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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Eldense B Hércules II ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.76
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Hércules II win · Hércules II 1–0 Eldense B
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3754,
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"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.66,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"home_win_prob": 0.3285,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Eldense B",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Eldense B"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0476,
"edge_gap": 0.047,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 29.6,
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
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"odd": 2.76
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],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"overround": 10.5,
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"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
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"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 71.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
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"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
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"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "H\u00e9rcules II or Draw",
"prob": 62.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "H\u00e9rcules II or Eldense B",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Eldense B",
"prob": 67.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "H\u00e9rcules II or Eldense B",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Eldense B"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 3.8,
"implied_prob": 36.2,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Eldense B Win",
"model_prob": 37.6,
"odds": 2.76
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Eldense B",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 32.8,
"draw": 30.69,
"home": 36.51
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 15:00:18",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 14:31:35",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "H\u00e9rcules II",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.51,
"gap_pp": -3.64,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.69,
"gap_pp": -1.13,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.8,
"gap_pp": 4.76,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.18,
"gap_pp": 4.02,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.82,
"gap_pp": -4.02,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.48,
"early": 2.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.51,
"kind": "1x2_h"
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{
"closing": 2.95,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
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{
"closing": 2.76,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.8,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.11,
"early": 2.11,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.18,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.67,
"early": 1.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.82,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.3,
"ev": -0.0925,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.26,
"market_prob": 0.1377,
"market_prob_pct": 13.8,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0103,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4328,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.4328,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.443
},
"p_final": 0.443,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.017,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0652,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2292,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.105,
"implied_prob": 0.5672,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5559
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1327,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.3,
"text": "+13.3%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1246,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.5,
"text": "-12.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1327,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10269.43,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0088,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.5034,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.835,
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.1049,
"implied_prob": 0.4966,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4878
},
"p_final": 0.5122,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0135,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0729,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.5034,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5122
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.131,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.1,
"text": "-13.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0081,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.8,
"text": "-0.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0081,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 1797.975,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B.",
"consensus_odds": 2.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0397,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.328,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0397,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0369,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Eldense B",
"sort_key": 1790.075,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.74,
"hero_label": "Eldense B",
"market_prob_pct": 32.8,
"market_team": "H\u00e9rcules II",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Eldense B",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1327,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Eldense B at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Eldense B as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Eldense B",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0397,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.76,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.328,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3623188405797102,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0369,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.74,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.74,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "H\u00e9rcules II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1327,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Eldense B at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Eldense B as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Eldense B",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0397,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.76,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.328,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3623188405797102,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0369,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: H\u00e9rcules II 1.25 xG vs Eldense B 1.35 \u2192 Eldense B 37.5%",
"Market: H\u00e9rcules II ~32.8% implied",
"Market Steam: H\u00e9rcules II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Eldense B with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.66,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "H\u00e9rcules II",
"market_prob": 36.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.08,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.74,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Eldense B",
"market_prob": 32.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.19,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.19,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.85,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.85,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Eldense B",
"market_prob_pct": 32.8,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "H\u00e9rcules II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.74,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Eldense B",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.7,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: H\u00e9rcules II 1.25 xG vs Eldense B 1.35 \u2192 Eldense B 37.5%",
"Market: H\u00e9rcules II ~32.8% implied",
"Market Steam: H\u00e9rcules II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Eldense B with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.74,
"hero_label": "Eldense B",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.74,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Eldense B",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.66,
"edge_pp": -3.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "H\u00e9rcules II",
"market_prob_pct": 36.51,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.08,
"edge_pp": -1.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.69,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.74,
"edge_pp": 4.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Eldense B",
"market_prob_pct": 32.8,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers H\u00e9rcules II (32.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Eldense B, Market \u2192 H\u00e9rcules II, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.23,
