Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Barracas Central Dự bị Deportivo Riestra Dự bị ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.89
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Deportivo Riestra Dự bị win · Deportivo Riestra Dự bị 3–0 Barracas Central Dự bị
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "6095a22abbba404d38361464d85ee11fa0426a1acc24dc50d068fbb7c299bef5",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1308,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2352,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.89
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.89,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.25,
"market_odds": 3.89,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": 10.9,
"value_pct": 42.5,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 13,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb or Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb or Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 42.5,
"implied_prob": 25.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb Win",
"model_prob": 36.6,
"odds": 3.89
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.52,
"draw": 30.5,
"home": 45.98
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-24 17:59:17",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-24 17:29:19",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.98,
"gap_pp": -12.22,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.5,
"gap_pp": -0.85,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.52,
"gap_pp": 13.08,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.75,
"gap_pp": 11.45,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.25,
"gap_pp": -11.45,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.98,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.98,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.0,
"early": 3.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.5,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.89,
"early": 3.89,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.52,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.52,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.53,
"early": 2.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.75,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.47,
"early": 1.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.25,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1941,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0178,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.4533,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1302,
"implied_prob": 0.5467,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5271
},
"p_final": 0.4711,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0846,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0625,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1941,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0625,
"implied_prob": 0.4533,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4711
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.4,
"text": "-20.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.4,
"text": "+14.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1445,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10280.05,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1567,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0135,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.3958,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1567,
"best_odd": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.3958,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4093
},
"p_final": 0.4093,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.111,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0565,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2155,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.6042,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5856
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1568,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 15.7,
"text": "+15.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1568,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10141.12,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb).",
"consensus_odds": 3.89,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0377,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.8,
"text": "+3.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2352,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0377,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.8,
"text": "+3.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"sort_key": 10033.93,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"alert_team": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.07,
"hero_label": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob_pct": 23.5,
"market_team": "Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 71,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4237,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.61 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612043 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.61 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0377,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2352,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2570694087403599,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.07,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.07,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"steam_team": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4237,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.61 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612043 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.61 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0377,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2352,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2570694087403599,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb 1.27 xG vs Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb 1.33 \u2192 Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb 36.6%",
"Market: Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb ~23.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb \u2193 -19.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob": 45.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.86,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.07,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob": 23.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.29,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.29,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.15,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.15,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 13.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob_pct": 23.52,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb\u0027s win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.5%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 13.07,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 23.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.1,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb 1.27 xG vs Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb 1.33 \u2192 Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb 36.6%",
"Market: Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb ~23.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb \u2193 -19.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.07,
"hero_label": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb odds shortened \u2193 -19.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb (\u2193 -19.2%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.07,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"largest_gap_pp": 13.1,
"lead": "The model rates Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.21,
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob_pct": 45.98,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.86,
"edge_pp": -0.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.5,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.07,
"edge_pp": 13.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"market_prob_pct": 23.52,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb (23.5%).",
"However, Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -19.2%, 4/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb, Market \u2192 Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb, Recent sharp money \u2192 Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.71,
"closing_odds": 3.89,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.71,
"entry_odds": 3.89,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 19.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb (19.2%, 4/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.33",
"3.92",
"3.50"
],
"display": "4.33 \u2192 3.40 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"pick_team": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.33,
3.89,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,9.5 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.33,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb \u2193 -19.2% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb \u2193 -19.2% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 71,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"pick_team": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"steam_score": 71,
"steam_team_name": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "barracas-central-res",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"away_team_id": 18680,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18680.webp",
"away_team_name": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"away_team_public_id": "1X8incK9cufrGT",
"away_team_slug": "barracas-central-res",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1612043,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"home_team_id": 22937,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22937.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"home_team_public_id": "4b5PqH53NTqHbS",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-riestra-res",
"ht.home_team_slug": "deportivo-riestra-res",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Reserve League Argentina",
"league_id": 906,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/906.webp",
"league_name": "Reserve League Argentina",
"league_public_id": "5YMAxRUD9HbQHC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-24 18:00:00",
"public_id": "5puriFtCfOFDsH",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2412,
"best_odd": 3.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0315,
"ev": 0.0377,
"implied_prob": 0.2352,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2352,
"draw": 0.305,
