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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Europa II Europa II ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.02
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Europa II win · Europa II 1–0 Montañesa
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3194,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.13,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"fair_odds_home": 2.6,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"home_win_prob": 0.3849,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Monta\u00f1esa",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Monta\u00f1esa"
},
"away_xg": 1.23,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Europa II",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.007,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 29.6,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.31
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.31,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.55,
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"overround": 10.5,
"prob_edge": -4.8,
"value_pct": -11.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 70.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 74.6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
"home_expected": 1.37,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
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{
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"home": 1,
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"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Europa II or Draw",
"prob": 68.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Europa II or Monta\u00f1esa",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Monta\u00f1esa",
"prob": 61.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Europa II or Monta\u00f1esa",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Europa II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"edge": -11.2,
"implied_prob": 43.3,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Europa II Win",
"model_prob": 38.5,
"odds": 2.31
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Monta\u00f1esa",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.96,
"draw": 30.88,
"home": 39.17
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 10:01:14",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 09:31:49",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Europa II",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.17,
"gap_pp": -0.7,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.88,
"gap_pp": -1.29,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.96,
"gap_pp": 1.99,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.92,
"gap_pp": 4.28,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.08,
"gap_pp": -4.28,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.31,
"early": 2.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.17,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.93,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.02,
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},
{
"closing": 2.12,
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"implied_closing_pct": 43.92,
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{
"closing": 1.66,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.37,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4409,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4495
},
"p_final": 0.4495,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0026,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0649,
"under": {
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"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
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"p_final": 0.5496
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.0,
"text": "+6.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1401,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.0,
"text": "-14.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0604,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10204.36,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0086,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.5034,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"best_odd": 1.835,
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.1045,
"implied_prob": 0.4966,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.488
},
"p_final": 0.512,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0154,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0733,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0733,
"implied_prob": 0.5034,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.512
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1564,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.6,
"text": "-15.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0099,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.0,
"text": "-1.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0099,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 1797.525,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1025,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.2,
"text": "-10.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3917,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0778,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.8,
"text": "-7.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1116,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Europa II",
"sort_key": 1780.55,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 1.98,
"hero_label": "Monta\u00f1esa",
"market_prob_pct": 39.2,
"market_team": "Europa II",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Europa II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Europa II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Europa II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Europa II at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Europa II as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Europa II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Europa II).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1025,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3917,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4329004329004329,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1116,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 1.98,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 1.98,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Europa II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Europa II).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Europa II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Europa II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Europa II at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Europa II as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Europa II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Europa II).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1025,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3917,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4329004329004329,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1116,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Europa II 1.37 xG vs Monta\u00f1esa 1.23 \u2192 Europa II 38.5%",
"Market: Europa II ~39.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Europa II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Europa II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.68,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Europa II",
"market_prob": 39.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.31,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.98,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Monta\u00f1esa",
"market_prob": 29.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.5,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.7,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.5,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.3,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.13,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.27,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.13,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.73,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 1.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Monta\u00f1esa",
"market_prob_pct": 29.96,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Europa II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.98,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Europa II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.7,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Europa II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Europa II 1.37 xG vs Monta\u00f1esa 1.23 \u2192 Europa II 38.5%",
"Market: Europa II ~39.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Europa II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Europa II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 1.98,
"hero_label": "Monta\u00f1esa",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 1.98,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Monta\u00f1esa",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.68,
"edge_pp": -0.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Europa II",
"market_prob_pct": 39.17,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.31,
"edge_pp": -1.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.88,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.98,
"edge_pp": 1.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Monta\u00f1esa",
"market_prob_pct": 29.96,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Europa II (39.2%).",
"Europa II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 33.11,
"closing_odds": 3.02,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 33.11,
"entry_odds": 3.02,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "Europa II",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "Europa II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "montanesa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Monta\u00f1esa",
"away_team_id": 15345,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15345.webp",
"away_team_name": "Monta\u00f1esa",
"away_team_public_id": "02ZP4p0kOmHrVc",
"away_team_slug": "montanesa",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1613954,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Europa II",
"home_team_id": 24575,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24575.webp",
"home_team_name": "Europa II",
"home_team_public_id": "5JWRPXEfWBJVkh",
"home_team_slug": "europa-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "europa-ii",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 5",
"league_id": 443,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/443.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 5",
"league_public_id": "1BxpeEAqeoIndL",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 10:00:00",
"public_id": "0vPPDm4ZrLmPzI",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.291,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0058,
"ev": -0.0778,
"implied_prob": 0.2996,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2996,
"draw": 0.3088,
"home": 0.3917
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3054
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4413,
"best_odd": 2.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0057,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.3088,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2996,
"draw": 0.3088,
"home": 0.3917
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3031
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4453,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0031,
"ev": -0.1025,
"implied_prob": 0.3917,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2996,
"draw": 0.3088,
"home": 0.3917
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.3885
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.02,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.0351,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.93,
"edge": -0.0454,
"ev": -0.1331,
"implied_prob": 0.3413,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": -0.0483,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2113,
"alpha_yes": 0.2113,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.82,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0413,
"edge_yes": 0.0413,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1564,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1045,
"ev_yes": -0.0099,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0733,
"implied_no": 0.4973,
"implied_yes": 0.5027,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"best_odd": 1.835,
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.1045,
"implied_prob": 0.4966,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.488
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0733,
"implied_prob": 0.5034,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.512
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.488,
"p_final_yes": 0.512,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2111,
"alpha_under": 0.2322,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.66,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.08,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.64,
"edge_over": 0.045,
"edge_under": -0.045,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0649,
"ev_under": -0.1401,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0987,
"implied_over": 0.437,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4409,
"implied_under": 0.563,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5591,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4495
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5496
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4495,
"p_final_under": 0.5496,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Europa II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Europa II at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Europa II as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Europa II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Europa II).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1025,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3917,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4329004329004329,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1116,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0031,
"ev": -0.1025,
"implied_prob": 0.3917,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Europa II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0086,
"market_prob": 0.5034,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"best_odd": 1.835,
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.1045,
"implied_prob": 0.4966,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.488
},
"p_final": 0.512,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0733,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0733,
"implied_prob": 0.5034,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.512
}
},
"edge": 0.0413,
"ev": -0.0099,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"market_prob": 0.4409,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4495
},
"p_final": 0.4495,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0649,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5496
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.045,
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1613954,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Monta\u00f1esa",
"home": "Europa II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.020379,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1025,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3917,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4329004329004329,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1116,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1613954,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T10:01:16.245054+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Europa II & Montañesa!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Tercera División RFEF - Nhóm 5 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montañesa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Pobla Mafumet | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Cornellà | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | L'Hospitalet | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Martinenc | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Vilanova | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | San Cristóbal | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Grama | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Atlètic Lleida | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Badalona | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | L'Escala | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Mollerussa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Vilassar Mar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Tona | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Peralada | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 18 | Europa II | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martinenc | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 2 | Montañesa | 3 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Pobla Mafumet | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 4 | Cornellà | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 5 |
| 5 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | L'Hospitalet | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 7 | Vilanova | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 8 | San Cristóbal | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Grama | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Badalona | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | L'Escala | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Atlètic Lleida | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Europa II | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 |
| 14 | Tona | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Peralada | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | Vilassar Mar | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Mollerussa | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
