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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Giana Erminio Dolomiti Bellunesi ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.25
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Dolomiti Bellunesi win · Giana Erminio 1–2 Dolomiti Bellunesi
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "4803a30c5d26346f8f6bd0235d3e1426e711efd7d385fb9f7df0107ef88b9581",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.16,
"away_win_prob": 0.2881,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.46,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2931,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.47,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.41,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.39,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.44,
"home_win_prob": 0.4188,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Dolomiti Bellunesi",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Dolomiti Bellunesi"
},
"away_xg": 1.16,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Giana Erminio",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0023,
"edge_gap": 0.1252,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4208,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 28.8,
"draw": 29.3,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.23
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.23,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Giana Erminio Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.38,
"market_odds": 2.23,
"model_odds": 2.39,
"overround": 6.6,
"prob_edge": -3.0,
"value_pct": -6.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 68.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 76.3,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.16,
"home_expected": 1.44,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Giana Erminio or Draw",
"prob": 71.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Giana Erminio or Dolomiti Bellunesi",
"prob": 70.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi",
"prob": 58.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Giana Erminio or Draw",
"pick_prob": 71.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 28.8,
"draw_pct": 29.3,
"home_pct": 41.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Giana Erminio"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -6.7,
"implied_prob": 44.8,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Giana Erminio Win",
"model_prob": 41.8,
"odds": 2.23
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Dolomiti Bellunesi",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.05,
"draw": 28.87,
"home": 42.08
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 12:59:21",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 12:34:05",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Giana Erminio",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.08,
"gap_pp": -0.23,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.85
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.87,
"gap_pp": 0.46,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.33
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.05,
"gap_pp": -0.23,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 28.82
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.79,
"gap_pp": 9.41,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.21,
"gap_pp": -9.41,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.23,
"early": 2.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.08,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.25,
"early": 3.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.87,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.87,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.23,
"early": 3.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.05,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.43,
"early": 2.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.79,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.54,
"early": 1.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.21,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.21,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.0,
"ev": -0.194,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.44,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1923,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0186,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.4432,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2116,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0205,
"ev": -0.1205,
"implied_prob": 0.5568,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.5363
},
"p_final": 0.4619,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1124,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0486,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1923,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0486,
"implied_prob": 0.4432,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.4619
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2318,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.2,
"text": "-23.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.188,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 18.8,
"text": "+18.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.188,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"sort_key": 10319.2,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1532,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0152,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3828,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1532,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0407,
"implied_prob": 0.3828,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.398
},
"p_final": 0.398,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1616,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0407,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2107,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.6172,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5963
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.205,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 20.5,
"text": "+20.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.205,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10184.5,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio.",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.064,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.4,
"text": "-6.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4208,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0572,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.7,
"text": "-5.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0667,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Giana Erminio",
"sort_key": 1785.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"alert_team": "Giana Erminio",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 0.44,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 42.1,
"market_team": "Giana Erminio",
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_team": "Giana Erminio",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Giana Erminio at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Giana Erminio as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Giana Erminio",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.064,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4208,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4484304932735426,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0667,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.44,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 0.44,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.16,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.44,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.44,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.44 \u00b7 Away xG 1.16 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"steam_team": "Giana Erminio",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Giana Erminio at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Giana Erminio as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Giana Erminio",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.064,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4208,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4484304932735426,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0667,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Giana Erminio 1.44 xG vs Dolomiti Bellunesi 1.16 \u2192 Giana Erminio 41.9%",
"Market: Giana Erminio ~42.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Giana Erminio odds \u2191 +9.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Giana Erminio, but the market has moved away from Giana Erminio.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.2,
"fair_prob": 41.88,
"label": "Giana Erminio",
"market_prob": 42.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.44,
"fair_prob": 29.31,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.24,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "Dolomiti Bellunesi",
"market_prob": 29.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.1,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.1,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.02,
"fair_prob": 54.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.98,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.02,
"fair_prob": 46.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.02,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 0.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.31,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.87,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Giana Erminio"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.44,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Giana Erminio",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.2,
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Giana Erminio 1.44 xG vs Dolomiti Bellunesi 1.16 \u2192 Giana Erminio 41.9%",
"Market: Giana Erminio ~42.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Giana Erminio odds \u2191 +9.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Giana Erminio, but the market has moved away from Giana Erminio.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 0.44,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Giana Erminio odds lengthened \u2191 +9.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Giana Erminio has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Giana Erminio \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Giana Erminio has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Giana Erminio \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Giana Erminio has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Giana Erminio."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.44,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.6 pp (at 41.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.6,
"max_prob_pct": 41.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 0.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.2,
"edge_pp": -0.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Giana Erminio",
"market_prob_pct": 42.08,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.44,
"edge_pp": 0.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.87,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.24,
"edge_pp": -0.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Dolomiti Bellunesi",
