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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Casarano Casarano ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.52
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Casarano win · Casarano 1–0 Audace Cerignola
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "9cf709d13530b831e8a82fce55c277e290b158bab2ad157ec0dc12902ce36ee1",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.22,
"away_win_prob": 0.3148,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.18,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.57,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.38,
"home_win_prob": 0.3897,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Audace Cerignola and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Audace Cerignola"
},
"away_xg": 1.22,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Casarano",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0156,
"edge_gap": 0.0747,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4053,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.5,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 39.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.32
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.32,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Casarano Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.47,
"market_odds": 2.32,
"model_odds": 2.57,
"overround": 6.4,
"prob_edge": -4.2,
"value_pct": -9.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 70.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 74.8,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.22,
"home_expected": 1.38,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Casarano or Draw",
"prob": 68.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Casarano or Audace Cerignola",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Audace Cerignola",
"prob": 61.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Casarano or Audace Cerignola",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.5,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Casarano"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 3.8,
"implied_prob": 28.4,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.5,
"odds": 3.52
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Audace Cerignola",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 32.76,
"draw": 26.71,
"home": 40.53
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 18:59:21",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 18:29:29",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Casarano",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.53,
"gap_pp": -1.56,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.71,
"gap_pp": 2.83,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.54
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.76,
"gap_pp": -1.27,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.69,
"gap_pp": -9.49,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.31,
"gap_pp": 9.49,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.32,
"early": 2.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.53,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.52,
"early": 3.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.71,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.87,
"early": 2.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.76,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.65,
"early": 1.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.69,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.25,
"early": 2.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.31,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.31,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.38,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0097,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4717,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2303,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0941,
"implied_prob": 0.5283,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5176
},
"p_final": 0.4814,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0153,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0565,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.4717,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4814
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1228,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.3,
"text": "-12.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.036,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.4,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0062,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"market_prob": 0.427,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0728,
"implied_prob": 0.427,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4333
},
"p_final": 0.4333,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0242,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0728,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2367,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0069,
"ev": -0.0971,
"implied_prob": 0.573,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5661
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.026,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.6,
"text": "+2.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0915,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.2,
"text": "-9.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.026,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 5220.8,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano.",
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0757,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.6,
"text": "-7.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0311,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.1,
"text": "-3.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0959,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Casarano",
"sort_key": 1792.225,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"alert_team": "Casarano",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.83,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 40.5,
"market_team": "Casarano",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Casarano",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 7,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0398,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Casarano at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Casarano as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Casarano",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0757,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4310344827586207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0959,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.83,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.83,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"steam_team": "Casarano",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0398,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Casarano at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Casarano as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Casarano",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0757,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4310344827586207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0959,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Casarano 1.38 xG vs Audace Cerignola 1.22 \u2192 Casarano 39.0%",
"Market: Casarano ~40.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Casarano odds \u2191 +2.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Casarano, but the market has moved away from Casarano.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.56,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Casarano",
"market_prob": 40.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.83,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.28,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Audace Cerignola",
"market_prob": 32.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.5,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.7,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.5,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.3,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.96,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.36,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.96,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.64,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.71,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Casarano"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.83,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Casarano",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.5,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Casarano 1.38 xG vs Audace Cerignola 1.22 \u2192 Casarano 39.0%",
"Market: Casarano ~40.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Casarano odds \u2191 +2.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Casarano, but the market has moved away from Casarano.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.83,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Casarano odds lengthened \u2191 +2.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Casarano has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.3%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Casarano has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.3%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Casarano has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.83,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.8,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.8,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.56,
"edge_pp": -1.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Casarano",
"market_prob_pct": 40.53,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.83,
"edge_pp": 2.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.71,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.28,
"edge_pp": -1.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Audace Cerignola",
"market_prob_pct": 32.76,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Casarano (40.5%).",
"Casarano odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.3%, 2/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Casarano, Market \u2192 Casarano, while Casarano odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.41,
