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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Lagun Onak Lagun Onak ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.62
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Lagun Onak win · Santurtzi 0–1 Lagun Onak
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.44,
"away_win_prob": 0.4188,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.46,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2931,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.39,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.41,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.47,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.16,
"home_win_prob": 0.2881,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Santurtzi or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Santurtzi"
},
"away_xg": 1.44,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Lagun Onak",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0728,
"edge_gap": 0.1252,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3456,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.8,
"draw": 29.3,
"home": 28.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.62
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.62,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Lagun Onak Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.89,
"market_odds": 2.62,
"model_odds": 2.39,
"overround": 10.4,
"prob_edge": 3.7,
"value_pct": 9.6,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 76.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 68.7,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.44,
"home_expected": 1.16,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Santurtzi or Draw",
"prob": 58.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Santurtzi or Lagun Onak",
"prob": 70.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Lagun Onak",
"prob": 71.2
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Lagun Onak",
"pick_prob": 71.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 41.9,
"draw_pct": 29.3,
"home_pct": 28.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Lagun Onak"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 9.8,
"implied_prob": 38.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Lagun Onak Win",
"model_prob": 41.9,
"odds": 2.62
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Lagun Onak",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 34.56,
"draw": 31.77,
"home": 33.66
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 09:14:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 08:44:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Santurtzi",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.66,
"gap_pp": -4.84,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 28.82
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.77,
"gap_pp": -2.44,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.33
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.56,
"gap_pp": 7.28,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 41.85
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.41,
"gap_pp": 6.79,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.59,
"gap_pp": -6.79,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.69,
"early": 2.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.66,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.66,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.85,
"early": 2.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.62,
"early": 2.62,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.25,
"early": 2.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.41,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.59,
"early": 1.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.59,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.59,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.0,
"ev": -0.194,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.16,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2071,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"edge": 0.011,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4869,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2278,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": -0.0121,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.5131,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.501
},
"p_final": 0.4979,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0044,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0739,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2071,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0739,
"implied_prob": 0.4869,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.4979
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1674,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.7,
"text": "-16.7%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.053,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.3,
"text": "+5.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.053,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"sort_key": 10197.7,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1623,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0106,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4164,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1623,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4271
},
"p_final": 0.4271,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0604,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0604,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2232,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.1068,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5689
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.5,
"text": "+8.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1608,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.1,
"text": "-16.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0845,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10076.05,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak.",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.018,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.8,
"text": "-1.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3456,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.018,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.8,
"text": "-1.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Lagun Onak",
"sort_key": 1795.5,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"alert_team": "Lagun Onak",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.32,
"hero_label": "Lagun Onak",
"market_prob_pct": 34.6,
"market_team": "Lagun Onak",
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_team": "Lagun Onak",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 72,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0964,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lagun Onak at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lagun Onak as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lagun Onak",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.018,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3456,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.32,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.32,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.44,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.16,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.44,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.16 \u00b7 Away xG 1.44 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"steam_team": "Lagun Onak",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0964,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lagun Onak at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lagun Onak as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lagun Onak",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.018,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3456,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Santurtzi 1.16 xG vs Lagun Onak 1.44 \u2192 Lagun Onak 41.9%",
"Market: Lagun Onak ~34.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Lagun Onak odds \u2191 +22.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Lagun Onak, but the market has moved away from Lagun Onak.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.85,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "Santurtzi",
"market_prob": 33.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.46,
"fair_prob": 29.31,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.32,
"fair_prob": 41.88,
"label": "Lagun Onak",
"market_prob": 34.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.51,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.51,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.47,
"fair_prob": 54.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.53,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.47,
"fair_prob": 46.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.47,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Lagun Onak",
"market_prob_pct": 34.56,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Lagun Onak"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Lagun Onak\u0027s win probability at 41.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 34.6%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.32,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Lagun Onak",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.3,
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Santurtzi 1.16 xG vs Lagun Onak 1.44 \u2192 Lagun Onak 41.9%",
"Market: Lagun Onak ~34.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Lagun Onak odds \u2191 +22.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Lagun Onak, but the market has moved away from Lagun Onak.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.32,
"hero_label": "Lagun Onak",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Lagun Onak odds lengthened \u2191 +22.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Lagun Onak.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Lagun Onak.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Lagun Onak.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Lagun Onak."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Lagun Onak.",
"Recent line movement on Lagun Onak (\u2191 +22.7%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.32,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.6 pp (at 41.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.6,
"max_prob_pct": 41.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Lagun Onak",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.3,
"lead": "The model rates Lagun Onak considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.85,
"edge_pp": -4.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Santurtzi",
"market_prob_pct": 33.66,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.46,