"home": 0.4598
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.2667
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2962,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0025,
"ev": -0.0926,
"implied_prob": 0.305,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2352,
"draw": 0.305,
"home": 0.4598
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3025
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.49,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0599,
"ev": -0.2042,
"implied_prob": 0.4598,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2352,
"draw": 0.305,
"home": 0.4598
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3999
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.89,
"edge": 0.1089,
"ev": 0.4237,
"implied_prob": 0.2571,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": -0.0369,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": -0.165,
"ev": -0.3283,
"implied_prob": 0.5025,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2135,
"alpha_yes": 0.1941,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0915,
"edge_yes": 0.0915,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1302,
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0625,
"implied_no": 0.5465,
"implied_yes": 0.4535,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1302,
"implied_prob": 0.5467,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5271
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1941,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0625,
"implied_prob": 0.4533,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4711
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5271,
"p_final_yes": 0.4711,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1567,
"alpha_under": 0.2155,
"best_over_odd": 2.4,
"best_under_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.305,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.51,
"edge_over": 0.0829,
"edge_under": -0.0829,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1568,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0565,
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1157,
"implied_over": 0.3991,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3958,
"implied_under": 0.6009,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6042,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1567,
"best_odd": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.3958,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4093
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2155,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.6042,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5856
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4093,
"p_final_under": 0.5856,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4237,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4237,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.61 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612043 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.61 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0377,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2352,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2570694087403599,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.89,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0315,
"ev": 0.0377,
"implied_prob": 0.2352,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1941,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0178,
"market_prob": 0.4533,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1302,
"implied_prob": 0.5467,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5271
},
"p_final": 0.4711,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0625,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1941,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0625,
"implied_prob": 0.4533,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4711
}
},
"edge": 0.0915,
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1567,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0135,
"market_prob": 0.3958,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1567,
"best_odd": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.3958,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4093
},
"p_final": 0.4093,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0565,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2155,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.6042,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5856
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0829,
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.3991,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1612043,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1568,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.3991,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.3991,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Barracas Central D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb",
"home": "Deportivo Riestra D\u1ef1 b\u1ecb"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078753,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0377,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2352,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2570694087403599,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+42.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612043,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T17:59:19.367109+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Deportivo Riestra Dự bị & Barracas Central Dự bị!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Reserve League Argentina — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sársfield Reserves | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 47 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors Dự bị | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 39 |
| 3 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 39 |
| 4 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 5 | Independiente Dự bị | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 36 |
| 6 | Lanús Dự bị | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 7 | Newell's Old Boys Dự bị | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 8 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 |
| 9 | Defensa y Justicia Dự bị | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | Unión Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Dự bị | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 |
| 13 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 14 | Belgrano Córdoba Dự bị | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 15 | Talleres Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 16 | Huracán Dự bị | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 17 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 18 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 19 | Deportivo Riestra Dự bị | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 20 | Independiente Rivadavia Dự bị | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 21 | Instituto Dự bị | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 22 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 |
| 23 | Gimnasia La Plata Dự bị | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 24 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 25 | Banfield Dự bị | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 26 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 27 | Central Córdoba SdE Dự bị | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 28 | Colón Dự bị | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 29 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 30 | Barracas Central Dự bị | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 32 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 33 | Godoy Cruz Dự bị | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 34 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 |
| 35 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11 |
| 36 | San Martín San Juan Reserves | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sársfield Reserves | 20 | 42 | 13 | +29 | 47 |
| 2 | Lanús Dự bị | 19 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 35 |
| 3 | Independiente Dự bị | 19 | 38 | 19 | +19 | 36 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia Dự bị | 18 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 32 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors Dự bị | 20 | 36 | 12 | +24 | 39 |
| 6 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 39 |
| 7 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 37 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys Dự bị | 19 | 27 | 18 | +9 | 34 |
| 9 | Talleres Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 | Belgrano Córdoba Dự bị | 18 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 30 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Dự bị | 18 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 28 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra Dự bị | 18 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 25 |
| 14 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 26 |
| 15 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 28 |
| 16 | Huracán Dự bị | 18 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 26 |
| 17 | Unión Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 29 |
| 18 | Independiente Rivadavia Dự bị | 18 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
| 19 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 24 |
| 20 | Central Córdoba SdE Dự bị | 18 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 19 |
| 21 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 12 |
| 22 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 33 |
| 23 | Instituto Dự bị | 18 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 24 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
| 25 | Godoy Cruz Dự bị | 18 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 15 |
| 26 | Gimnasia La Plata Dự bị | 18 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 23 |
| 27 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 26 |
| 28 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 18 |
| 29 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 23 |
| 30 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 16 |
| 31 | San Martín San Juan Reserves | 18 | 16 | 59 | -43 | 8 |
| 32 | Colón Dự bị | 18 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 18 |
| 33 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
| 34 | Banfield Dự bị | 18 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 23 |
| 35 | Barracas Central Dự bị | 18 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 17 |
| 36 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 18 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 11 |
