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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Victoria Hotspurs Victoria Hotspurs ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.9
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Victoria Hotspurs win · Victoria Hotspurs 3–0 St. Andrews
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3194,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.13,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"fair_odds_home": 2.6,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"home_win_prob": 0.3849,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.23,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0946,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4792,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.0,
"draw": 29.6,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 1.9
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Victoria Hotspurs Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.09,
"market_odds": 1.9,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 9.8,
"prob_edge": -14.2,
"value_pct": -26.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 70.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 74.6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
"home_expected": 1.37,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Victoria Hotspurs or Draw",
"prob": 68.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Victoria Hotspurs or St. Andrews",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or St. Andrews",
"prob": 61.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Victoria Hotspurs or St. Andrews",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Victoria Hotspurs"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 8.5,
"implied_prob": 29.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "St. Andrews Win",
"model_prob": 31.9,
"odds": 3.4
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "St. Andrews",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 26.78,
"draw": 25.29,
"home": 47.92
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 16:01:18",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 15:32:29",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.92,
"gap_pp": -9.46,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.29,
"gap_pp": 4.29,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.78,
"gap_pp": 5.17,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.28,
"gap_pp": -8.08,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.72,
"gap_pp": 8.08,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.9,
"early": 1.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.92,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.6,
"early": 3.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.29,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.4,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.67,
"early": 1.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.28,
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"implied_early_pct": 56.28,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.15,
"early": 2.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.72,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.72,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
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"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.37,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1683,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0073,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4127,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1683,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.4127,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.42
},
"p_final": 0.42,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0123,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0676,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.01,
"ev": -0.0994,
"implied_prob": 0.5873,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5773
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0944,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.4,
"text": "+9.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1296,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.0,
"text": "-13.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0944,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10234.96,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1991,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0153,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.4412,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.219,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.5588,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.542
},
"p_final": 0.4565,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0826,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.046,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1991,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.046,
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4565
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.5,
"text": "-19.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.4,
"text": "+11.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1137,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10102.33,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.182,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.2,
"text": "-18.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0408,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.1,
"text": "-4.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2693,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.9%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"sort_key": 1789.8,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.43,
"hero_label": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"market_prob_pct": 47.9,
"market_team": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Victoria Hotspurs)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Victoria Hotspurs)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Victoria Hotspurs at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Victoria Hotspurs as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Victoria Hotspurs).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.182,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2693,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.43,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.43,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Victoria Hotspurs).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Victoria Hotspurs)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Victoria Hotspurs)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Victoria Hotspurs at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Victoria Hotspurs as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Victoria Hotspurs).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.182,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2693,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Victoria Hotspurs 1.37 xG vs St. Andrews 1.23 \u2192 Victoria Hotspurs 38.5%",
"Market: Victoria Hotspurs ~47.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Victoria Hotspurs +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Victoria Hotspurs with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.43,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"market_prob": 47.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.28,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.16,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "St. Andrews",
"market_prob": 26.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.69,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.69,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.94,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.34,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.94,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.66,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"market_prob_pct": 47.92,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Victoria Hotspurs"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Victoria Hotspurs\u0027s win probability at 47.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 9.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.43,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.4,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Victoria Hotspurs \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Victoria Hotspurs 1.37 xG vs St. Andrews 1.23 \u2192 Victoria Hotspurs 38.5%",
"Market: Victoria Hotspurs ~47.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Victoria Hotspurs +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Victoria Hotspurs with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.43,
"hero_label": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Victoria Hotspurs. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Victoria Hotspurs relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Victoria Hotspurs. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Victoria Hotspurs above the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.43,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Victoria Hotspurs higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.43,
"edge_pp": -9.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"market_prob_pct": 47.92,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.28,
"edge_pp": 4.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.29,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.16,
