Sep 24, 2026 - 18:00
3
1.21
0
1.39
xG Accuracy: 42%
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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Rosario Central Reserves Newell's Old Boys Dự bị ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.29
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Newell's Old Boys Dự bị win · Newell's Old Boys Dự bị 3–0 Rosario Central Reserves
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "9807c165a4addb58b39a9358f2346701bce35a88bf28bf39aba58115f88ff831",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"away_win_prob": 0.3946,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.53,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.22,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"home_win_prob": 0.3103,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Rosario Central Reserves",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Rosario Central Reserves"
},
"away_xg": 1.39,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0792,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3158,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 39.5,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 31.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.9
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.9,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Rosario Central Reserves Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.17,
"market_odds": 2.9,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": 5.0,
"value_pct": 14.6,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 6,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 75.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 12,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 70.2,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.39,
"home_expected": 1.21,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb or Draw",
"prob": 60.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb or Rosario Central Reserves",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Rosario Central Reserves",
"prob": 69.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb or Rosario Central Reserves",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.5,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 31.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Rosario Central Reserves"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 14.6,
"implied_prob": 34.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Rosario Central Reserves Win",
"model_prob": 39.5,
"odds": 2.9
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.58,
"draw": 28.44,
"home": 39.99
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-24 17:59:23",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-24 17:29:25",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.99,
"gap_pp": -8.96,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.44,
"gap_pp": 1.04,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.58,
"gap_pp": 7.92,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.83,
"gap_pp": 4.37,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.17,
"gap_pp": -4.37,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.29,
"early": 2.29,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.99,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.99,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.22,
"early": 3.22,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.44,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.9,
"early": 2.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.58,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.14,
"early": 2.14,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.83,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.83,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.67,
"early": 1.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.17,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.17,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.21,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0105,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4316,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0627,
"implied_prob": 0.4316,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4421
},
"p_final": 0.4421,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0218,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0627,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2288,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.1035,
"implied_prob": 0.5684,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5568
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.0,
"text": "+6.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0604,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10204.36,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves.",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0068,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.7,
"text": "+0.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3158,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0068,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.7,
"text": "+0.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1452,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"sort_key": 5205.44,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0092,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4993,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.103,
"implied_prob": 0.5007,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4915
},
"p_final": 0.5085,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0063,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0694,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0694,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5085
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1545,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.4,
"text": "-15.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0045,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.4,
"text": "+0.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0045,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 5203.6,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"alert_team": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.96,
"hero_label": "Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob_pct": 31.6,
"market_team": "Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1453,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rosario Central Reserves at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rosario Central Reserves as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Rosario Central Reserves \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.38 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612048 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.38 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0068,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3158,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1452,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.96,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.96,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"steam_team": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1453,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rosario Central Reserves at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rosario Central Reserves as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Rosario Central Reserves \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.38 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612048 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.38 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0068,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3158,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1452,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb 1.21 xG vs Rosario Central Reserves 1.39 \u2192 Rosario Central Reserves 39.5%",
"Market: Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb ~31.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Rosario Central Reserves odds \u2191 +4.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Rosario Central Reserves, but the market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.96,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob": 39.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.07,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.88,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"market_prob": 31.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.84,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.84,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.27,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.27,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob_pct": 39.99,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Rosario Central Reserves"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb\u0027s win probability at 40.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.96,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.9,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb 1.21 xG vs Rosario Central Reserves 1.39 \u2192 Rosario Central Reserves 39.5%",
"Market: Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb ~31.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Rosario Central Reserves odds \u2191 +4.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Rosario Central Reserves, but the market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.96,
"hero_label": "Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Rosario Central Reserves odds lengthened \u2191 +4.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Rosario Central Reserves has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Rosario Central Reserves \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Rosario Central Reserves has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Rosario Central Reserves \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Rosario Central Reserves has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Rosario Central Reserves."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.96,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.96,
"edge_pp": -8.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob_pct": 39.99,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.07,
"edge_pp": 1.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.44,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.88,
"edge_pp": 7.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 31.58,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Rosario Central Reserves \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb (31.6%).",
"Rosario Central Reserves odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.7%, 7/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Rosario Central Reserves, Market \u2192 Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb, while Rosario Central Reserves odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.67,
"closing_odds": 2.29,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.67,
"entry_odds": 2.29,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Rosario Central Reserves (4.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.90",
"2.83",
"2.75"
],
"display": "3.00 \u2192 2.55 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"pick_team": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.75,
2.9,
2.88
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.75,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/8 sportsbooks on Rosario Central Reserves",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"summary": "Market moved away from Rosario Central Reserves while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"pick_team": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_team_name": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "rosario-central-res",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"away_team_id": 18696,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18696.webp",
