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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Leicester City WFC Leicester City WFC ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.8
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Leicester City WFC win · Sheffield United Nữ 0–1 Leicester City WFC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"away_win_prob": 0.3946,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.53,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.22,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"home_win_prob": 0.3103,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Leicester City WFC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Leicester City WFC"
},
"away_xg": 1.39,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Leicester City WFC",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1062,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5011,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 39.5,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 31.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 1.8
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.8,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Leicester City WFC Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.0,
"market_odds": 1.8,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 10.9,
"prob_edge": -16.0,
"value_pct": -28.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 75.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 70.2,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.39,
"home_expected": 1.21,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sheffield United N\u1eef or Draw",
"prob": 60.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sheffield United N\u1eef or Leicester City WFC",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Leicester City WFC",
"prob": 69.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Sheffield United N\u1eef or Leicester City WFC",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.5,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 31.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Leicester City WFC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 18.0,
"implied_prob": 25.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.5,
"odds": 4.0
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Leicester City WFC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 50.11,
"draw": 22.55,
"home": 27.33
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 12:59:31",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 12:34:17",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sheffield United N\u1eef",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.33,
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.55,
"gap_pp": 6.92,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.11,
"gap_pp": -10.62,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.14,
"gap_pp": -8.94,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.86,
"gap_pp": 8.94,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.3,
"early": 3.3,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.33,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.33,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.0,
"early": 4.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.55,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.55,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.8,
"early": 1.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.11,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.65,
"early": 1.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.14,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.2,
"early": 2.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.86,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.86,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.0625,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.21,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0175,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4282,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.5718,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5526
},
"p_final": 0.4457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1137,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0418,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0418,
"implied_prob": 0.4282,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4457
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.5,
"text": "-20.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.0,
"text": "+14.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1396,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10275.64,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1177,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0051,
"edge_pp": 0.5,
"market_prob": 0.4133,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1177,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0794,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4185
},
"p_final": 0.4185,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0054,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0794,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1619,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.5867,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5796
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0054,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1584,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.8,
"text": "-15.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0054,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 5204.32,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1944,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.4,
"text": "-19.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5011,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0483,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.8,
"text": "-4.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2892,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Leicester City WFC",
"sort_key": 1787.925,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.65,
"hero_label": "Leicester City WFC",
"market_prob_pct": 50.1,
"market_team": "Leicester City WFC",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Leicester City WFC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Leicester City WFC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Leicester City WFC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.179,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Leicester City WFC at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Leicester City WFC as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Leicester City WFC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Leicester City WFC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +18% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1609375 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Leicester City WFC).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1944,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5011,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2892,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "3/3",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.65,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.65,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Sheffield United N\u1eef",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Leicester City WFC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Leicester City WFC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.179,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Leicester City WFC at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Leicester City WFC as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Leicester City WFC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Leicester City WFC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +18% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1609375 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Leicester City WFC).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1944,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5011,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2892,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sheffield United N\u1eef 1.21 xG vs Leicester City WFC 1.39 \u2192 Leicester City WFC 39.5%",
"Market: Leicester City WFC ~50.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Sheffield United N\u1eef +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Leicester City WFC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.7,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Sheffield United N\u1eef",
"market_prob": 27.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.96,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.65,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Leicester City WFC",
"market_prob": 50.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.97,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.17,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.97,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.83,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.37,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.37,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Leicester City WFC",
"market_prob_pct": 50.11,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Sheffield United N\u1eef"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Leicester City WFC\u0027s win probability at 50.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 10.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.65,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Leicester City WFC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.6,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Leicester City WFC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sheffield United N\u1eef 1.21 xG vs Leicester City WFC 1.39 \u2192 Leicester City WFC 39.5%",
"Market: Leicester City WFC ~50.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Sheffield United N\u1eef +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Leicester City WFC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.65,
