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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Estradense Celtiga ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.93
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Celtiga win · Celtiga 2–0 Estradense
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "48eb74fbc176faa7dfee4f83399cca6e7ade849104e33151f1170f5ec2013c3f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.4,
"away_win_prob": 0.3994,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.5,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.27,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.2,
"home_win_prob": 0.3058,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Estradense",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Estradense"
},
"away_xg": 1.4,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Estradense",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0682,
"edge_gap": 0.0941,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4679,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 40.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 30.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.93
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.93,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Estradense Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.14,
"market_odds": 1.93,
"model_odds": 2.5,
"overround": 10.7,
"prob_edge": -11.8,
"value_pct": -22.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 75.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 69.9,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.4,
"home_expected": 1.2,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Celtiga or Draw",
"prob": 60.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Celtiga or Estradense",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Estradense",
"prob": 69.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Celtiga or Estradense",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.9,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 30.6,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Estradense"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 10.2,
"implied_prob": 27.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Celtiga Win",
"model_prob": 30.6,
"odds": 3.6
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Estradense",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 46.79,
"draw": 28.13,
"home": 25.08
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 16:01:59",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 15:33:09",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Celtiga",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.08,
"gap_pp": 5.47,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 30.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.13,
"gap_pp": 1.34,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.79,
"gap_pp": -6.82,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 39.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.68,
"gap_pp": 3.52,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.32,
"gap_pp": -3.52,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.6,
"early": 3.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.08,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.21,
"early": 3.21,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.13,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.93,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.79,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.08,
"early": 2.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.68,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.68,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.68,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.32,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.32,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.2,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2133,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4474,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2133,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4548
},
"p_final": 0.4548,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0119,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0676,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2347,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5445
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1298,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.0,
"text": "-13.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0363,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.67,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.845,
"edge": 0.0098,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4959,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.815,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4942
},
"p_final": 0.5058,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0018,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0669,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.845,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0669,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5058
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1545,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.4,
"text": "-15.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0045,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.4,
"text": "+0.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0045,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 5203.6,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1679,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.8,
"text": "-16.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0428,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.3,
"text": "-4.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2286,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Estradense",
"sort_key": 1789.3,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"alert_team": "Estradense",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.85,
"hero_label": "Estradense",
"market_prob_pct": 46.8,
"market_team": "Estradense",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Estradense",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estradense)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estradense)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Estradense at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Estradense as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Estradense",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Estradense \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.60 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +10% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612734 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.60 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estradense).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +10% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1679,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2286,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "2/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.85,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.85,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.4,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.2,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.20 \u00b7 Away xG 1.40 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"steam_team": "Estradense",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estradense)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estradense)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Estradense at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Estradense as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Estradense",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Estradense \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.60 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +10% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612734 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.60 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estradense).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +10% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1679,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2286,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Celtiga 1.20 xG vs Estradense 1.40 \u2192 Estradense 39.9%",
"Market: Estradense ~46.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Estradense \u2193 -8.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Estradense with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.5,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Celtiga",
"market_prob": 25.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.35,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.85,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Estradense",
"market_prob": 46.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.73,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.73,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.81,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.81,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Estradense",
"market_prob_pct": 46.79,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Estradense"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Estradense\u0027s win probability at 46.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.85,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Estradense",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.9,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Estradense \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Celtiga 1.20 xG vs Estradense 1.40 \u2192 Estradense 39.9%",
"Market: Estradense ~46.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Estradense \u2193 -8.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Estradense with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.85,
"hero_label": "Estradense",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Estradense odds shortened \u2193 -8.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Estradense. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Estradense.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Estradense. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Estradense."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Estradense above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Estradense (\u2193 -8.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.85,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Estradense",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Estradense higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.5,
"edge_pp": 5.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Celtiga",
