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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Città di Campobasso Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.52
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Grosseto 2–2 Città di Campobasso
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.38,
"away_win_prob": 0.3897,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.57,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.18,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.22,
"home_win_prob": 0.3148,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Grosseto or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Grosseto"
},
"away_xg": 1.38,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0238,
"edge_gap": 0.0747,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3659,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 39.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 31.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.52
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.52,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.73,
"market_odds": 2.52,
"model_odds": 2.57,
"overround": 8.5,
"prob_edge": -0.8,
"value_pct": -1.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 74.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 70.5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.38,
"home_expected": 1.22,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Grosseto or Draw",
"prob": 61.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Grosseto or Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"prob": 68.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Grosseto or Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.0,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 31.5,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -1.9,
"implied_prob": 39.7,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso Win",
"model_prob": 38.9,
"odds": 2.52
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 36.59,
"draw": 30.94,
"home": 32.47
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 16:29:12",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 16:02:14",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Grosseto",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.47,
"gap_pp": -0.98,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.94,
"gap_pp": -1.4,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.54
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.59,
"gap_pp": 2.38,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.82,
"gap_pp": 5.38,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.18,
"gap_pp": -5.38,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.84,
"early": 2.84,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.47,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.98,
"early": 2.98,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.94,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.94,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.52,
"early": 2.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.59,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.59,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.19,
"early": 2.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.82,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.64,
"early": 1.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.18,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.22,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.065,
"edge": 0.008,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4441,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.0663,
"implied_prob": 0.4441,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4522
},
"p_final": 0.4522,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0047,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0663,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2334,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.0974,
"implied_prob": 0.5559,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.547
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0556,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.6,
"text": "+5.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0676,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.8,
"text": "-6.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0556,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10200.04,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0076,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.5082,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.0994,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4842
},
"p_final": 0.5158,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0208,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0715,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0715,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5158
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1108,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.1,
"text": "-11.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0045,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.4,
"text": "-0.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0045,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 4049.37,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0519,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.2,
"text": "-5.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3659,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0519,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.2,
"text": "-5.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.018,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"sort_key": 1787.025,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"alert_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.38,
"hero_label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"market_prob_pct": 36.6,
"market_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0556,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0556,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 95,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "95 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 91,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0519,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3659,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.018,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 91,
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.38,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.38,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.38,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.38 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"steam_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0556,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0556,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 95,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "95 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 91,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0519,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3659,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.018,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Grosseto 1.22 xG vs Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso 1.38 \u2192 Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso 39.0%",
"Market: Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso ~36.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso \u2193 -4.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.99,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Grosseto",
"market_prob": 32.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.4,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.38,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"market_prob": 36.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.54,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.54,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.26,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.14,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.26,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.86,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"market_prob_pct": 36.59,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.38,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.4,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 91,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Grosseto 1.22 xG vs Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso 1.38 \u2192 Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso 39.0%",
"Market: Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso ~36.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso \u2193 -4.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.38,
"hero_label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso odds shortened \u2193 -4.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso (\u2193 -4.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.38,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.99,
"edge_pp": -0.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Grosseto",
"market_prob_pct": 32.47,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.4,
"edge_pp": -1.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.94,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.38,
"edge_pp": 2.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"market_prob_pct": 36.59,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso (36.6%).",
"However, Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -4.0%, 8/8).",
"Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 39.68,
"closing_odds": 2.52,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 39.68,
