Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Guillermo Brown Germinal de Rawson ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.37
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Germinal de Rawson win · Germinal de Rawson 1–0 Guillermo Brown
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1326bc49f91a0bcab5904bd929481c1435fead952214290da4aa528da1ed4b4f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.41,
"away_win_prob": 0.4042,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.458,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2944,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.47,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.32,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.19,
"home_win_prob": 0.3014,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Germinal de Rawson or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Germinal de Rawson"
},
"away_xg": 1.41,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Guillermo Brown",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1412,
"edge_gap": 0.1036,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2636,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 40.5,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 30.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.37
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.37,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Guillermo Brown Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.79,
"market_odds": 3.37,
"model_odds": 2.47,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": 10.8,
"value_pct": 36.4,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 11,
"away_played": 23,
"away_score_rate": 75.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 12,
"home_played": 23,
"home_score_rate": 69.6,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.41,
"home_expected": 1.19,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Germinal de Rawson or Draw",
"prob": 59.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Germinal de Rawson or Guillermo Brown",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Guillermo Brown",
"prob": 69.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Germinal de Rawson or Guillermo Brown",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 40.4,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 30.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Guillermo Brown"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 36.4,
"implied_prob": 29.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Guillermo Brown Win",
"model_prob": 40.5,
"odds": 3.37
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Guillermo Brown",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 26.36,
"draw": 34.16,
"home": 39.48
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 18:30:04",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 18:02:54",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Germinal de Rawson",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.48,
"gap_pp": -9.36,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 30.12
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.16,
"gap_pp": -4.76,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.41
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.36,
"gap_pp": 14.12,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 40.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.37,
"gap_pp": 16.83,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 68.63,
"gap_pp": -16.83,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.25,
"early": 2.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.48,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.48,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.6,
"early": 2.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.16,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.16,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.37,
"early": 3.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.36,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.91,
"early": 2.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.37,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.37,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.33,
"early": 1.33,
"implied_closing_pct": 68.63,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 68.63,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.2,
"ev": -0.25,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.1667,
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.19,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1418,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0201,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.4005,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.195,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.125,
"implied_prob": 0.5995,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5719
},
"p_final": 0.4206,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2412,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0369,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1418,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0369,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4206
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2809,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -28.1,
"text": "-28.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.29,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 29.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.29,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"sort_key": 10411.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1362,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0221,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.3197,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1362,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0327,
"implied_prob": 0.3197,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3418
},
"p_final": 0.3418,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3641,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0327,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1873,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0304,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.6803,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6499
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4026,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 40.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2748,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.5,
"text": "-27.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4026,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10362.34,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown.",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0008,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.1,
"text": "+0.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2636,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0008,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.1,
"text": "+0.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3642,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+36.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Guillermo Brown",
"sort_key": 5200.64,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.06,
"hero_label": "Guillermo Brown",
"market_prob_pct": 26.4,
"market_team": "Germinal de Rawson",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Guillermo Brown",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4026,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4026,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guillermo Brown at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guillermo Brown as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guillermo Brown",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +40.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0008,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2636,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29673590504451036,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3642,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+36.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.06,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.06,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.41,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.19,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.19 \u00b7 Away xG 1.41 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Germinal de Rawson",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4026,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4026,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guillermo Brown at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guillermo Brown as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guillermo Brown",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +40.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0008,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2636,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29673590504451036,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3642,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+36.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Germinal de Rawson 1.19 xG vs Guillermo Brown 1.41 \u2192 Guillermo Brown 40.4%",
"Market: Germinal de Rawson ~26.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Germinal de Rawson +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Guillermo Brown with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.34,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Germinal de Rawson",
"market_prob": 39.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.72,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 34.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.06,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Guillermo Brown",
"market_prob": 26.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.94,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.26,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.94,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.74,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.21,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 39.99,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.21,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 60.01,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 14.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Guillermo Brown",
"market_prob_pct": 26.36,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Germinal de Rawson"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Guillermo Brown\u0027s win probability at 40.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 26.4%, a difference of 14.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 14.06,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Guillermo Brown",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.0,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Germinal de Rawson 1.19 xG vs Guillermo Brown 1.41 \u2192 Guillermo Brown 40.4%",
"Market: Germinal de Rawson ~26.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Germinal de Rawson +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Guillermo Brown with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.06,
"hero_label": "Guillermo Brown",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Guillermo Brown.",
"note": "The fair estimate is materially higher than current market pricing on Guillermo Brown.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Guillermo Brown."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Guillermo Brown more strongly than current market pricing.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.06,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Guillermo Brown",
"largest_gap_pp": 14.1,
"lead": "The model rates Guillermo Brown considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.34,
"edge_pp": -9.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Germinal de Rawson",
"market_prob_pct": 39.48,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.72,
"edge_pp": -4.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.16,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 14.06,
"edge_pp": 14.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Guillermo Brown",
"market_prob_pct": 26.36,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate is materially higher than current market pricing on Guillermo Brown.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Germinal de Rawson (26.4%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Guillermo Brown, Market \u2192 Germinal de Rawson, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.67,
