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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Halkanoras Iraklis Yerolakkou ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.95
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Iraklis Yerolakkou win · Halkanoras 0–2 Iraklis Yerolakkou
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "0640a99432f0d17c2c965e0ed79cd9961ea19e8983519e02493a255f632167cd",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.2,
"away_win_prob": 0.3058,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.27,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.5,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.4,
"home_win_prob": 0.3994,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Halkanoras or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "Halkanoras"
},
"away_xg": 1.2,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Halkanoras",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0604,
"edge_gap": 0.0941,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4601,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 30.6,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 40.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 1.95
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.95,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Halkanoras Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.17,
"market_odds": 1.95,
"model_odds": 2.5,
"overround": 11.5,
"prob_edge": -11.3,
"value_pct": -22.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 69.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 75.3,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.2,
"home_expected": 1.4,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Halkanoras or Draw",
"prob": 69.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Halkanoras or Iraklis Yerolakkou",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Iraklis Yerolakkou",
"prob": 60.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Halkanoras or Iraklis Yerolakkou",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.6,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Halkanoras"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 0.3,
"implied_prob": 29.4,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.5,
"odds": 3.4
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Iraklis Yerolakkou",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 27.6,
"draw": 26.39,
"home": 46.01
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 15:58:18",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 15:34:06",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Halkanoras",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.01,
"gap_pp": -6.04,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.39,
"gap_pp": 3.09,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.6,
"gap_pp": 2.95,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 30.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.72,
"gap_pp": 4.48,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.28,
"gap_pp": -4.48,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.95,
"early": 1.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.01,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.4,
"early": 3.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.39,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.39,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.25,
"early": 3.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.6,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.15,
"early": 2.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.72,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.72,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.67,
"early": 1.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.28,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.28,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.4,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4409,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4495
},
"p_final": 0.4495,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0026,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0649,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5496
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0363,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.67,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1451,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0076,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4905,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1451,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.0916,
"implied_prob": 0.5095,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5019
},
"p_final": 0.4981,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0208,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0635,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1451,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0635,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4981
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1454,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.5,
"text": "-14.5%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0263,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.6,
"text": "+2.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0263,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 5221.04,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras.",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1671,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.7,
"text": "-16.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0728,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.3,
"text": "-7.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2206,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Halkanoras",
"sort_key": 1781.8,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/3",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/3 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"alert_team": "Iraklis Yerolakkou",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.07,
"hero_label": "Halkanoras",
"market_prob_pct": 46.0,
"market_team": "Halkanoras",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Halkanoras",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Halkanoras at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Halkanoras as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Halkanoras",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1671,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2206,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/3",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.3,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.07,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.07,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"steam_team": "Iraklis Yerolakkou",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Halkanoras at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Halkanoras as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Halkanoras",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1671,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2206,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Halkanoras 1.40 xG vs Iraklis Yerolakkou 1.20 \u2192 Halkanoras 39.9%",
"Market: Halkanoras ~46.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Iraklis Yerolakkou \u2193 -3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Halkanoras, but sharp money moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.07,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Halkanoras",
"market_prob": 46.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.09,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.98,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Iraklis Yerolakkou",
"market_prob": 27.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.22,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.22,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.25,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.25,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Halkanoras",
"market_prob_pct": 46.01,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Iraklis Yerolakkou"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Halkanoras\u0027s win probability at 46.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 6.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.07,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Halkanoras",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.1,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Halkanoras 1.40 xG vs Iraklis Yerolakkou 1.20 \u2192 Halkanoras 39.9%",
"Market: Halkanoras ~46.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Iraklis Yerolakkou \u2193 -3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Halkanoras, but sharp money moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.07,
"hero_label": "Halkanoras",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Iraklis Yerolakkou odds shortened \u2193 -3.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Iraklis Yerolakkou, with odds shortening by 3.2%. Confirmation remains limited (1/3 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Halkanoras. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Halkanoras. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Iraklis Yerolakkou, with odds shortening by 3.2%. Confirmation remains limited (1/3 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Halkanoras above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Iraklis Yerolakkou has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 3.2%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/3), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.07,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Halkanoras",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Halkanoras higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.07,
"edge_pp": -6.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Halkanoras",
"market_prob_pct": 46.01,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.09,
"edge_pp": 3.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.39,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.98,
"edge_pp": 2.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Iraklis Yerolakkou",