"market_prob_pct": 25.08,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.35,
"edge_pp": 1.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.13,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.85,
"edge_pp": -6.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Estradense",
"market_prob_pct": 46.79,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Estradense.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Estradense (46.8%).",
"Estradense has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -8.9%, 2/8).",
"Estradense \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.81,
"closing_odds": 1.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.81,
"entry_odds": 1.93,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.9
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Estradense (8.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.25",
"2.09",
"1.93"
],
"display": "2.34 \u2192 1.87 \u2192 2.05",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 44m",
"pick_team": "Estradense",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.34"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.87"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.05"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.25,
1.93,
2.05
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,11.3",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.93"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.05"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.25,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Estradense",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.05,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Estradense",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "Estradense",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Estradense",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "estradense",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Estradense",
"away_team_id": 9611,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9611.webp",
"away_team_name": "Estradense",
"away_team_public_id": "5Ac4gagABjMbpS",
"away_team_slug": "estradense",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1612734,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Celtiga",
"home_team_id": 26533,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26533.webp",
"home_team_name": "Celtiga",
"home_team_public_id": "4e6fKAIvYqxbig",
"home_team_slug": "celtiga",
"ht.home_team_slug": "celtiga",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 1",
"league_id": 439,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/439.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Nh\u00f3m 1",
"league_public_id": "2fRyzrmay3Uu5M",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 16:00:00",
"public_id": "2CUMILz8h0Jfnu",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5386,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0367,
"ev": -0.1679,
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4679,
"draw": 0.2813,
"home": 0.2508
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.4311
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2939,
"best_odd": 3.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.004,
"ev": -0.0843,
"implied_prob": 0.2813,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4679,
"draw": 0.2813,
"home": 0.2508
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2853
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2754,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0428,
"implied_prob": 0.2508,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4679,
"draw": 0.2813,
"home": 0.2508
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.2659
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.1185,
"ev": -0.2286,
"implied_prob": 0.5181,
"model_prob": 0.3997
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.21,
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.0539,
"implied_prob": 0.3115,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0278,
"ev": 0.1,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.3056
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2091,
"alpha_yes": 0.2091,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.85,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0481,
"edge_yes": 0.0481,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1545,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1029,
"ev_yes": 0.0045,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0669,
"implied_no": 0.5051,
"implied_yes": 0.4949,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.815,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4942
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.845,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0669,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5058
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4942,
"p_final_yes": 0.5058,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2133,
"alpha_under": 0.2347,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.66,
"edge_over": 0.0373,
"edge_under": -0.0373,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0676,
"ev_under": -0.1298,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0962,
"implied_over": 0.4447,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4474,
"implied_under": 0.5553,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5526,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2133,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4548
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2347,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5445
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4548,
"p_final_under": 0.5445,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.1
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estradense)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Estradense at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Estradense as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Estradense",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Estradense \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.60 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +10% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612734 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.60 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estradense).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +10% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1679,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2286,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0363,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0367,
"ev": -0.1679,
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Estradense"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.845,
"edge": 0.0098,
"market_prob": 0.4959,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.815,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4942
},
"p_final": 0.5058,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0669,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.845,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0669,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5058
}
},
"edge": 0.0481,
"ev": 0.0045,
"implied_prob": 0.4949,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2133,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"market_prob": 0.4474,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2133,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4548
},
"p_final": 0.4548,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0676,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2347,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5445
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0373,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1612734,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0363,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3997,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3056
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Estradense",
"home": "Celtiga"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1679,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2286,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612734,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T16:02:01.291291+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Celtiga & Estradense!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Tercera División RFEF - Nhóm 1 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boiro | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Sarriana | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Alondras | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Villalbés | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Antela | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Barco | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Lalin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Atlético Arteixo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Pontevedra B | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Estradense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Portonovo SD | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Celta de Vigo III | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Silva | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Arenteiro | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Somozas | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Celtiga | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Coruña | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Viveiro | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alondras | 4 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 2 | Sarriana | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 3 | Pontevedra B | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 4 |
| 4 | Boiro | 3 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 | Villalbés | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Estradense | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Celta de Vigo III | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Coruña | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 0 |
| 9 | Barco | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Atlético Arteixo | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Lalin | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 12 | Portonovo SD | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Silva | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Celtiga | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Antela | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Arenteiro | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Somozas | 4 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 | Viveiro | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
