Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Boeung Ket Visakha ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.01
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Visakha win · Boeung Ket 1–2 Visakha
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "39177827b9d1018add6a551d26c3fcd3550b0e8003798938d3ac8742ad6921aa",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Visakha and +2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Visakha"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Boeung Ket",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0598,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3012,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.95
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.95,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Boeung Ket Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.32,
"market_odds": 2.95,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": 2.2,
"value_pct": 6.5,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Boeung Ket or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Boeung Ket or Visakha",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Visakha",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Boeung Ket or Visakha",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Boeung Ket"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+2.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 4.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 3.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 6.5,
"implied_prob": 33.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Boeung Ket Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 2.95
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Visakha",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 44.2,
"draw": 25.68,
"home": 30.12
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 11:02:03",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 10:32:20",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Boeung Ket",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.12,
"gap_pp": 5.98,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.68,
"gap_pp": 3.99,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.2,
"gap_pp": -9.96,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.42,
"gap_pp": -8.22,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.58,
"gap_pp": 8.22,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.95,
"early": 2.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.12,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.12,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.46,
"early": 3.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.68,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.68,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.01,
"early": 2.01,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.2,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.2,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.63,
"early": 1.63,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.42,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.11,
"early": 2.11,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.58,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.0625,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1919,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0188,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.4198,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0207,
"ev": -0.1216,
"implied_prob": 0.5802,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5595
},
"p_final": 0.4386,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1241,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0482,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1919,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.4198,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4386
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2143,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.4,
"text": "-21.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.3,
"text": "+23.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2328,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10359.52,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1653,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"edge": 0.009,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4005,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1653,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0622,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4095
},
"p_final": 0.4095,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.042,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0622,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2273,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5995,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5871
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.092,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.2,
"text": "+9.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.092,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10082.8,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0393,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.9,
"text": "-3.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0393,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.9,
"text": "-3.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0647,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Boeung Ket",
"sort_key": 1790.175,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"alert_team": "Boeung Ket",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.96,
"hero_label": "Visakha",
"market_prob_pct": 30.1,
"market_team": "Visakha",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Boeung Ket",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "disagrees",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Market disagrees with model",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Boeung Ket)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Boeung Ket)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Boeung Ket at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Boeung Ket as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Boeung Ket",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Boeung Ket).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0393,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3389830508474576,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0647,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.96,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.96,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"steam_team": "Boeung Ket",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Boeung Ket).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Boeung Ket)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Boeung Ket)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Boeung Ket at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Boeung Ket as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Boeung Ket",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Boeung Ket).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0393,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3389830508474576,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0647,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Boeung Ket 1.32 xG vs Visakha 1.28 \u2192 Boeung Ket 36.1%",
"Market: Visakha ~30.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Boeung Ket \u2193 -13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Boeung Ket with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.99,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Boeung Ket",
"market_prob": 30.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.97,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.96,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Visakha",
"market_prob": 44.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.39,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.59,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.39,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.41,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.81,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.81,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Visakha",
"market_prob_pct": 44.2,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Boeung Ket"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Visakha\u0027s win probability at 44.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 10.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.96,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Boeung Ket",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Boeung Ket \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Boeung Ket 1.32 xG vs Visakha 1.28 \u2192 Boeung Ket 36.1%",
"Market: Visakha ~30.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Boeung Ket \u2193 -13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Boeung Ket with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.96,
"hero_label": "Visakha",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Boeung Ket odds shortened \u2193 -13.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Boeung Ket, with odds shortening by 13.3%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Visakha. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Boeung Ket \u2014 odds shortened by 13.3%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Visakha. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Boeung Ket, with odds shortening by 13.3%.",
"Buying interest on Boeung Ket \u2014 odds shortened by 13.3%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Visakha above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Boeung Ket has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 13.3%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/7) supports the current market view on Boeung Ket."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.96,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Visakha",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Visakha higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 10.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.99,
"edge_pp": 5.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Boeung Ket",
"market_prob_pct": 30.12,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.97,
