Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Argentino Monte Maíz Argentino Monte Maíz ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.9
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Argentino Monte Maíz win · Huracan Las Heras 1–2 Argentino Monte Maíz
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "2d150f67e7e1e314929e826b2fe40ab9883a53a22702fe2b320382712e43066e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.41,
"away_win_prob": 0.4042,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.458,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2944,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.47,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.32,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.19,
"home_win_prob": 0.3014,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz"
},
"away_xg": 1.41,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1772,
"edge_gap": 0.1036,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2275,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 40.5,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 30.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.9
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.9,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.39,
"market_odds": 3.9,
"model_odds": 2.47,
"overround": 12.7,
"prob_edge": 14.8,
"value_pct": 57.9,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 22,
"away_score_rate": 75.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 11,
"home_played": 21,
"home_score_rate": 69.6,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.41,
"home_expected": 1.19,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Huracan Las Heras or Draw",
"prob": 59.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Huracan Las Heras or Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"prob": 69.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Huracan Las Heras or Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 40.4,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 30.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 57.9,
"implied_prob": 25.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz Win",
"model_prob": 40.5,
"odds": 3.9
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 22.75,
"draw": 33.74,
"home": 43.5
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 18:29:52",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 18:01:32",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Huracan Las Heras",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.5,
"gap_pp": -13.39,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 30.12
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.74,
"gap_pp": -4.34,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.41
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.75,
"gap_pp": 17.72,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 40.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.47,
"gap_pp": 17.73,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 69.53,
"gap_pp": -17.73,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.04,
"early": 2.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.5,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.63,
"early": 2.63,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.74,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.9,
"early": 3.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.75,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.99,
"early": 2.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.47,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.31,
"early": 1.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 69.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 69.53,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.7,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.19,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1341,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"edge": 0.0228,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.3719,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1844,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.1378,
"implied_prob": 0.6281,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5967
},
"p_final": 0.3947,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3225,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0368,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1341,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": 0.0228,
"ev": -0.0368,
"implied_prob": 0.3719,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.3947
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2993,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -29.9,
"text": "-29.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.626,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 62.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.626,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"sort_key": 10713.4,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1319,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"edge": 0.0235,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.3037,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1319,
"best_odd": 2.98,
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": -0.0248,
"implied_prob": 0.3037,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3272
},
"p_final": 0.3272,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4364,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0248,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1813,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0323,
"ev": -0.1369,
"implied_prob": 0.6963,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6639
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.687,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 68.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.3214,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -32.1,
"text": "-32.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.687,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10618.3,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz.",
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0397,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.0,
"text": "+4.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2275,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0397,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.0,
"text": "+4.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5787,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"sort_key": 10035.73,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.67,
"hero_label": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"market_prob_pct": 22.8,
"market_team": "Huracan Las Heras",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.687,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.687,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +68.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +68.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +68.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+68.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0397,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2275,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25641025641025644,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5787,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (18 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.67,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.67,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.41,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.19,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.19 \u00b7 Away xG 1.41 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Huracan Las Heras",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.687,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.687,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +68.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +68.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +68.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+68.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0397,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2275,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25641025641025644,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5787,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Huracan Las Heras 1.19 xG vs Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz 1.41 \u2192 Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz 40.4%",
"Market: Huracan Las Heras ~22.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Huracan Las Heras +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz, but market pricing diverges by 18 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.36,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Huracan Las Heras",
"market_prob": 43.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.3,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.67,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"market_prob": 22.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.74,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 29.46,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.74,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 70.54,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.91,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 36.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.91,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 63.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 17.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"market_prob_pct": 22.75,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Huracan Las Heras"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz\u0027s win probability at 40.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.8%, a difference of 17.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 17.67,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+17.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 17.6,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+17.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 17.6,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Huracan Las Heras 1.19 xG vs Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz 1.41 \u2192 Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz 40.4%",
"Market: Huracan Las Heras ~22.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Huracan Las Heras +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz, but market pricing diverges by 18 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.67,
"hero_label": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz.",
"note": "The fair estimate is materially higher than current market pricing on Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz more strongly than current market pricing.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.67,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"largest_gap_pp": 17.7,
"lead": "The model rates Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.36,
"edge_pp": -13.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Huracan Las Heras",
"market_prob_pct": 43.5,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.3,
"edge_pp": -4.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.74,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 17.67,
"edge_pp": 17.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"market_prob_pct": 22.75,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate is materially higher than current market pricing on Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Huracan Las Heras (22.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz, Market \u2192 Huracan Las Heras, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.64,
"closing_odds": 3.9,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.64,
"entry_odds": 3.9,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/6",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Huracan Las Heras",
"steam_score": 11,
"steam_team_name": "Huracan Las Heras",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"away_team_id": 18764,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18764.webp",
