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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Treviso Treviso ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.35
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Treviso win · Treviso 2–1 Pro Vercelli
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"away_win_prob": 0.3103,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.22,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.53,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"home_win_prob": 0.3946,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Treviso or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Treviso"
},
"away_xg": 1.21,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Treviso",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0034,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3984,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 39.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.33
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.33,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Treviso Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.51,
"market_odds": 2.33,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 7.7,
"prob_edge": -3.4,
"value_pct": -7.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 70.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 75.1,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.21,
"home_expected": 1.39,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Treviso or Draw",
"prob": 69.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Treviso or Pro Vercelli",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Pro Vercelli",
"prob": 60.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Treviso or Pro Vercelli",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.0,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Treviso"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 3.9,
"implied_prob": 29.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Pro Vercelli Win",
"model_prob": 31.0,
"odds": 3.35
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Pro Vercelli",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 27.71,
"draw": 32.45,
"home": 39.84
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 13:02:49",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 12:33:51",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Treviso",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.84,
"gap_pp": -0.34,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.45,
"gap_pp": -2.98,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.71,
"gap_pp": 3.32,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.16,
"gap_pp": 11.04,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.84,
"gap_pp": -11.04,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.33,
"early": 2.33,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.84,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.86,
"early": 2.86,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.45,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.35,
"early": 3.35,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.71,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.52,
"early": 2.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.16,
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"implied_early_pct": 37.16,
"kind": "ou_o"
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{
"closing": 1.49,
"early": 1.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.84,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.2,
"ev": -0.25,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.1667,
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.39,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1937,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.018,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.4501,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.1148,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5301
},
"p_final": 0.4681,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1077,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.045,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1937,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.045,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4681
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2094,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.9,
"text": "-20.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1403,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.0,
"text": "+14.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1403,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10276.27,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1523,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.445,
"edge": 0.0156,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.3794,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1523,
"best_odd": 2.445,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0341,
"implied_prob": 0.3794,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3951
},
"p_final": 0.3951,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1785,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0341,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0215,
"ev": -0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.6206,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5991
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2146,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.5,
"text": "+21.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2146,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10193.14,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso.",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0754,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.5,
"text": "-7.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0401,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0799,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Treviso",
"sort_key": 1789.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.32,
"hero_label": "Pro Vercelli",
"market_prob_pct": 39.8,
"market_team": "Treviso",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Treviso",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2146,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2146,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Treviso at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Treviso as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Treviso",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0754,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4291845493562232,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0799,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.32,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.32,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2146,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2146,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Treviso at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Treviso as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Treviso",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0754,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4291845493562232,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0799,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Treviso 1.39 xG vs Pro Vercelli 1.21 \u2192 Treviso 39.5%",
"Market: Treviso ~39.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -3.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Treviso, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.38,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Treviso",
"market_prob": 39.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.94,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.32,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Pro Vercelli",
"market_prob": 27.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.35,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.35,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.29,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.01,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.29,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.99,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Pro Vercelli",
"market_prob_pct": 27.71,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.32,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Treviso",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.3,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Treviso 1.39 xG vs Pro Vercelli 1.21 \u2192 Treviso 39.5%",
"Market: Treviso ~39.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -3.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Treviso, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.32,
"hero_label": "Pro Vercelli",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -3.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 3.3%.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 3.3%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 3.3%.",
"Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 3.3%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 3.3%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.32,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Pro Vercelli",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.38,
"edge_pp": -0.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Treviso",
"market_prob_pct": 39.84,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.94,
"edge_pp": -2.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.45,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.32,
"edge_pp": 3.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Pro Vercelli",
"market_prob_pct": 27.71,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 3.3%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Treviso (39.8%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.3%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Treviso, Market \u2192 Treviso, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.85,
"closing_odds": 3.35,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.85,
"entry_odds": 3.35,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.8
