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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Al Orubah Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.74
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Al Jabalain 0–0 Al Orubah
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "453839a9643e19aa5844493f7b7c73c206496fe8b776febc0ea8e28f65e334f4",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"away_win_prob": 0.3611,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.77,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.92,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"home_win_prob": 0.3424,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Al Jabalain or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Al Jabalain"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Al Orubah",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.164,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.1969,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.1,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.78
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.78,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Al Orubah Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 5.08,
"market_odds": 4.78,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 6.2,
"prob_edge": 15.2,
"value_pct": 72.6,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 72.2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
"home_expected": 1.28,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Al Jabalain or Draw",
"prob": 63.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Al Jabalain or Al Orubah",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Al Orubah",
"prob": 65.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Al Jabalain or Al Orubah",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Al Orubah"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 72.6,
"implied_prob": 20.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Al Orubah Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 4.78
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Al Orubah",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 19.69,
"draw": 26.22,
"home": 54.09
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 15:50:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 15:24:01",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Al Jabalain",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.09,
"gap_pp": -19.85,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.22,
"gap_pp": 3.45,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.69,
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.01,
"gap_pp": 1.19,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.99,
"gap_pp": -1.19,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.74,
"early": 1.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.09,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.59,
"early": 3.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.22,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.78,
"early": 4.78,
"implied_closing_pct": 19.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 19.69,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.04,
"early": 2.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.01,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.81,
"early": 1.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.99,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.99,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.28,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah.",
"consensus_odds": 4.78,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0594,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.9,
"text": "+5.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1969,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0594,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.9,
"text": "+5.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7251,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+72.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Al Orubah",
"sort_key": 10203.46,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2121,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0081,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.5068,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2121,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.1026,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4851
},
"p_final": 0.5149,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.019,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0731,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2121,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0081,
"ev": -0.0731,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5149
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.131,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.1,
"text": "-13.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0026,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.3,
"text": "-0.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0026,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 4049.636,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2219,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.805,
"edge": 0.002,
"edge_pp": 0.2,
"market_prob": 0.5088,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2219,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": -0.002,
"ev": -0.0853,
"implied_prob": 0.4912,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4891
},
"p_final": 0.5109,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.065,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0779,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2219,
"best_odd": 1.805,
"edge": 0.002,
"ev": -0.0779,
"implied_prob": 0.5088,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5109
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.036,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.6,
"text": "-3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0054,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.5,
"text": "-0.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0054,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 1798.65,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"alert_team": "Al Orubah",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 19.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -19.85,
"hero_label": "Al Jabalain",
"market_prob_pct": 19.7,
"market_team": "Al Jabalain",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Al Orubah",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0594,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7253,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Orubah at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Orubah as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Orubah",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Al Orubah \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.78 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +73% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1604015 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.78 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +73% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0594,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.78,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1969,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20920502092050208,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7251,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+72.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (20 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 19.85,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 19.85,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"steam_team": "Al Orubah",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 6,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 6,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0594,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7253,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Orubah at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Orubah as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Orubah",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Al Orubah \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.78 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +73% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1604015 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.78 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +73% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0594,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.78,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1969,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20920502092050208,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7251,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+72.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Al Jabalain 1.28 xG vs Al Orubah 1.32 \u2192 Al Orubah 36.1%",
"Market: Al Jabalain ~19.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Al Orubah odds \u2191 +8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Al Orubah, but the market has moved away from Al Orubah.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -19.85,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Al Jabalain",
"market_prob": 54.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.43,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.42,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Al Orubah",
"market_prob": 19.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.94,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.14,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.94,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.86,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.61,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.61,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -19.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Al Jabalain",
"market_prob_pct": 54.09,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Al Orubah"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Al Jabalain\u0027s win probability at 54.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 19.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 19.85,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Al Orubah",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 19.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+16.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 16.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+16.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 6,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 6,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Al Jabalain 1.28 xG vs Al Orubah 1.32 \u2192 Al Orubah 36.1%",
"Market: Al Jabalain ~19.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Al Orubah odds \u2191 +8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Al Orubah, but the market has moved away from Al Orubah.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -19.85,
"hero_label": "Al Jabalain",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Al Orubah odds lengthened \u2191 +8.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Al Orubah has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Al Jabalain than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Al Orubah \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Al Jabalain than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Al Orubah has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Al Orubah \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Al Jabalain more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Al Orubah has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Al Orubah."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 19.85,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Al Jabalain",
"largest_gap_pp": -19.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Al Jabalain higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 19.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -19.85,
"edge_pp": -19.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Al Jabalain",