"market_prob_pct": 27.6,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Halkanoras (46.0%).",
"Iraklis Yerolakkou has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.2%, 1/3).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Halkanoras, Market \u2192 Halkanoras, Recent sharp money \u2192 Iraklis Yerolakkou.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.28,
"closing_odds": 1.95,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.28,
"entry_odds": 1.95,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2
}
],
"books_total": 3,
"breadth_display": "1/3",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 25h 23m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Iraklis Yerolakkou (swing 3.32 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.00) \u2014 net 3.2% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.25",
"3.12",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.32 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 25h 23m",
"pick_team": "Iraklis Yerolakkou",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.32"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.25,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,10.8 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Iraklis Yerolakkou",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Market moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Iraklis Yerolakkou",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/3",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Iraklis Yerolakkou",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_team_name": "Iraklis Yerolakkou",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "iraklis-yerolakkou",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Iraklis Yerolakkou",
"away_team_id": 6405,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6405.webp",
"away_team_name": "Iraklis Yerolakkou",
"away_team_public_id": "4yxLBuZ3iKnRZJ",
"away_team_slug": "iraklis-yerolakkou",
"country_code": "CY",
"country_display_name": "Cyprus",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cy.svg",
"country_id": 42,
"country_name": "Cyprus",
"fixture_id": 1609507,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Cyprus",
"home_team_display_name": "Halkanoras",
"home_team_id": 3429,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3429.webp",
"home_team_name": "Halkanoras",
"home_team_public_id": "2xDnEb9Fagl10t",
"home_team_slug": "halkanoras",
"ht.home_team_slug": "halkanoras",
"league_country": "Cyprus",
"league_country_display": "Cyprus",
"league_display_name": "H\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec S\u00edp",
"league_id": 319,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/319.webp",
"league_name": "H\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec S\u00edp",
"league_public_id": "2Xyd7CYDDkvwzo",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 16:00:00",
"public_id": "4OL6ugmSXjofPt",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2867,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0753,
"implied_prob": 0.276,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.276,
"draw": 0.2639,
"home": 0.4601
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.2845
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2861,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0728,
"implied_prob": 0.2639,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.276,
"draw": 0.2639,
"home": 0.4601
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2727
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5456,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.033,
"ev": -0.1671,
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.276,
"draw": 0.2639,
"home": 0.4601
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.4271
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": -0.0021,
"ev": -0.0069,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0006,
"ev": 0.0022,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.1131,
"ev": -0.2206,
"implied_prob": 0.5128,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1451,
"alpha_yes": 0.1451,
"best_no_odd": 1.87,
"best_yes_odd": 1.89,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0525,
"edge_yes": 0.0525,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1454,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0916,
"ev_yes": 0.0263,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0635,
"implied_no": 0.5095,
"implied_yes": 0.4905,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1451,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.0916,
"implied_prob": 0.5095,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5019
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1451,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0635,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4981
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.5019,
"p_final_yes": 0.4981,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2111,
"alpha_under": 0.2322,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.08,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.64,
"edge_over": 0.0422,
"edge_under": -0.0422,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0649,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0987,
"implied_over": 0.4398,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4409,
"implied_under": 0.5602,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5591,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4495
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5496
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4495,
"p_final_under": 0.5496,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Halkanoras at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Halkanoras as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Halkanoras",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Iraklis Yerolakkou, but the model still strongly favours Halkanoras.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1671,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2206,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0363,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4398,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.033,
"ev": -0.1671,
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Halkanoras"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1451,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0076,
"market_prob": 0.4905,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1451,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.0916,
"implied_prob": 0.5095,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5019
},
"p_final": 0.4981,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0635,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1451,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0635,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0525,
"ev": 0.0263,
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"market_prob": 0.4409,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
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"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0649,
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},
"p_final": 0.4495,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0649,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5496
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0422,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4398,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1609507,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0363,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3056,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3997
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Iraklis Yerolakkou",
"home": "Halkanoras"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1671,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2206,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1609507,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T15:58:19.960901+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Halkanoras & Iraklis Yerolakkou!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Hạng Nhì Síp — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethnikos Achna | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Enosis | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | ASIL Lysi | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Iraklis Yerolakkou | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Doxa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | APEA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | PAEEK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Polemidion | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Spartakos Kitiou | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Ermis | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Digenis Morphou | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | MEAP Nisou | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Ayia Napa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Akritas | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Halkanoras | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Anagennisi Deryneia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethnikos Achna | 2 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 | Doxa | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | ASIL Lysi | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | Spartakos Kitiou | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 | APEA | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 | PAEEK | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 7 | Enosis | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 8 | Iraklis Yerolakkou | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 |
| 9 | Ermis | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Ayia Napa | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 11 | Polemidion | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Akritas | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | MEAP Nisou | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Anagennisi Deryneia | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Digenis Morphou | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Halkanoras | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