"closing_odds": 3.37,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.67,
"entry_odds": 3.37,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "Germinal de Rawson",
"steam_score": 13,
"steam_team_name": "Germinal de Rawson",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "guillermo-brown",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Guillermo Brown",
"away_team_id": 472,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/472.webp",
"away_team_name": "Guillermo Brown",
"away_team_public_id": "2A9YNb5UAIXTUA",
"away_team_slug": "guillermo-brown",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1606493,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Germinal de Rawson",
"home_team_id": 3972,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3972.webp",
"home_team_name": "Germinal de Rawson",
"home_team_public_id": "0qEFvCk5Jt0pZV",
"home_team_slug": "germinal-de-rawson",
"ht.home_team_slug": "germinal-de-rawson",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_id": 134,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/134.webp",
"league_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_public_id": "48d0y0pjcpEL9D",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 18:30:00",
"public_id": "4MuMmAcPWQNuuS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Rawson",
"venue_name": "Estadio El Fortin"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2365,
"best_odd": 3.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": 0.0008,
"implied_prob": 0.2636,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2636,
"draw": 0.3416,
"home": 0.3948
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.297
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4179,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0199,
"ev": -0.1634,
"implied_prob": 0.3416,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2636,
"draw": 0.3416,
"home": 0.3948
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.3218
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3868,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0362,
"ev": -0.1932,
"implied_prob": 0.3948,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2636,
"draw": 0.3416,
"home": 0.3948
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.3586
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.37,
"edge": 0.108,
"ev": 0.3641,
"implied_prob": 0.2967,
"model_prob": 0.4048
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": -0.0906,
"ev": -0.2354,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.1433,
"ev": -0.3224,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.3012
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.195,
"alpha_yes": 0.1418,
"best_no_odd": 1.57,
"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1421,
"edge_yes": 0.1421,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2809,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.125,
"ev_yes": 0.29,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0369,
"implied_no": 0.6001,
"implied_yes": 0.3999,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.195,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.125,
"implied_prob": 0.5995,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5719
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1418,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0369,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4206
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5719,
"p_final_yes": 0.4206,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1362,
"alpha_under": 0.1873,
"best_over_odd": 2.91,
"best_under_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.83,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.33,
"edge_over": 0.1594,
"edge_under": -0.1594,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4026,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0327,
"ev_under": -0.2748,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1356,
"implied_over": 0.3226,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3197,
"implied_under": 0.6774,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6803,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1362,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0327,
"implied_prob": 0.3197,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3418
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1873,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0304,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.6803,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6499
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3418,
"p_final_under": 0.6499,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4026,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4026,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4026,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4026,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4026,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guillermo Brown at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guillermo Brown as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guillermo Brown",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +40.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Germinal de Rawson, but the model still strongly favours Guillermo Brown.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0008,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2636,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29673590504451036,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3642,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+36.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": 0.0008,
"implied_prob": 0.2636,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Guillermo Brown"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1418,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0201,
"market_prob": 0.4005,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.195,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.125,
"implied_prob": 0.5995,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5719
},
"p_final": 0.4206,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0369,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1418,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0369,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4206
}
},
"edge": 0.1421,
"ev": 0.29,
"implied_prob": 0.3999,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1362,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0221,
"market_prob": 0.3197,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1362,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0327,
"implied_prob": 0.3197,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3418
},
"p_final": 0.3418,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0327,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1873,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0304,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.6803,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6499
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1594,
"ev": 0.4026,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1606493,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4026,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4048,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.3012
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4026,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4026,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Guillermo Brown",
"home": "Germinal de Rawson"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.15718,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.29,
"implied_prob": 0.3999,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0008,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2636,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29673590504451036,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3642,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+36.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1606493,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T18:30:07.926834+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Germinal de Rawson & Guillermo Brown!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Torneo Federal A — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 31 |
| 2 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 3 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 30 |
| 4 | San Martin Formosa | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Alvarado | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 27 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 7 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 8 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 26 |
| 9 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 26 |
| 11 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 12 | Cipolletti | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 13 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 14 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 15 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 16 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 17 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 18 | Atenas | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 19 | Huracan Las Heras | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 20 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 21 | Fundacion Amigos | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 21 |
| 22 | Deportivo Rincon | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 23 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 24 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 25 | Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 19 |
| 26 | El Linqueño | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 27 | Costa Brava | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 28 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 29 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 30 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 31 | Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 17 |
| 32 | Tucuman Central | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 33 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 34 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 35 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 36 | Santamarina | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| 37 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 25 |
| 2 | San Martin Formosa | 16 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 30 |
| 3 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 27 |
| 4 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 31 |
| 5 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvarado | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 27 |
| 9 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 25 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 | Cipolletti | 16 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 25 |
| 12 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 27 |
| 14 | Fundacion Amigos | 16 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 15 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 25 |
| 16 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 23 |
| 17 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 26 |
| 18 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 18 |
| 19 | Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 19 |
| 20 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 23 |
| 21 | Tucuman Central | 16 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
| 22 | El Linqueño | 18 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 19 |
| 23 | Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 31 |
| 24 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 26 |
| 25 | Deportivo Rincon | 16 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 26 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 17 |
| 27 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 24 |
| 28 | Atenas | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 23 |
| 29 | Costa Brava | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 30 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 15 |
| 32 | Huracan Las Heras | 16 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 23 |
| 33 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 34 | Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| 35 | Santamarina | 16 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 13 |
| 36 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 18 |