"away_team_name": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"away_team_public_id": "4Ja6SnIorsNec0",
"away_team_slug": "rosario-central-res",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1612048,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"home_team_id": 18691,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18691.webp",
"home_team_name": "Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"home_team_public_id": "3SbLbwk7uc7aZv",
"home_team_slug": "newell-s-old-boys-res",
"ht.home_team_slug": "newell-s-old-boys-res",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Reserve League Argentina",
"league_id": 906,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/906.webp",
"league_name": "Reserve League Argentina",
"league_public_id": "5YMAxRUD9HbQHC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-24 18:00:00",
"public_id": "4cjARkFVmI7krT",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3966,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0314,
"ev": 0.0068,
"implied_prob": 0.3158,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3158,
"draw": 0.2844,
"home": 0.3999
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.3472
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2953,
"best_odd": 3.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0031,
"ev": -0.0744,
"implied_prob": 0.2844,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3158,
"draw": 0.2844,
"home": 0.3999
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2874
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3895,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0349,
"ev": -0.1642,
"implied_prob": 0.3999,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3158,
"draw": 0.2844,
"home": 0.3999
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.365
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": 0.0501,
"ev": 0.1453,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.22,
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.3106,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": -0.1264,
"ev": -0.2894,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2103,
"alpha_yes": 0.2103,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.85,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0427,
"edge_yes": 0.0427,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1545,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.103,
"ev_yes": 0.0045,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0694,
"implied_no": 0.4997,
"implied_yes": 0.5003,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.103,
"implied_prob": 0.5007,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4915
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0694,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5085
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4915,
"p_final_yes": 0.5085,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.208,
"alpha_under": 0.2288,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.12,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.61,
"edge_over": 0.0484,
"edge_under": -0.0484,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0627,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1035,
"implied_over": 0.4336,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4316,
"implied_under": 0.5664,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5684,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0627,
"implied_prob": 0.4316,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4421
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2288,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.1035,
"implied_prob": 0.5684,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5568
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4421,
"p_final_under": 0.5568,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1453,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1453,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rosario Central Reserves at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rosario Central Reserves as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Rosario Central Reserves \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.38 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612048 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.38 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Rosario Central Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Rosario Central Reserves.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0068,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3158,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1452,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0314,
"ev": 0.0068,
"implied_prob": 0.3158,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Rosario Central Reserves"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0092,
"market_prob": 0.4993,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.103,
"implied_prob": 0.5007,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4915
},
"p_final": 0.5085,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0694,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0694,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5085
}
},
"edge": 0.0427,
"ev": 0.0045,
"implied_prob": 0.5003,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0105,
"market_prob": 0.4316,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0627,
"implied_prob": 0.4316,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4421
},
"p_final": 0.4421,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0627,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2288,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.1035,
"implied_prob": 0.5684,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5568
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0484,
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1612048,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3949,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Rosario Central Reserves",
"home": "Newell\u0027s Old Boys D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.020379,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0068,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3158,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1452,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612048,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T17:59:24.898719+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Newell's Old Boys Dự bị & Rosario Central Reserves!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Reserve League Argentina — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sársfield Reserves | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 47 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors Dự bị | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 39 |
| 3 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 39 |
| 4 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 5 | Independiente Dự bị | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 36 |
| 6 | Lanús Dự bị | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 7 | Newell's Old Boys Dự bị | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 8 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 |
| 9 | Defensa y Justicia Dự bị | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | Unión Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Dự bị | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 |
| 13 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 14 | Belgrano Córdoba Dự bị | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 15 | Talleres Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 16 | Huracán Dự bị | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 17 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 18 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 19 | Deportivo Riestra Dự bị | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 20 | Independiente Rivadavia Dự bị | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 21 | Instituto Dự bị | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 22 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 |
| 23 | Gimnasia La Plata Dự bị | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 24 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 25 | Banfield Dự bị | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 26 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 27 | Central Córdoba SdE Dự bị | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 28 | Colón Dự bị | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 29 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 30 | Barracas Central Dự bị | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 32 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 33 | Godoy Cruz Dự bị | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 34 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 |
| 35 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11 |
| 36 | San Martín San Juan Reserves | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sársfield Reserves | 20 | 42 | 13 | +29 | 47 |
| 2 | Lanús Dự bị | 19 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 35 |
| 3 | Independiente Dự bị | 19 | 38 | 19 | +19 | 36 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia Dự bị | 18 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 32 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors Dự bị | 20 | 36 | 12 | +24 | 39 |
| 6 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 39 |
| 7 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 37 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys Dự bị | 19 | 27 | 18 | +9 | 34 |
| 9 | Talleres Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 | Belgrano Córdoba Dự bị | 18 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 30 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Dự bị | 18 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 28 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra Dự bị | 18 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 25 |
| 14 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 26 |
| 15 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 28 |
| 16 | Huracán Dự bị | 18 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 26 |
| 17 | Unión Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 29 |
| 18 | Independiente Rivadavia Dự bị | 18 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
| 19 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 24 |
| 20 | Central Córdoba SdE Dự bị | 18 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 19 |
| 21 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 12 |
| 22 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 33 |
| 23 | Instituto Dự bị | 18 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 24 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
| 25 | Godoy Cruz Dự bị | 18 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 15 |
| 26 | Gimnasia La Plata Dự bị | 18 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 23 |
| 27 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 26 |
| 28 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 18 |
| 29 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 23 |
| 30 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 16 |
| 31 | San Martín San Juan Reserves | 18 | 16 | 59 | -43 | 8 |
| 32 | Colón Dự bị | 18 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 18 |
| 33 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
| 34 | Banfield Dự bị | 18 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 23 |
| 35 | Barracas Central Dự bị | 18 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 17 |
| 36 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 18 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 11 |
