Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Stade Malien Bamako Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.77
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo 0–0 Stade Malien Bamako
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "43e4e5521607429fba78ed3d99e93d61b2f141274c9c22394dfaeb9c39014bc4",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"away_win_prob": 0.3946,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.53,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.22,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"home_win_prob": 0.3103,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.39,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Stade Malien Bamako",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0469,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4419,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 39.5,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 31.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.0
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.0,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Stade Malien Bamako Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.26,
"market_odds": 2.0,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 13.2,
"prob_edge": -10.5,
"value_pct": -20.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 75.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 70.2,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.39,
"home_expected": 1.21,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo or Draw",
"prob": 60.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo or Stade Malien Bamako",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Stade Malien Bamako",
"prob": 69.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo or Stade Malien Bamako",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.5,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 31.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Stade Malien Bamako"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 16.9,
"implied_prob": 26.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo Win",
"model_prob": 31.0,
"odds": 3.77
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Stade Malien Bamako",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 44.19,
"draw": 32.37,
"home": 23.44
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 15:02:15",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 14:33:03",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.44,
"gap_pp": 7.59,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.37,
"gap_pp": -2.9,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.19,
"gap_pp": -4.69,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.66,
"gap_pp": 13.54,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.34,
"gap_pp": -13.54,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.77,
"early": 3.77,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.44,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.73,
"early": 2.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.37,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.37,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.0,
"early": 2.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.19,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.62,
"early": 2.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.66,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.66,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.39,
"early": 1.39,
"implied_closing_pct": 65.34,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 65.34,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.21,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.215,
"edge": 0.0187,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.414,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1996,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1232,
"implied_prob": 0.586,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5602
},
"p_final": 0.4327,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2027,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0415,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"best_odd": 2.215,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.414,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4327
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2779,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.8,
"text": "-27.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2923,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 29.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2923,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10413.07,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1479,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.525,
"edge": 0.0176,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.3632,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1479,
"best_odd": 2.525,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0386,
"implied_prob": 0.3632,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3808
},
"p_final": 0.3808,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.217,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0386,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2034,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0242,
"ev": -0.1178,
"implied_prob": 0.6368,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6127
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2436,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 24.4,
"text": "+24.4%"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2436,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10219.24,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1555,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.6,
"text": "-15.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0402,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2102,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Stade Malien Bamako",
"sort_key": 1789.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.59,
"hero_label": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo",
"market_prob_pct": 44.2,
"market_team": "Stade Malien Bamako",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Stade Malien Bamako",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade Malien Bamako)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade Malien Bamako)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2923,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2923,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stade Malien Bamako at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stade Malien Bamako as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stade Malien Bamako",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade Malien Bamako).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1555,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2102,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.59,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.59,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade Malien Bamako).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade Malien Bamako)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade Malien Bamako)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2923,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2923,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stade Malien Bamako at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stade Malien Bamako as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stade Malien Bamako",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade Malien Bamako).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1555,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2102,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo 1.21 xG vs Stade Malien Bamako 1.39 \u2192 Stade Malien Bamako 39.5%",
"Market: Stade Malien Bamako ~44.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Stade Malien Bamako with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.59,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo",
"market_prob": 23.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.86,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.73,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Stade Malien Bamako",
"market_prob": 44.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.76,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.76,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.33,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.33,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo",
"market_prob_pct": 23.44,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo\u0027s win probability at 31.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.4%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.59,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Stade Malien Bamako",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.7,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Stade Malien Bamako \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo 1.21 xG vs Stade Malien Bamako 1.39 \u2192 Stade Malien Bamako 39.5%",
