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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Circulo Deportivo Circulo Deportivo ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.66
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Circulo Deportivo win · Circulo Deportivo 2–1 Sol de Mayo
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d9f7002f96544a37e26b2c408784154672eb88725c1eb885e8e54333d8086c7e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"away_win_prob": 0.3194,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.13,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.6,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"home_win_prob": 0.3849,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Circulo Deportivo or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Circulo Deportivo"
},
"away_xg": 1.23,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Circulo Deportivo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.15,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5346,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.0,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.66
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.66,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Circulo Deportivo Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.87,
"market_odds": 1.66,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 12.7,
"prob_edge": -21.8,
"value_pct": -36.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 22,
"away_score_rate": 70.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 15,
"home_played": 22,
"home_score_rate": 74.6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
"home_expected": 1.37,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Circulo Deportivo or Draw",
"prob": 68.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Circulo Deportivo or Sol de Mayo",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sol de Mayo",
"prob": 61.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Circulo Deportivo or Sol de Mayo",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Circulo Deportivo"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 61.4,
"implied_prob": 19.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Sol de Mayo Win",
"model_prob": 31.9,
"odds": 5.06
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Sol de Mayo",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 17.54,
"draw": 29.0,
"home": 53.46
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 18:00:34",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 17:30:54",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Circulo Deportivo",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.46,
"gap_pp": -15.0,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.0,
"gap_pp": 0.59,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 17.54,
"gap_pp": 14.41,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.44,
"gap_pp": 10.76,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.56,
"gap_pp": -10.76,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.66,
"early": 1.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.46,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.06,
"early": 3.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.0,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 5.06,
"early": 5.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 17.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 17.54,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.44,
"early": 2.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.44,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.46,
"early": 1.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.56,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.37,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0191,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.4118,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1984,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0262,
"ev": -0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.5882,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5619
},
"p_final": 0.4309,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2158,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0369,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0369,
"implied_prob": 0.4118,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4309
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2841,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -28.4,
"text": "-28.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2512,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 25.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2512,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10376.08,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.153,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0153,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3821,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.153,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.3821,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3973
},
"p_final": 0.3973,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1616,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0424,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2104,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.6179,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5969
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1809,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 18.1,
"text": "+18.1%"
},
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.8,
"text": "-20.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1809,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10162.81,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "value_alert",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2283,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.8,
"text": "-22.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0018,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.2,
"text": "+0.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3616,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-36.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Circulo Deportivo",
"sort_key": 5201.44,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.97,
"hero_label": "Circulo Deportivo",
"market_prob_pct": 53.5,
"market_team": "Circulo Deportivo",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Circulo Deportivo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Circulo Deportivo), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Circulo Deportivo), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2512,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6167,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Circulo Deportivo at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Circulo Deportivo as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Circulo Deportivo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Circulo Deportivo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.97 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +62% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1606483 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.97 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +25.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Circulo Deportivo), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +62% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2283,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6024096385542169,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3616,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-36.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "value_alert",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.97,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.97,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Circulo Deportivo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Circulo Deportivo), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Circulo Deportivo), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2512,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6167,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Circulo Deportivo at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Circulo Deportivo as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Circulo Deportivo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Circulo Deportivo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.97 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +62% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1606483 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.97 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +25.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Circulo Deportivo), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +62% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2283,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6024096385542169,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3616,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-36.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Circulo Deportivo 1.37 xG vs Sol de Mayo 1.23 \u2192 Circulo Deportivo 38.5%",
"Market: Circulo Deportivo ~53.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Circulo Deportivo +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Circulo Deportivo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.97,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Circulo Deportivo",
"market_prob": 53.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.57,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.4,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Sol de Mayo",
"market_prob": 17.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.01,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.19,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.01,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.81,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.4,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.4,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Circulo Deportivo",
"market_prob_pct": 53.46,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Circulo Deportivo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Circulo Deportivo\u0027s win probability at 53.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.97,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Circulo Deportivo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 53.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -15.0,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -15.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Circulo Deportivo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Circulo Deportivo 1.37 xG vs Sol de Mayo 1.23 \u2192 Circulo Deportivo 38.5%",
"Market: Circulo Deportivo ~53.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Circulo Deportivo +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Circulo Deportivo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.97,
"hero_label": "Circulo Deportivo",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Circulo Deportivo than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Circulo Deportivo.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Circulo Deportivo than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Circulo Deportivo."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Circulo Deportivo more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Circulo Deportivo (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Circulo Deportivo."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.97,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Circulo Deportivo",
"largest_gap_pp": -15.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Circulo Deportivo higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.97,
"edge_pp": -14.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Circulo Deportivo",
"market_prob_pct": 53.46,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.57,
"edge_pp": 0.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.0,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 14.4,
"edge_pp": 14.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sol de Mayo",
"market_prob_pct": 17.54,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Circulo Deportivo.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Circulo Deportivo (53.5%).",
"Circulo Deportivo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 60.24,
"closing_odds": 1.66,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 60.24,