"market_prob_pct": 29.05,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Giana Erminio \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Giana Erminio (42.1%).",
"However, Giana Erminio has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +9.8%, 6/6) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Giana Erminio, Market \u2192 Giana Erminio, while Giana Erminio odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.77,
"closing_odds": 3.25,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.77,
"entry_odds": 3.25,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Giana Erminio (9.8%, 6/6) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.25",
"2.15",
"2.05"
],
"display": "2.25 \u2192 1.97 \u2192 2.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 30m",
"pick_team": "Giana Erminio",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.97"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.05,
2.23,
2.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,1.8 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.05,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/6 sportsbooks on Giana Erminio",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Giana Erminio",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"summary": "Market moved away from Giana Erminio while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Giana Erminio",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "Giana Erminio",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_team_name": "Giana Erminio",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 0.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Dolomiti Bellunesi",
"away_team_id": 17820,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17820.webp",
"away_team_name": "Dolomiti Bellunesi",
"away_team_public_id": "4tGg36psB3l7bm",
"away_team_slug": "dolomiti-bellunesi",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1608255,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Giana Erminio",
"home_team_id": 865,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/865.webp",
"home_team_name": "Giana Erminio",
"home_team_public_id": "2zkiwTwGHEjzVU",
"home_team_slug": "giana-erminio",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie C - Girone A",
"league_id": 138,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/138.webp",
"league_name": "Serie C - Girone A",
"league_public_id": "2TIxevBvcuUZGk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 13:00:00",
"public_id": "4f0qGTb0BKOUOs",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Gorgonzola",
"venue_name": "Stadio Citta di Gorgonzola"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.299,
"best_odd": 3.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0007,
"ev": -0.0639,
"implied_prob": 0.2905,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2905,
"draw": 0.2887,
"home": 0.4208
},
"model_prob": 0.2882,
"p_final": 0.2898
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2979,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0014,
"ev": -0.0572,
"implied_prob": 0.2887,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2905,
"draw": 0.2887,
"home": 0.4208
},
"model_prob": 0.2933,
"p_final": 0.2901
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4484,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.001,
"ev": -0.064,
"implied_prob": 0.4208,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2905,
"draw": 0.2887,
"home": 0.4208
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"p_final": 0.4197
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.23,
"edge": -0.0214,
"ev": -0.069,
"implied_prob": 0.3096,
"model_prob": 0.2882
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": -0.0144,
"ev": -0.0468,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.2933
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.0668,
"implied_prob": 0.4484,
"model_prob": 0.4185
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2116,
"alpha_yes": 0.1923,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1002,
"edge_yes": 0.1002,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2318,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1205,
"ev_yes": 0.188,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0486,
"implied_no": 0.5602,
"implied_yes": 0.4398,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2116,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0205,
"ev": -0.1205,
"implied_prob": 0.5568,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.5363
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1923,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0486,
"implied_prob": 0.4432,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.4619
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5363,
"p_final_yes": 0.4619,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1532,
"alpha_under": 0.2107,
"best_over_odd": 2.5,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.41,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.495,
"edge_over": 0.101,
"edge_under": -0.101,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.205,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0407,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1086,
"implied_over": 0.381,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3828,
"implied_under": 0.619,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6172,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1532,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0407,
"implied_prob": 0.3828,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.398
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2107,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.6172,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5963
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.398,
"p_final_under": 0.5963,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.205,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Giana Erminio at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Giana Erminio as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Giana Erminio",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Giana Erminio, but the model still strongly favours Giana Erminio.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.064,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4208,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4484304932735426,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0667,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"draw_prob": 0.2933,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4185,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.001,
"ev": -0.064,
"implied_prob": 0.4208,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Giana Erminio"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1923,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0186,
"market_prob": 0.4432,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2116,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0205,
"ev": -0.1205,
"implied_prob": 0.5568,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.5363
},
"p_final": 0.4619,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0486,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1923,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0486,
"implied_prob": 0.4432,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.4619
}
},
"edge": 0.1002,
"ev": 0.188,
"implied_prob": 0.4398,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1532,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0152,
"market_prob": 0.3828,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1532,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0407,
"implied_prob": 0.3828,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.398
},
"p_final": 0.398,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0407,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2107,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.6172,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5963
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.101,
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.381,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1608255,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.205,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2882,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.4185
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.381,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.381,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Dolomiti Bellunesi",
"home": "Giana Erminio"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.10152,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.188,
"implied_prob": 0.4398,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.064,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4208,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4484304932735426,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0667,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1608255,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T12:59:22.598135+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Giana Erminio & Dolomiti Bellunesi!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Serie C - Girone A — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Ospitaletto | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Trento | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Treviso | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Alcione | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Albinoleffe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Lumezzane | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Lecco | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Desenzano Calvina | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Pergolettese | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | Athletic Carpi | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 15 | Folgore Caratese | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 16 | Juventus U23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 17 | Novara | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 18 | Pro Vercelli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 20 | Renate | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 7 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Ospitaletto | 7 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 14 |
| 3 | Union Brescia | 7 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 15 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 7 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Albinoleffe | 7 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 | Alcione | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Athletic Carpi | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 6 |
| 8 | Trento | 7 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 13 |
| 9 | Treviso | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 10 | Folgore Caratese | 7 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Lumezzane | 7 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Juventus U23 | 7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 7 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 10 |
| 14 | Novara | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Giana Erminio | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Pro Vercelli | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Renate | 7 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2 |
| 18 | Lecco | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 19 | Desenzano Calvina | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 20 | Pergolettese | 7 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