"Market: Stade Malien Bamako ~44.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Stade Malien Bamako with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.59,
"hero_label": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo.",
"note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.59,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.6,
"lead": "The model rates Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.59,
"edge_pp": 7.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo",
"market_prob_pct": 23.44,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.86,
"edge_pp": -2.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.37,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.73,
"edge_pp": -4.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Stade Malien Bamako",
"market_prob_pct": 44.19,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Stade Malien Bamako (44.2%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Stade Malien Bamako, Market \u2192 Stade Malien Bamako, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.53,
"closing_odds": 3.77,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.53,
"entry_odds": 3.77,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/5",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo",
"steam_score": 6,
"steam_team_name": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Stade Malien Bamako",
"away_team_id": 6434,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6434.webp",
"away_team_name": "Stade Malien Bamako",
"away_team_public_id": "1vsTWeBRVACsGr",
"away_team_slug": "stade-malien-bamako",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1619062,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Cameroon",
"home_team_display_name": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo",
"home_team_id": 5400,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5400.webp",
"home_team_name": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo",
"home_team_public_id": "26WaZJHkUyQGcM",
"home_team_slug": "colombe",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i V\u00f4 \u0111\u1ecbch C\u00e1c CLB Ch\u00e2u Phi CAF",
"league_id": 12,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/12.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i V\u00f4 \u0111\u1ecbch C\u00e1c CLB Ch\u00e2u Phi CAF",
"league_public_id": "1SbQZ2r6P0WvW5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 15:00:00",
"public_id": "1I3jCT2fBdXbVN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4183,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1555,
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4419,
"draw": 0.3237,
"home": 0.2344
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.4222
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4304,
"best_odd": 2.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0125,
"ev": -0.1503,
"implied_prob": 0.3237,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4419,
"draw": 0.3237,
"home": 0.2344
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.3112
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2658,
"best_odd": 3.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0402,
"implied_prob": 0.2344,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4419,
"draw": 0.3237,
"home": 0.2344
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.2546
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": -0.1051,
"ev": -0.2101,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.73,
"edge": -0.0716,
"ev": -0.1953,
"implied_prob": 0.3663,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.77,
"edge": 0.0451,
"ev": 0.1699,
"implied_prob": 0.2653,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1996,
"alpha_yes": 0.1452,
"best_no_odd": 1.58,
"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1333,
"edge_yes": 0.1333,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2779,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1232,
"ev_yes": 0.2923,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0415,
"implied_no": 0.5903,
"implied_yes": 0.4097,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1996,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1232,
"implied_prob": 0.586,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5602
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"best_odd": 2.215,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.414,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4327
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5602,
"p_final_yes": 0.4327,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1479,
"alpha_under": 0.2034,
"best_over_odd": 2.58,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.525,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.44,
"edge_over": 0.1176,
"edge_under": -0.1176,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2436,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0386,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1178,
"implied_over": 0.3644,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3632,
"implied_under": 0.6356,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6368,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1479,
"best_odd": 2.525,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0386,
"implied_prob": 0.3632,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3808
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2034,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0242,
"ev": -0.1178,
"implied_prob": 0.6368,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6127
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3808,
"p_final_under": 0.6127,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2923,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2923,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2923,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade Malien Bamako)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2923,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2923,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stade Malien Bamako at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stade Malien Bamako as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stade Malien Bamako",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade Malien Bamako).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1555,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2102,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1555,
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Stade Malien Bamako"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.215,
"edge": 0.0187,
"market_prob": 0.414,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1996,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1232,
"implied_prob": 0.586,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5602
},
"p_final": 0.4327,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0415,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"best_odd": 2.215,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.414,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4327
}
},
"edge": 0.1333,
"ev": 0.2923,
"implied_prob": 0.4097,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1479,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.525,
"edge": 0.0176,
"market_prob": 0.3632,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1479,
"best_odd": 2.525,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0386,
"implied_prob": 0.3632,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3808
},
"p_final": 0.3808,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0386,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2034,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0242,
"ev": -0.1178,
"implied_prob": 0.6368,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6127
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1176,
"ev": 0.2436,
"implied_prob": 0.3644,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1619062,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2923,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3949,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2436,
"implied_prob": 0.3644,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2436,
"implied_prob": 0.3644,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Stade Malien Bamako",
"home": "Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.158719,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2923,
"implied_prob": 0.4097,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1555,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2102,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1619062,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T15:02:16.843549+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Colombe du Dja-et-Lobo & Stade Malien Bamako!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Thế giới. Giải Vô địch Các CLB Châu Phi CAF Dự đoán