"market_prob_pct": 54.09,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.43,
"edge_pp": 3.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.22,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 16.42,
"edge_pp": 16.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Al Orubah",
"market_prob_pct": 19.69,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Al Orubah \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Al Jabalain (19.7%).",
"However, Al Orubah has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +8.3%, 7/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Al Orubah, Market \u2192 Al Jabalain, while Al Orubah odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.47,
"closing_odds": 1.74,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.47,
"entry_odds": 1.74,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 40h 43m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Al Orubah (8.3%, 7/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.78",
"4.19",
"3.60"
],
"display": "4.75 \u2192 3.60 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 40h 43m",
"pick_team": "Al Orubah",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
4.78,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,13.4",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.78"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/8 sportsbooks on Al Orubah",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Al Orubah",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"summary": "Market moved away from Al Orubah while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Al Orubah",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Al Orubah",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Al Orubah",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 19.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "al-orubah",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Al Orubah",
"away_team_id": 2961,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2961.webp",
"away_team_name": "Al Orubah",
"away_team_public_id": "4825bcDRmkP8IO",
"away_team_slug": "al-orubah",
"country_code": "SA",
"country_display_name": "Saudi-Arabia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/sa.svg",
"country_id": 135,
"country_name": "Saudi-Arabia",
"fixture_id": 1604015,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Saudi-Arabia",
"home_team_display_name": "Al Jabalain",
"home_team_id": 2958,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2958.webp",
"home_team_name": "Al Jabalain",
"home_team_public_id": "5yUht6b9Up1yY4",
"home_team_slug": "al-jabalain",
"ht.home_team_slug": "al-jabalain",
"league_country": "Saudi-Arabia",
"league_country_display": "Saudi-Arabia",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng nh\u1ea5t \u1ea2 R\u1eadp X\u00ea \u00dat",
"league_id": 308,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/308.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng nh\u1ea5t \u1ea2 R\u1eadp X\u00ea \u00dat",
"league_public_id": "3gCoKrZjmW8ezD",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 15:55:00",
"public_id": "1VVqfrt9TjrNue",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Prince Abdul Aziz bin Masaad Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1508,
"best_odd": 4.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": 0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.1969,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1969,
"draw": 0.2622,
"home": 0.5409
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.2216
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2845,
"best_odd": 3.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0236,
"implied_prob": 0.2622,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1969,
"draw": 0.2622,
"home": 0.5409
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.272
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4213,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0836,
"ev": -0.2043,
"implied_prob": 0.5409,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1969,
"draw": 0.2622,
"home": 0.5409
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4573
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.78,
"edge": 0.1517,
"ev": 0.7253,
"implied_prob": 0.2092,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.59,
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": 0.0651,
"implied_prob": 0.2786,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.2323,
"ev": -0.4042,
"implied_prob": 0.5747,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2121,
"alpha_yes": 0.2121,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0361,
"edge_yes": 0.0361,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.131,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1026,
"ev_yes": -0.0026,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0731,
"implied_no": 0.4911,
"implied_yes": 0.5089,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2121,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.1026,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4851
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2121,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0081,
"ev": -0.0731,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5149
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4851,
"p_final_yes": 0.5149,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2219,
"alpha_under": 0.2219,
"best_over_odd": 2.0,
"best_under_odd": 1.92,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.87,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.805,
"edge_over": -0.0094,
"edge_under": 0.0094,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.036,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0853,
"ev_under": -0.0054,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0779,
"implied_over": 0.4914,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4912,
"implied_under": 0.5086,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5088,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2219,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": -0.002,
"ev": -0.0853,
"implied_prob": 0.4912,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4891
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2219,
"best_odd": 1.805,
"edge": 0.002,
"ev": -0.0779,
"implied_prob": 0.5088,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5109
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4891,
"p_final_under": 0.5109,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0594,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7253,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0594,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0594,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7253,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Orubah at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Orubah as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Orubah",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Al Orubah \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.78 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +73% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1604015 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.78 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +73% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Al Orubah, but the model still strongly favours Al Orubah.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "+5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.78,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1969,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20920502092050208,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7251,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+72.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.78,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": 0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.1969,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Al Orubah"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0081,
"market_prob": 0.5068,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.1026,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4851
},
"p_final": 0.5149,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0731,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"edge": 0.0081,
"ev": -0.0731,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0361,
"ev": -0.0026,
"implied_prob": 0.5089,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
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"ev": -0.0853,
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},
"p_final": 0.5109,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0779,
"under": {
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"implied_prob": 0.5086,
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1604015,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0594,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Al Orubah",
"home": "Al Jabalain"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0594,
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"market": "1x2",
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"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Al Orubah",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "+5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.78,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1969,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20920502092050208,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7251,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+72.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1604015,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T15:50:09.353410+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Al Jabalain & Al Orubah!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải hạng nhất Ả Rập Xê Út — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ula | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Al Zulfi | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Al Taee | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Al Anwar | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Damac | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Jabalain | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Al Wehda Club | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Al-Adalah | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Jeddah Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Al Saqer | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Al Najma | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Al Orubah | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Al-Raed | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Al Akhdoud | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 15 | Hajer | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 16 | Al Jandal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 17 | Al Bukayriyah | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 18 | Al Jeel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ula | 5 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 15 |
| 2 | Al Wehda Club | 6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Taee | 6 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Al-Adalah | 6 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Al Jandal | 6 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Al Zulfi | 6 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 7 | Damac | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Najma | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Al Akhdoud | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Al-Raed | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Jeddah Club | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Al Anwar | 6 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 | Al Saqer | 6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 14 | Al Jabalain | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Al Orubah | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Hajer | 6 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Bukayriyah | 6 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 2 |
| 18 | Al Jeel | 6 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 2 |