"closing_odds": 3.52,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.41,
"entry_odds": 3.52,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Casarano (swing 2.34 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.25) \u2014 net 2.3% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.32",
"2.26",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.34 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Casarano",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.34"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.32,
2.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.5",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.32"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Casarano",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Market moved away from Casarano while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Casarano",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 7,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Casarano",
"steam_score": 7,
"steam_team_name": "Casarano",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "audace-cerignola",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Audace Cerignola",
"away_team_id": 9539,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9539.webp",
"away_team_name": "Audace Cerignola",
"away_team_public_id": "0UHBWxPc5773G5",
"away_team_slug": "audace-cerignola",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1609033,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Casarano",
"home_team_id": 9542,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9542.webp",
"home_team_name": "Casarano",
"home_team_public_id": "072frejmC6cH9y",
"home_team_slug": "casarano",
"ht.home_team_slug": "casarano",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie C - Girone C",
"league_id": 943,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/943.webp",
"league_name": "Serie C - Girone C",
"league_public_id": "3NTvM54zqeDQSO",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 19:00:00",
"public_id": "0vwPe38Y6Tdmpz",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Casarano",
"venue_name": "Stadio Giuseppe Capozza"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4414,
"best_odd": 2.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0056,
"ev": -0.0758,
"implied_prob": 0.3276,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3276,
"draw": 0.2671,
"home": 0.4053
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.322
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2873,
"best_odd": 3.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0081,
"ev": -0.0311,
"implied_prob": 0.2671,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3276,
"draw": 0.2671,
"home": 0.4053
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2752
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4395,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0069,
"ev": -0.0757,
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3276,
"draw": 0.2671,
"home": 0.4053
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.3984
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.87,
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.3484,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.52,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": 0.0398,
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.0414,
"ev": -0.096,
"implied_prob": 0.431,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2152,
"alpha_yes": 0.2367,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0296,
"edge_yes": -0.0296,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.026,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0728,
"ev_yes": -0.0915,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0971,
"implied_no": 0.4264,
"implied_yes": 0.5736,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0728,
"implied_prob": 0.427,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4333
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2367,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0069,
"ev": -0.0971,
"implied_prob": 0.573,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5661
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4333,
"p_final_yes": 0.5661,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2303,
"alpha_under": 0.2094,
"best_over_odd": 1.82,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.75,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.96,
"edge_over": -0.045,
"edge_under": 0.045,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1228,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0941,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0565,
"implied_over": 0.527,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5283,
"implied_under": 0.473,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4717,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2303,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0941,
"implied_prob": 0.5283,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5176
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.4717,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4814
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5176,
"p_final_under": 0.4814,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0398,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0398,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Casarano at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Casarano as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Casarano",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Casarano, but the model still strongly favours Casarano.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0757,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4310344827586207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0959,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.036,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.473,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0069,
"ev": -0.0757,
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Casarano"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0062,
"market_prob": 0.427,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0728,
"implied_prob": 0.427,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4333
},
"p_final": 0.4333,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0728,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2367,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0069,
"ev": -0.0971,
"implied_prob": 0.573,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5661
}
},
"edge": 0.0296,
"ev": 0.026,
"implied_prob": 0.4264,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0097,
"market_prob": 0.4717,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2303,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0941,
"implied_prob": 0.5283,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5176
},
"p_final": 0.4814,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0565,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.4717,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4814
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.045,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.473,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1609033,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.036,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Audace Cerignola",
"home": "Casarano"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0757,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4310344827586207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0959,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1609033,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T18:59:23.212566+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Casarano & Audace Cerignola!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Serie C - Girone C — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sorrento | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Audace Cerignola | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | AZ Picerno | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Bari | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Potenza | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Casertana | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | SS Monopoli | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Casarano | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Barletta | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Salernitana | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Scafatese | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Cavese | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Savoia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Foggia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Inter U23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 16 | Team Altamura | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Catania | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 | Crotone | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Audace Cerignola | 4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Casertana | 4 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | AZ Picerno | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Potenza | 4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Barletta | 4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | Casarano | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Bari | 4 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 8 | Salernitana | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Scafatese | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Sorrento | 4 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 12 |
| 11 | Savoia | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Catania | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Inter U23 | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Giugliano | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 1 |
| 15 | Cavese | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | SS Monopoli | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 | Crotone | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | |
| 18 | Foggia | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 | Team Altamura | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 4 |
| 20 | Cosenza | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 1 |