"away_team_name": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"away_team_public_id": "1ID4KYE2uvlvt1",
"away_team_slug": "argentino-monte-maiz",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1606406,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Huracan Las Heras",
"home_team_id": 2428,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2428.webp",
"home_team_name": "Huracan Las Heras",
"home_team_public_id": "0FaOI6d5i4iZDl",
"home_team_slug": "huracan-las-heras",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_id": 134,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/134.webp",
"league_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_public_id": "48d0y0pjcpEL9D",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 18:30:00",
"public_id": "3vnt1CjEAGfWcM",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Las Heras",
"venue_name": "Estadio General San Martin"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.039,
"ev": 0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.2275,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2275,
"draw": 0.3374,
"home": 0.435
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.2666
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4207,
"best_odd": 2.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1605,
"implied_prob": 0.3374,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2275,
"draw": 0.3374,
"home": 0.435
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.3192
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3596,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0481,
"ev": -0.2108,
"implied_prob": 0.435,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2275,
"draw": 0.3374,
"home": 0.435
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.3869
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": 0.1484,
"ev": 0.5787,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"model_prob": 0.4048
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.63,
"edge": -0.0862,
"ev": -0.2266,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": -0.189,
"ev": -0.3857,
"implied_prob": 0.4902,
"model_prob": 0.3012
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1844,
"alpha_yes": 0.1341,
"best_no_odd": 1.53,
"best_yes_odd": 3.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1791,
"edge_yes": 0.1791,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2993,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1378,
"ev_yes": 0.626,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0368,
"implied_no": 0.6371,
"implied_yes": 0.3629,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1844,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.1378,
"implied_prob": 0.6281,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5967
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1341,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": 0.0228,
"ev": -0.0368,
"implied_prob": 0.3719,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.3947
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5967,
"p_final_yes": 0.3947,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1319,
"alpha_under": 0.1813,
"best_over_odd": 3.5,
"best_under_odd": 1.31,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.98,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.3,
"edge_over": 0.1874,
"edge_under": -0.1874,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.687,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0248,
"ev_under": -0.3214,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1369,
"implied_over": 0.2946,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3037,
"implied_under": 0.7054,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6963,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1319,
"best_odd": 2.98,
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": -0.0248,
"implied_prob": 0.3037,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3272
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1813,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0323,
"ev": -0.1369,
"implied_prob": 0.6963,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6639
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3272,
"p_final_under": 0.6639,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.687,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.687,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.687,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.687,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.687,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +68.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +68.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +68.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+68.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Huracan Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0397,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2275,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25641025641025644,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5787,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.039,
"ev": 0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.2275,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1341,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"edge": 0.0228,
"market_prob": 0.3719,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1844,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.1378,
"implied_prob": 0.6281,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5967
},
"p_final": 0.3947,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0368,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1341,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": 0.0228,
"ev": -0.0368,
"implied_prob": 0.3719,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.3947
}
},
"edge": 0.1791,
"ev": 0.626,
"implied_prob": 0.3629,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1319,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"edge": 0.0235,
"market_prob": 0.3037,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1319,
"best_odd": 2.98,
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": -0.0248,
"implied_prob": 0.3037,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3272
},
"p_final": 0.3272,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0248,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1813,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0323,
"ev": -0.1369,
"implied_prob": 0.6963,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6639
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1874,
"ev": 0.687,
"implied_prob": 0.2946,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1606406,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.687,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4048,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.3012
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.687,
"implied_prob": 0.2946,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.687,
"implied_prob": 0.2946,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Argentino Monte Ma\u00edz",
"home": "Huracan Las Heras"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.339292,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.626,
"implied_prob": 0.3629,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0397,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2275,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25641025641025644,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5787,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1606406,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T18:29:53.957218+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Huracan Las Heras & Argentino Monte Maíz!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Torneo Federal A — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 31 |
| 2 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 3 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 30 |
| 4 | San Martin Formosa | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Alvarado | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 27 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 7 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 8 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 26 |
| 9 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 26 |
| 11 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 12 | Cipolletti | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 13 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 14 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 15 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 16 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 17 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 18 | Atenas | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 19 | Huracan Las Heras | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 20 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 21 | Fundacion Amigos | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 21 |
| 22 | Deportivo Rincon | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 23 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 24 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 25 | Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 19 |
| 26 | El Linqueño | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 27 | Costa Brava | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 28 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 29 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 30 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 31 | Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 17 |
| 32 | Tucuman Central | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 33 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 34 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 35 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 36 | Santamarina | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| 37 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 25 |
| 2 | San Martin Formosa | 16 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 30 |
| 3 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 27 |
| 4 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 31 |
| 5 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvarado | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 27 |
| 9 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 25 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 | Cipolletti | 16 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 25 |
| 12 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 27 |
| 14 | Fundacion Amigos | 16 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 15 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 25 |
| 16 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 23 |
| 17 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 26 |
| 18 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 18 |
| 19 | Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 19 |
| 20 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 23 |
| 21 | Tucuman Central | 16 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
| 22 | El Linqueño | 18 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 19 |
| 23 | Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 31 |
| 24 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 26 |
| 25 | Deportivo Rincon | 16 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 26 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 17 |
| 27 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 24 |
| 28 | Atenas | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 23 |
| 29 | Costa Brava | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 30 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 15 |
| 32 | Huracan Las Heras | 16 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 23 |
| 33 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 34 | Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| 35 | Santamarina | 16 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 13 |
| 36 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 18 |