"entry_odds": 2.52,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso (4.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.52",
"2.46",
"2.40"
],
"display": "2.66 \u2192 2.38 \u2192 2.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 44m",
"pick_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.66"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.5,
2.52,
2.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,3.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.52"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.5,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 8/8 sportsbooks on Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"pick_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "citta-di-campobasso",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"away_team_id": 9510,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9510.webp",
"away_team_name": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"away_team_public_id": "25BoTNhoCeVABS",
"away_team_slug": "citta-di-campobasso",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1608651,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Grosseto",
"home_team_id": 9499,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9499.webp",
"home_team_name": "Grosseto",
"home_team_public_id": "0kxuq7cLPnpJf5",
"home_team_slug": "grosseto",
"ht.home_team_slug": "grosseto",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie C - Girone B",
"league_id": 942,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/942.webp",
"league_name": "Serie C - Girone B",
"league_public_id": "60hh7BGqSoxefa",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 16:30:00",
"public_id": "5NnqOII9llW4VW",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Grosseto",
"venue_name": "Stadio Carlo Zecchini"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.434,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0519,
"implied_prob": 0.3659,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3659,
"draw": 0.3094,
"home": 0.3247
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.3762
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4405,
"best_odd": 2.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0062,
"ev": -0.0963,
"implied_prob": 0.3094,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3659,
"draw": 0.3094,
"home": 0.3247
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.3032
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4434,
"best_odd": 2.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0043,
"ev": -0.0902,
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3659,
"draw": 0.3094,
"home": 0.3247
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.3203
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": -0.0072,
"ev": -0.018,
"implied_prob": 0.3968,
"model_prob": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.98,
"edge": -0.0402,
"ev": -0.1197,
"implied_prob": 0.3356,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": -0.0372,
"ev": -0.1056,
"implied_prob": 0.3521,
"model_prob": 0.3149
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2129,
"alpha_yes": 0.2129,
"best_no_odd": 1.95,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0326,
"edge_yes": 0.0326,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1108,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0994,
"ev_yes": -0.0045,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0715,
"implied_no": 0.4886,
"implied_yes": 0.5114,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.0994,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4842
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0715,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5158
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4842,
"p_final_yes": 0.5158,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2122,
"alpha_under": 0.2334,
"best_over_odd": 2.19,
"best_under_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.065,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.65,
"edge_over": 0.0354,
"edge_under": -0.0354,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0556,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0663,
"ev_under": -0.0676,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0974,
"implied_over": 0.4466,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4441,
"implied_under": 0.5534,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5559,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.0663,
"implied_prob": 0.4441,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4522
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2334,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.0974,
"implied_prob": 0.5559,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.547
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4522,
"p_final_under": 0.547,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0556,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0556,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0556,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0556,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0556,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 95,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "95 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 91,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0519,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3659,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.018,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0519,
"implied_prob": 0.3659,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0076,
"market_prob": 0.5082,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.0994,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4842
},
"p_final": 0.5158,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0715,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0715,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5158
}
},
"edge": 0.0326,
"ev": -0.0045,
"implied_prob": 0.5114,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.065,
"edge": 0.008,
"market_prob": 0.4441,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.0663,
"implied_prob": 0.4441,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4522
},
"p_final": 0.4522,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0663,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2334,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.0974,
"implied_prob": 0.5559,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.547
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0354,
"ev": 0.0556,
"implied_prob": 0.4466,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1608651,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0556,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3897,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3149
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"home": "Grosseto"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.018759,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0556,
"implied_prob": 0.4466,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0519,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3659,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.018,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1608651,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T16:29:13.925320+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Grosseto & Città di Campobasso!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Serie C - Girone B — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Reggiana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Livorno | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Città di Campobasso | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Torres | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Forli | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Perugia | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Atalanta II | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Pescara | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Ostia Mare | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 14 | Gubbio | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Pineto | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 16 | Latina | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 17 | Vado | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 18 | Vis Pesaro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 19 | Pianese | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 20 | Sambenedettese | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 7 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 19 |
| 2 | Grosseto | 7 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 15 |
| 3 | Forli | 7 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 10 |
| 4 | Ravenna | 7 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 17 |
| 5 | Reggiana | 7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 14 |
| 6 | Città di Campobasso | 7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 11 |
| 7 | Livorno | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Pescara | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Gubbio | 7 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Torres | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Ostia Mare | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Sambenedettese | 7 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 2 |
| 14 | Vis Pesaro | 7 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 4 |
| 15 | Atalanta II | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Pineto | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Perugia | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Latina | 6 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | Vado | 7 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 20 | Pianese | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