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 48h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Draw (3.3%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.00",
"2.93",
"2.86"
],
"display": "3.10 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 48h 59m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
2.86,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,12.9",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.86"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 6/8 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "pro-vercelli",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Pro Vercelli",
"away_team_id": 526,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/526.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pro Vercelli",
"away_team_public_id": "3H0ahG21KDFLRf",
"away_team_slug": "pro-vercelli",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1608270,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Treviso",
"home_team_id": 22319,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22319.webp",
"home_team_name": "Treviso",
"home_team_public_id": "4SJN0D262fvxeO",
"home_team_slug": "treviso",
"ht.home_team_slug": "treviso",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie C - Girone A",
"league_id": 138,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/138.webp",
"league_name": "Serie C - Girone A",
"league_public_id": "2TIxevBvcuUZGk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 13:00:00",
"public_id": "0nfuWfsPgpkF4F",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Treviso",
"venue_name": "Stadio Omobono Tenni"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.285,
"best_odd": 3.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0401,
"implied_prob": 0.2771,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2771,
"draw": 0.3245,
"home": 0.3984
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.2866
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4299,
"best_odd": 2.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0128,
"ev": -0.1084,
"implied_prob": 0.3245,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2771,
"draw": 0.3245,
"home": 0.3984
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.3117
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4477,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0015,
"ev": -0.0754,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2771,
"draw": 0.3245,
"home": 0.3984
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.3968
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.35,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": 0.0395,
"implied_prob": 0.2985,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.86,
"edge": -0.0549,
"ev": -0.157,
"implied_prob": 0.3497,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": -0.0342,
"ev": -0.0798,
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.213,
"alpha_yes": 0.1937,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0929,
"edge_yes": 0.0929,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2094,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1148,
"ev_yes": 0.1403,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.045,
"implied_no": 0.5499,
"implied_yes": 0.4501,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.1148,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5301
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1937,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.045,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4681
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5301,
"p_final_yes": 0.4681,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1523,
"alpha_under": 0.2094,
"best_over_odd": 2.52,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.445,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.495,
"edge_over": 0.1035,
"edge_under": -0.1035,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2146,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0341,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1044,
"implied_over": 0.3785,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3794,
"implied_under": 0.6215,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6206,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1523,
"best_odd": 2.445,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0341,
"implied_prob": 0.3794,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3951
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0215,
"ev": -0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.6206,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5991
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3951,
"p_final_under": 0.5991,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2146,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2146,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2146,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2146,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2146,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Treviso at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Treviso as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Treviso",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Treviso.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0754,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4291845493562232,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0799,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0015,
"ev": -0.0754,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Treviso"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1937,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.018,
"market_prob": 0.4501,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.1148,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5301
},
"p_final": 0.4681,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.045,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1937,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.045,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4681
}
},
"edge": 0.0929,
"ev": 0.1403,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1523,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.445,
"edge": 0.0156,
"market_prob": 0.3794,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1523,
"best_odd": 2.445,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0341,
"implied_prob": 0.3794,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3951
},
"p_final": 0.3951,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0341,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0215,
"ev": -0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.6206,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5991
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1035,
"ev": 0.2146,
"implied_prob": 0.3785,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1608270,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2146,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2146,
"implied_prob": 0.3785,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2146,
"implied_prob": 0.3785,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pro Vercelli",
"home": "Treviso"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.076183,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1403,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0754,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4291845493562232,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0799,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1608270,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T13:02:50.736377+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Treviso & Pro Vercelli!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Serie C - Girone A — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Ospitaletto | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Trento | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Treviso | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Alcione | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Albinoleffe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Lumezzane | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Lecco | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Desenzano Calvina | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Pergolettese | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | Athletic Carpi | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 15 | Folgore Caratese | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 16 | Juventus U23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 17 | Novara | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 18 | Pro Vercelli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 20 | Renate | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 7 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Ospitaletto | 7 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 14 |
| 3 | Union Brescia | 7 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 15 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 7 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Albinoleffe | 7 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 | Alcione | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Athletic Carpi | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 6 |
| 8 | Trento | 7 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 13 |
| 9 | Treviso | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 10 | Folgore Caratese | 7 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Lumezzane | 7 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Juventus U23 | 7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 7 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 10 |
| 14 | Novara | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Giana Erminio | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Pro Vercelli | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Renate | 7 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2 |
| 18 | Lecco | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 19 | Desenzano Calvina | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 20 | Pergolettese | 7 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