"edge_pp": 5.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "St. Andrews",
"market_prob_pct": 26.78,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Victoria Hotspurs relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Victoria Hotspurs (47.9%).",
"Victoria Hotspurs \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.63,
"closing_odds": 1.9,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.63,
"entry_odds": 1.9,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/5",
"current_odds": 1.9,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.9,
"pick_team": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_team_name": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "st-andrews-4610",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "St. Andrews",
"away_team_id": 4610,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4610.webp",
"away_team_name": "St. Andrews",
"away_team_public_id": "3j0W6qssD3p01l",
"away_team_slug": "st-andrews-4610",
"country_code": "MT",
"country_display_name": "Malta",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mt.svg",
"country_id": 104,
"country_name": "Malta",
"fixture_id": 1605358,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Malta",
"home_team_display_name": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"home_team_id": 16541,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16541.webp",
"home_team_name": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"home_team_public_id": "40BkRleFdC49rY",
"home_team_slug": "victoria-hotspurs",
"ht.home_team_slug": "victoria-hotspurs",
"league_country": "Malta",
"league_country_display": "Malta",
"league_display_name": "Maltese Challenge League",
"league_id": 392,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/392.webp",
"league_name": "Maltese Challenge League",
"league_public_id": "4bNcUTKyHsdgdo",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 16:00:00",
"public_id": "48w6NtwFExKnrh",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2767,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.2678,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2678,
"draw": 0.2529,
"home": 0.4792
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.2821
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2807,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.046,
"implied_prob": 0.2529,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2678,
"draw": 0.2529,
"home": 0.4792
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.265
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5148,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0487,
"ev": -0.182,
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2678,
"draw": 0.2529,
"home": 0.4792
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4305
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": 0.0863,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": 0.0651,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": -0.1417,
"ev": -0.2692,
"implied_prob": 0.5263,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1683,
"alpha_yes": 0.2314,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0494,
"edge_yes": -0.0494,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0944,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0676,
"ev_yes": -0.1296,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0994,
"implied_no": 0.4066,
"implied_yes": 0.5934,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1683,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.4127,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.42
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.01,
"ev": -0.0994,
"implied_prob": 0.5873,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5773
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.42,
"p_final_yes": 0.5773,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.219,
"alpha_under": 0.1991,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.15,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.09,
"edge_over": -0.0769,
"edge_under": 0.0769,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1057,
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.046,
"implied_over": 0.5589,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5588,
"implied_under": 0.4411,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4412,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.219,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.5588,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.542
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1991,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.046,
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4565
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.542,
"p_final_under": 0.4565,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.3
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Victoria Hotspurs)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Victoria Hotspurs at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Victoria Hotspurs as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Victoria Hotspurs",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Victoria Hotspurs).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.182,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2693,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0487,
"ev": -0.182,
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Victoria Hotspurs"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1683,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0073,
"market_prob": 0.4127,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1683,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.4127,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.42
},
"p_final": 0.42,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0676,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.01,
"ev": -0.0994,
"implied_prob": 0.5873,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5773
}
},
"edge": 0.0494,
"ev": 0.0944,
"implied_prob": 0.4066,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1991,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0153,
"market_prob": 0.4412,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.219,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.5588,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.542
},
"p_final": 0.4565,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.046,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1991,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.046,
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4565
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0769,
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1605358,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1137,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "St. Andrews",
"home": "Victoria Hotspurs"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.043046,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0944,
"implied_prob": 0.4066,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.182,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2693,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1605358,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T16:01:21.171495+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Victoria Hotspurs & St. Andrews!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Maltese Challenge League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Victoria Hotspurs | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Fgura United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Vittoriosa Stars | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Swieqi United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Sirens | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Melita | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Naxxar Lions | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Pietà Hotspurs | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Mgarr United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Santa Lucía | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Attard | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | St. Andrews | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Zurrieq | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Gudja United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Zebbug Rangers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows | 2 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Swieqi United | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | Victoria Hotspurs | 2 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 4 | Fgura United | 2 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 4 |
| 5 | Naxxar Lions | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Pietà Hotspurs | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Melita | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Attard | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 |
| 9 | Mgarr United | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Vittoriosa Stars | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 11 | Sirens | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 12 | Santa Lucía | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Zurrieq | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | St. Andrews | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Zebbug Rangers | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
| 16 | Gudja United | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