"closing_odds": 2.76,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.23,
"entry_odds": 2.76,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "H\u00e9rcules II",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_team_name": "H\u00e9rcules II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": null,
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Eldense B",
"away_team_id": 28103,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Eldense B",
"away_team_public_id": "1QdRxbx9CHRTb8",
"away_team_slug": null,
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1614271,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "H\u00e9rcules II",
"home_team_id": 9693,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9693.webp",
"home_team_name": "H\u00e9rcules II",
"home_team_public_id": "28nGFejkyXXPwo",
"home_team_slug": "hercules-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hercules-ii",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 6",
"league_id": 444,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/444.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 6",
"league_public_id": "59WGPtHQHM7Yir",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 15:00:00",
"public_id": "2GOoZUZBNmCVgW",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4179,
"best_odd": 2.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.328,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.328,
"draw": 0.3069,
"home": 0.3651
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3479
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4424,
"best_odd": 2.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.005,
"ev": -0.1093,
"implied_prob": 0.3069,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.328,
"draw": 0.3069,
"home": 0.3651
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.3019
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4255,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.133,
"implied_prob": 0.3651,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.328,
"draw": 0.3069,
"home": 0.3651
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3496
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.76,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": 0.0368,
"implied_prob": 0.3623,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.95,
"edge": -0.0433,
"ev": -0.1279,
"implied_prob": 0.339,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.48,
"edge": -0.0745,
"ev": -0.1848,
"implied_prob": 0.4032,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.211,
"alpha_yes": 0.211,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.82,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0385,
"edge_yes": 0.0385,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.131,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1049,
"ev_yes": -0.0081,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0729,
"implied_no": 0.4935,
"implied_yes": 0.5065,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.835,
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.1049,
"implied_prob": 0.4966,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4878
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.5034,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5122
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4878,
"p_final_yes": 0.5122,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2084,
"alpha_under": 0.2292,
"best_over_odd": 2.35,
"best_under_odd": 1.69,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.11,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.61,
"edge_over": 0.0519,
"edge_under": -0.0519,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1327,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0652,
"ev_under": -0.1246,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.105,
"implied_over": 0.4301,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4328,
"implied_under": 0.5699,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5672,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.4328,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.443
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2292,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.105,
"implied_prob": 0.5672,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5559
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.443,
"p_final_under": 0.5559,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1327,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1327,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1327,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Eldense B at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Eldense B as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Eldense B",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced H\u00e9rcules II, but the model still strongly favours Eldense B.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0397,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.76,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.328,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3623188405797102,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0369,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.328,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Eldense B"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0088,
"market_prob": 0.5034,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.835,
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.1049,
"implied_prob": 0.4966,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4878
},
"p_final": 0.5122,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0729,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.5034,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5122
}
},
"edge": 0.0385,
"ev": -0.0081,
"implied_prob": 0.5065,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0103,
"market_prob": 0.4328,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.4328,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.443
},
"p_final": 0.443,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0652,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2292,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.105,
"implied_prob": 0.5672,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5559
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0519,
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1614271,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1327,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Eldense B",
"home": "H\u00e9rcules II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.044773,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0397,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.76,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.328,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3623188405797102,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0369,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1614271,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T15:00:22.562577+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Hércules II & Eldense B!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Tercera División RFEF - Nhóm 6 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vall de Uxó | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Villarreal III | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Hércules II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Roda | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 5 | Eldense B | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Torrent | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Levante II | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Crevillente | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Acero | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Ontinyent 1931 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | SC Torrevieja | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Buñol | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Jove Español | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | Saguntino | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Soneja | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Atzeneta | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Utiel | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Torrellano | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Torrent | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Hércules II | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Vall de Uxó | 4 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 4 | Roda | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 5 | Villarreal III | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Crevillente | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Jove Español | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | Levante II | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Eldense B | 5 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Acero | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Ontinyent 1931 | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 12 | Soneja | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Saguntino | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | SC Torrevieja | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Atzeneta | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Buñol | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 | Torrellano | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 |
| 18 | Utiel | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