"entry_odds": 1.66,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 1.8,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Circulo Deportivo",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Circulo Deportivo",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sol de Mayo",
"away_team_id": 1941,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1941.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sol de Mayo",
"away_team_public_id": "5Iul1rKuZvb6t6",
"away_team_slug": "sol-de-mayo",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1606483,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Circulo Deportivo",
"home_team_id": 8399,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8399.webp",
"home_team_name": "Circulo Deportivo",
"home_team_public_id": "5OgZVfwHsE639C",
"home_team_slug": "circulo-deportivo",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_id": 134,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/134.webp",
"league_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_public_id": "48d0y0pjcpEL9D",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 18:00:00",
"public_id": "1BqlE0zpAPX4mG",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Comandante Nicanor Otamendi",
"venue_name": "Estadio Guillermo Trama"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1568,
"best_odd": 5.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": 0.0018,
"implied_prob": 0.1754,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1754,
"draw": 0.29,
"home": 0.5346
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.198
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2974,
"best_odd": 3.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0017,
"ev": -0.1072,
"implied_prob": 0.29,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1754,
"draw": 0.29,
"home": 0.5346
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2918
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.465,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0697,
"ev": -0.2283,
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1754,
"draw": 0.29,
"home": 0.5346
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4649
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.06,
"edge": 0.1219,
"ev": 0.6167,
"implied_prob": 0.1976,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.06,
"edge": -0.0309,
"ev": -0.0946,
"implied_prob": 0.3268,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.2178,
"ev": -0.3615,
"implied_prob": 0.6024,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1984,
"alpha_yes": 0.1443,
"best_no_odd": 1.57,
"best_yes_odd": 2.3,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.134,
"edge_yes": 0.134,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2841,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1206,
"ev_yes": 0.2512,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0369,
"implied_no": 0.59,
"implied_yes": 0.41,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1984,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0262,
"ev": -0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.5882,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5619
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0369,
"implied_prob": 0.4118,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4309
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5619,
"p_final_yes": 0.4309,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.153,
"alpha_under": 0.2104,
"best_over_odd": 2.45,
"best_under_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.41,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.49,
"edge_over": 0.1001,
"edge_under": -0.1001,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1809,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0424,
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1106,
"implied_over": 0.3819,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3821,
"implied_under": 0.6181,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6179,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.153,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.3821,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3973
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2104,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.6179,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5969
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3973,
"p_final_under": 0.5969,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2512,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6167,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2512,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "value_alert",
"final_decision": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Circulo Deportivo), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2512,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6167,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Circulo Deportivo at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Circulo Deportivo as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Circulo Deportivo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Circulo Deportivo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.97 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +62% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1606483 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.97 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +25.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Circulo Deportivo), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +62% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2283,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6024096385542169,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3616,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-36.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0697,
"ev": -0.2283,
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Circulo Deportivo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0191,
"market_prob": 0.4118,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1984,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0262,
"ev": -0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.5882,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5619
},
"p_final": 0.4309,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0369,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0369,
"implied_prob": 0.4118,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4309
}
},
"edge": 0.134,
"ev": 0.2512,
"implied_prob": 0.41,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.153,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0153,
"market_prob": 0.3821,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.153,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.3821,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3973
},
"p_final": 0.3973,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0424,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2104,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.6179,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5969
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1001,
"ev": 0.1809,
"implied_prob": 0.3819,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1606483,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2512,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1809,
"implied_prob": 0.3819,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1809,
"implied_prob": 0.3819,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sol de Mayo",
"home": "Circulo Deportivo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.136653,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2512,
"implied_prob": 0.41,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2283,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6024096385542169,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3616,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-36.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1606483,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T18:00:36.137251+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Circulo Deportivo & Sol de Mayo!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Torneo Federal A — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 31 |
| 2 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 3 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 30 |
| 4 | San Martin Formosa | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Alvarado | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 27 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 7 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 8 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 26 |
| 9 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 26 |
| 11 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 12 | Cipolletti | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 13 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 14 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 15 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 16 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 17 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 18 | Atenas | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 19 | Huracan Las Heras | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 20 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 21 | Fundacion Amigos | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 21 |
| 22 | Deportivo Rincon | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 23 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 24 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 25 | Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 19 |
| 26 | El Linqueño | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 27 | Costa Brava | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 28 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 29 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 30 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 31 | Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 17 |
| 32 | Tucuman Central | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 33 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 34 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 35 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 36 | Santamarina | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| 37 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 25 |
| 2 | San Martin Formosa | 16 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 30 |
| 3 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 27 |
| 4 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 31 |
| 5 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvarado | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 27 |
| 9 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 25 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 | Cipolletti | 16 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 25 |
| 12 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 27 |
| 14 | Fundacion Amigos | 16 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 15 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 25 |
| 16 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 23 |
| 17 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 26 |
| 18 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 18 |
| 19 | Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 19 |
| 20 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 23 |
| 21 | Tucuman Central | 16 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
| 22 | El Linqueño | 18 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 19 |
| 23 | Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 31 |
| 24 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 26 |
| 25 | Deportivo Rincon | 16 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 26 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 17 |
| 27 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 24 |
| 28 | Atenas | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 23 |
| 29 | Costa Brava | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 30 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 15 |
| 32 | Huracan Las Heras | 16 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 23 |
| 33 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 34 | Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| 35 | Santamarina | 16 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 13 |
| 36 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 18 |
