.235
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7486,
"p_final_under": 0.235,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.331,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.331,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.331,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013309999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wigan Athletic U21 at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wigan Athletic U21 as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wigan Athletic U21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.3% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.3% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Wigan Athletic U21, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic U21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0881,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.409,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4464285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0019,
"ev": -0.0881,
"implied_prob": 0.409,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Wigan Athletic U21"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.97,
"edge": 0.0182,
"market_prob": 0.2306,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.97,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.2306,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.2488
},
"p_final": 0.2488,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0122,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1631,
"best_odd": 1.19,
"edge": -0.0371,
"ev": -0.1286,
"implied_prob": 0.7694,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.7323
}
},
"edge": 0.2237,
"ev": 0.8686,
"implied_prob": 0.2343,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.315,
"edge": 0.0246,
"market_prob": 0.2104,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1333,
"best_odd": 1.15,
"edge": -0.041,
"ev": -0.1391,
"implied_prob": 0.7896,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7486
},
"p_final": 0.235,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0142,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.315,
"edge": 0.0246,
"ev": 0.0142,
"implied_prob": 0.2104,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.235
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.3078,
"ev": 1.331,
"implied_prob": 0.2102,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1619147,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.331,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3012,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.4048
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.8686,
"implied_prob": 0.2343,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.8686,
"implied_prob": 0.2343,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Coventry City U21",
"home": "Wigan Athletic U21"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.482621,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.331,
"implied_prob": 0.2102,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0881,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.409,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4464285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1619147,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T11:59:12.010999+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Wigan Athletic U21 & Coventry City U21!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Phát triển Chuyên nghiệp — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Reserves | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Bristol City U21 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Swansea City U21 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Cardiff City U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Sheffield United U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Barnsley U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Peterborough United U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Colchester United U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Hull City U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Reserves | 5 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 15 |
| 2 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 6 |
| 3 | Cardiff City U21 | 5 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 8 |
| 4 | Bristol City U21 | 5 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 | Colchester United U21 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 6 |
| 6 | Swansea City U21 | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Barnsley U21 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 4 |
| 9 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Coventry City U21 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 | Peterborough United U21 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 14 | Sheffield United U21 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Hull City U21 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