"edge_pp": -2.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.77,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.32,
"edge_pp": 7.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Lagun Onak",
"market_prob_pct": 34.56,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Lagun Onak.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Lagun Onak (34.6%).",
"However, Lagun Onak has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +22.7%, 5/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Lagun Onak, Market \u2192 Lagun Onak, while Lagun Onak odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.17,
"closing_odds": 2.62,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.17,
"entry_odds": 2.62,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 22.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Lagun Onak (22.7%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.70",
"2.45",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.70 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 45m",
"pick_team": "Lagun Onak",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.62,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,2.9 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Lagun Onak odds \u2191 +22.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Lagun Onak",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Lagun Onak odds \u2191 +22.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Market moved away from Lagun Onak while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Lagun Onak",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 72,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Lagun Onak",
"steam_score": 72,
"steam_team_name": "Lagun Onak",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "lagun-onak",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Lagun Onak",
"away_team_id": 9660,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9660.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lagun Onak",
"away_team_public_id": "1eLl0nfmZVgwml",
"away_team_slug": "lagun-onak",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1613654,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Santurtzi",
"home_team_id": 9664,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9664.webp",
"home_team_name": "Santurtzi",
"home_team_public_id": "41CslNl9DPuhm6",
"home_team_slug": "santurtzi",
"ht.home_team_slug": "santurtzi",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 4",
"league_id": 442,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/442.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 4",
"league_public_id": "3MVued5ZJyMRuk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 09:15:00",
"public_id": "1ldtFIZm1MmZfZ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4008,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0292,
"ev": -0.018,
"implied_prob": 0.3456,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3456,
"draw": 0.3177,
"home": 0.3366
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"p_final": 0.3748
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4335,
"best_odd": 2.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1246,
"implied_prob": 0.3177,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3456,
"draw": 0.3177,
"home": 0.3366
},
"model_prob": 0.2933,
"p_final": 0.3071
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4173,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1488,
"implied_prob": 0.3366,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3456,
"draw": 0.3177,
"home": 0.3366
},
"model_prob": 0.2882,
"p_final": 0.3164
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0368,
"ev": 0.0964,
"implied_prob": 0.3817,
"model_prob": 0.4185
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.85,
"edge": -0.0576,
"ev": -0.1641,
"implied_prob": 0.3509,
"model_prob": 0.2933
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": -0.0835,
"ev": -0.2247,
"implied_prob": 0.3717,
"model_prob": 0.2882
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2278,
"alpha_yes": 0.2071,
"best_no_odd": 1.81,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0547,
"edge_yes": 0.0547,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1674,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1157,
"ev_yes": 0.053,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0739,
"implied_no": 0.5147,
"implied_yes": 0.4853,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2278,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": -0.0121,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.5131,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.501
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2071,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0739,
"implied_prob": 0.4869,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.4979
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.501,
"p_final_yes": 0.4979,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1623,
"alpha_under": 0.2232,
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.57,
"edge_over": 0.0651,
"edge_under": -0.0651,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0604,
"ev_under": -0.1608,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1068,
"implied_over": 0.4169,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4164,
"implied_under": 0.5831,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5836,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1623,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4271
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2232,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.1068,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5689
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4271,
"p_final_under": 0.5689,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0964,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0964,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lagun Onak at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lagun Onak as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lagun Onak",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Lagun Onak, but the model still strongly favours Lagun Onak.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.018,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3456,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"draw_prob": 0.2933,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4185,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0292,
"ev": -0.018,
"implied_prob": 0.3456,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Lagun Onak"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2071,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"edge": 0.011,
"market_prob": 0.4869,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2278,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": -0.0121,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.5131,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.501
},
"p_final": 0.4979,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0739,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2071,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0739,
"implied_prob": 0.4869,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.4979
}
},
"edge": 0.0547,
"ev": 0.053,
"implied_prob": 0.4853,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1623,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0106,
"market_prob": 0.4164,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1623,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4271
},
"p_final": 0.4271,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0604,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2232,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.1068,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5689
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0651,
"ev": 0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.4169,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1613654,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0845,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4185,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.2882
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lagun Onak",
"home": "Santurtzi"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.02862,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.053,
"implied_prob": 0.4853,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.018,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3456,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1613654,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:14:07.129519+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Santurtzi & Lagun Onak!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Tercera División RFEF - Nhóm 4 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Derio | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Touring | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Leioa | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Erandio | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Eibar III | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Durango | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Aretxabaleta | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Sodupe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Deportivo Alavés III | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Real Sociedad III | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Pasaia KE | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | R. Union B | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Beasain | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Lagun Onak | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 16 | Santurtzi | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | San Ignacio | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 | Leioa | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Eibar III | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 | Deportivo Alavés III | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 5 | Durango | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Derio | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 7 | Touring | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 8 | Erandio | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad III | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | Pasaia KE | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | R. Union B | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | San Ignacio | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Sodupe | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Beasain | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Aretxabaleta | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 16 | Lagun Onak | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Santurtzi | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