"edge_pp": 3.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.68,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.96,
"edge_pp": -9.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Visakha",
"market_prob_pct": 44.2,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Boeung Ket \u2014 odds shortened by 13.3%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Visakha (30.1%).",
"However, Boeung Ket has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -13.3%, 5/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Boeung Ket, Market \u2192 Visakha, Recent sharp money \u2192 Boeung Ket.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.75,
"closing_odds": 2.01,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.75,
"entry_odds": 2.01,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 4h 17m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Boeung Ket (13.3%, 5/7) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.75",
"3.35",
"2.95"
],
"display": "4.33 \u2192 2.95 \u2192 3.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 4h 17m",
"pick_team": "Boeung Ket",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.75,
2.95,
3.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,11.3",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.95"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.75,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Boeung Ket \u2193 -13.3% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Boeung Ket",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Boeung Ket \u2193 -13.3% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Boeung Ket",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"pick_team": "Boeung Ket",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_team_name": "Boeung Ket",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "visakha",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Visakha",
"away_team_id": 5397,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5397.webp",
"away_team_name": "Visakha",
"away_team_public_id": "5C2HrPa9WZc7qu",
"away_team_slug": "visakha",
"country_code": "KH",
"country_display_name": "Cambodia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/kh.svg",
"country_id": 28,
"country_name": "Cambodia",
"fixture_id": 1610640,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Cambodia",
"home_team_display_name": "Boeung Ket",
"home_team_id": 5387,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5387.webp",
"home_team_name": "Boeung Ket",
"home_team_public_id": "4QKXSXqrlvkiAq",
"home_team_slug": "boeung-ket",
"ht.home_team_slug": "boeung-ket",
"league_country": "Cambodia",
"league_country_display": "Cambodia",
"league_display_name": "C-League Campuchia",
"league_id": 410,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/410.webp",
"league_name": "C-League Campuchia",
"league_public_id": "4HEvUn3PZHYeI2",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 11:00:00",
"public_id": "1AmT4HhPywqluX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Phnom Penh",
"venue_name": "National Olympic Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3827,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0381,
"ev": -0.1882,
"implied_prob": 0.442,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.442,
"draw": 0.2568,
"home": 0.3012
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4039
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2821,
"best_odd": 3.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0726,
"implied_prob": 0.2568,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.442,
"draw": 0.2568,
"home": 0.3012
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.268
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4097,
"best_odd": 2.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0245,
"ev": -0.0393,
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.442,
"draw": 0.2568,
"home": 0.3012
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3257
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.1551,
"ev": -0.3118,
"implied_prob": 0.4975,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.46,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": 0.0265,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.95,
"edge": 0.022,
"ev": 0.0648,
"implied_prob": 0.339,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1653,
"alpha_yes": 0.2273,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0581,
"edge_yes": -0.0581,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.092,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0622,
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1017,
"implied_no": 0.3969,
"implied_yes": 0.6031,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1653,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0622,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4095
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2273,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5995,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5871
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4095,
"p_final_yes": 0.5871,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.211,
"alpha_under": 0.1919,
"best_over_odd": 1.63,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.17,
"edge_over": -0.1039,
"edge_under": 0.1039,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2143,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1216,
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0482,
"implied_over": 0.5859,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5802,
"implied_under": 0.4141,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4198,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0207,
"ev": -0.1216,
"implied_prob": 0.5802,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5595
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1919,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.4198,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4386
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5595,
"p_final_under": 0.4386,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Boeung Ket)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Boeung Ket at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Boeung Ket as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Boeung Ket",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Boeung Ket).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0393,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3389830508474576,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0647,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0245,
"ev": -0.0393,
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Boeung Ket"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1653,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"edge": 0.009,
"market_prob": 0.4005,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1653,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0622,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4095
},
"p_final": 0.4095,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0622,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2273,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5995,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5871
}
},
"edge": 0.0581,
"ev": 0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1919,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0188,
"market_prob": 0.4198,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0207,
"ev": -0.1216,
"implied_prob": 0.5802,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5595
},
"p_final": 0.4386,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0482,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1919,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.4198,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4386
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1039,
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.4141,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1610640,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2328,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Visakha",
"home": "Boeung Ket"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.084413,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.4141,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0393,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3389830508474576,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0647,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1610640,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T11:02:05.334634+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Boeung Ket & Visakha!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
C-League Campuchia — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Visakha | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Svay Rieng | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | NagaWorld | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Dangkor Senchey | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | Kompong Dewa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Kirivong Sok Sen Chey | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Phnom Penh Crown | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Angkor Tiger | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 9 | Boeung Ket | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Life Sihanoukville | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | National Defense | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Visakha | 3 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 9 |
| 2 | Dangkor Senchey | 3 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 5 |
| 3 | Svay Rieng | 3 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 7 |
| 4 | NagaWorld | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | National Defense | 3 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 0 |
| 6 | Phnom Penh Crown | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 7 | Boeung Ket | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1 |
| 8 | Angkor Tiger | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 |
| 9 | Kompong Dewa | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Kirivong Sok Sen Chey | 3 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 3 |
| 11 | Life Sihanoukville | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