"hero_label": "Leicester City WFC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Leicester City WFC is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Leicester City WFC than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Leicester City WFC than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Leicester City WFC than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Leicester City WFC is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Leicester City WFC more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Leicester City WFC (pricing gap 10.7 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.65,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Leicester City WFC",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Leicester City WFC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.7,
"edge_pp": 3.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sheffield United N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 27.33,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.96,
"edge_pp": 6.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.55,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.65,
"edge_pp": -10.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Leicester City WFC",
"market_prob_pct": 50.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Leicester City WFC than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Leicester City WFC (50.1%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Leicester City WFC, Market \u2192 Leicester City WFC, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.56,
"closing_odds": 1.8,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.56,
"entry_odds": 1.8,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Sheffield United N\u1eef",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Sheffield United N\u1eef",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Leicester City WFC",
"away_team_id": 15404,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15404.webp",
"away_team_name": "Leicester City WFC",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Leicester City WFC",
"away_team_public_id": "1EX7SDD9Tx6oac",
"away_team_slug": "leicester-city-wfc",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1609375,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Sheffield United N\u1eef",
"home_team_id": 15407,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15407.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sheffield United N\u1eef",
"home_team_public_id": "3uBt5lTKzwJ99J",
"home_team_slug": "sheffield-united-w",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t N\u1eef",
"league_id": 699,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/699.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t N\u1eef",
"league_public_id": "2oGS35nfcWcm34",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 13:00:00",
"public_id": "2GSoyfxo82j4CF",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sheffield",
"venue_name": "Bramall Lane"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5044,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0536,
"ev": -0.1944,
"implied_prob": 0.5011,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5011,
"draw": 0.2255,
"home": 0.2733
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.4476
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1792,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.2255,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5011,
"draw": 0.2255,
"home": 0.2733
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2379
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2834,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0634,
"implied_prob": 0.2733,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5011,
"draw": 0.2255,
"home": 0.2733
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.2838
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.1606,
"ev": -0.2891,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.0447,
"ev": 0.179,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.3,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": 0.024,
"implied_prob": 0.303,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1177,
"alpha_yes": 0.1619,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.55,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0437,
"edge_yes": -0.0437,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0054,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0794,
"ev_yes": -0.1584,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1016,
"implied_no": 0.4133,
"implied_yes": 0.5867,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1177,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0794,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4185
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1619,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.5867,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5796
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"p_final_no": 0.4185,
"p_final_yes": 0.5796,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2142,
"alpha_under": 0.1947,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.61,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.15,
"edge_over": -0.0897,
"edge_under": 0.0897,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1104,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0418,
"implied_over": 0.5717,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5718,
"implied_under": 0.4283,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4282,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.5718,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5526
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0418,
"implied_prob": 0.4282,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4457
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5526,
"p_final_under": 0.4457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.179,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Leicester City WFC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.179,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Leicester City WFC at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Leicester City WFC as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Leicester City WFC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Leicester City WFC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +18% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1609375 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Leicester City WFC).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1944,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5011,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2892,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0536,
"ev": -0.1944,
"implied_prob": 0.5011,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Leicester City WFC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1177,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0051,
"market_prob": 0.4133,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1177,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0794,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4185
},
"p_final": 0.4185,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0794,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1619,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.5867,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5796
}
},
"edge": 0.0437,
"ev": 0.0054,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0175,
"market_prob": 0.4282,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.5718,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5526
},
"p_final": 0.4457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0418,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0418,
"implied_prob": 0.4282,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4457
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0897,
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4283,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1609375,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3949,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Leicester City WFC",
"home": "Sheffield United N\u1eef"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050619,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4283,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1944,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5011,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2892,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1609375,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T12:59:33.615847+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Giải Hạng Nhất Nữ — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United Nữ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Sunderland Nữ | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton Nữ | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Leicester City WFC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Southampton Nữ | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest Nữ | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Ipswich Town Nữ | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Bristol City W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Watford Nữ | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 10 | Burnley W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 11 | Durham W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Sheffield United Nữ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United Nữ | 3 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Sunderland Nữ | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton Nữ | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Bristol City W | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Leicester City WFC | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest Nữ | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 7 | Durham W | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 0 |
| 8 | Southampton Nữ | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 | Watford Nữ | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town Nữ | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Sheffield United Nữ | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 12 | Burnley W | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 |
