Avellino vs Sampdoria Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "afp_away_win_prob": 0.3695,
      "afp_draw_prob": 0.3378,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.2927,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.08,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3695,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3695,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.588,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.412,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3378,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.3378,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.71,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.71,
      "fair_odds_draw": 2.96,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 2.96,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.42,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 3.42,
      "home_predicted_xg": 0.91,
      "home_win_prob": 0.2927,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.2927,
      "over_25_prob": 0.321,
      "prediction_confidence": "high",
      "under_25_prob": 0.679
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Avellino or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Avellino"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.08,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Sampdoria",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.019,
        "edge_gap": 0.0312,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3503,
        "model_prob": 0.3693,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 36.9,
          "draw": 33.8,
          "home": 29.3
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.86
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
          "odd": 2.72
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
          "odd": 2.7
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
          "odd": 2.7
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
          "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
          "odd": 2.7
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
          "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
          "odd": 2.65
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
          "odd": 2.62
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
          "odd": 2.55
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.86,
        "bookmaker_id": 4,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Sampdoria Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.85,
        "market_odds": 2.65,
        "model_odds": 2.71,
        "overround": 7.6,
        "prob_edge": 1.9,
        "value_pct": 5.5,
        "value_rating": "small_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 0,
        "away_failed_to_score": 1,
        "away_played": 5,
        "away_score_rate": 66.0,
        "home_clean_sheet": 2,
        "home_failed_to_score": 0,
        "home_played": 5,
        "home_score_rate": 59.7,
        "no_prob": 58.8,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 58.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 41.2
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.08,
        "home_expected": 0.91,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 14.8
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 13.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 13.4
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 12.4
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 8.0
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Avellino or Draw",
            "prob": 63.1
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Avellino or Sampdoria",
            "prob": 66.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Sampdoria",
            "prob": 70.8
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Sampdoria",
        "pick_prob": 70.8
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 37.0,
        "draw_pct": 33.8,
        "home_pct": 29.3,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Sampdoria"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 1.99,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "over_prob": 32.1,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 67.9,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 1.99,
        "under_prob": 67.9
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 9,
        "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
        "edge": 11.5,
        "implied_prob": 30.3,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 33.8,
        "odds": 3.3
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "has_data": false
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": {
        "best_bookmaker": "Betfair",
        "best_odds": 10.0,
        "edge": 3.7,
        "ev": 36.7,
        "label": "0-0",
        "probability": 13.7
      },
      "lean_card": {
        "diff_pp": 3.2,
        "ev": 0.2728,
        "has_edge": true,
        "label": "0-1",
        "market_odds": 8.6,
        "market_prob": 0.1163,
        "market_prob_pct": 11.6,
        "model_prob": 0.148,
        "model_prob_pct": 14.8,
        "n_bookmakers": 8,
        "status_key": "positive_edge"
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "0-1",
        "prob": 14.8
      },
      "top5": [
        {
          "label": "0-1",
          "prob": 14.8
        },
        {
          "label": "0-0",
          "prob": 13.7
        },
        {
          "label": "1-1",
          "prob": 13.4
        },
        {
          "label": "1-0",
          "prob": 12.4
        },
        {
          "label": "0-2",
          "prob": 8.0
        }
      ]
    },
    "home_xg": 0.91,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.4265,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 1.99,
          "edge": 0.0534,
          "edge_pp": 5.3,
          "market_prob": 0.4629,
          "mode": "market_first_btts",
          "model_prob": 0.588,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "no": {
            "alpha": 0.4265,
            "best_odd": 1.99,
            "edge": 0.0534,
            "ev": 0.0273,
            "implied_prob": 0.4629,
            "model_prob": 0.588,
            "p_final": 0.5162
          },
          "p_final": 0.5162,
          "prediction_confidence": "high",
          "raw_edge_pp": 12.5,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.1701,
          "risk_adj_ev": 0.0273,
          "value_side": "no",
          "yes": {
            "alpha": 0.4691,
            "best_odd": 1.715,
            "edge": -0.0587,
            "ev": -0.1795,
            "implied_prob": 0.5371,
            "model_prob": 0.412,
            "p_final": 0.4784
          }
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.323,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 32.3,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "ev_yes": -0.2584,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -25.8,
          "text": "-25.8%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.323,
        "n_bookmakers": 7,
        "no_prob": 58.8,
        "sort_key": 10440.7,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 41.2
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.4688,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 1.79,
          "edge": 0.0709,
          "edge_pp": 7.1,
          "market_prob": 0.5277,
          "mode": "market_first_ou",
          "model_prob": 0.679,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "over": {
            "alpha": 0.4261,
            "best_odd": 2.0,
            "edge": -0.0645,
            "ev": -0.1844,
            "implied_prob": 0.4723,
            "model_prob": 0.321,
            "p_final": 0.4078
          },
          "p_final": 0.5986,
          "prediction_confidence": "high",
          "raw_edge_pp": 15.1,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.2154,
          "risk_adj_ev": 0.0715,
          "under": {
            "alpha": 0.4688,
            "best_odd": 1.79,
            "edge": 0.0709,
            "ev": 0.0715,
            "implied_prob": 0.5277,
            "model_prob": 0.679,
            "p_final": 0.5986
          },
          "value_side": "under"
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.3227,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -32.3,
          "text": "-32.3%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.2222,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 22.2,
          "text": "+22.2%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.2222,
        "n_bookmakers": 8,
        "over_prob": 32.1,
        "sort_key": 10199.98,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 67.9,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "authority_action": "no_bet",
        "authority_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
        "consensus_odds": 2.675,
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "disagreement_label": "Normal",
        "disagreement_level": "normal",
        "ev": -0.0456,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -4.6,
          "text": "-4.6%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3472,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "max_ev": -0.0426,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -4.3,
          "text": "-4.3%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.3693,
        "raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.0121,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.2%",
        "show_primary_label": false,
        "side_label": "Sampdoria",
        "sort_key": 1789.35,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 824.4,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "0-1",
        "top_prob": 14.8
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "5/10",
        "alert_breadth_note": "5/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -3.2%",
        "alert_team": "Draw",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 0.0,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": null,
        "hero_label": "",
        "market_prob_pct": null,
        "market_team": "Sampdoria",
        "model_prob_pct": 37.0,
        "model_team": "Sampdoria",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable prediction",
        "status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
        "steam_score": 28,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": false,
          "direction_key": "conflict",
          "gap_pp": 2.2,
          "key": "conflict",
          "label": "Disagree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "high",
          "probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
          "summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria."
        },
        "authority": {
          "action": "no_bet",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": false,
            "direction_key": "conflict",
            "gap_pp": 2.2,
            "key": "conflict",
            "label": "Disagree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "high",
            "probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
            "summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria."
          },
          "alignment_key": "conflict",
          "best_consensus_ev": 0.323,
          "best_outlier_ev": 0.323,
          "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
          "decision_strength": 3.0,
          "decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
          "decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
          "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
          "execution_confidence": 25,
          "extreme_disagreement": false,
          "final_verdict_audit": {
            "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
            "action_label": "Action",
            "decision": "No Primary Bet",
            "is_primary": false,
            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sampdoria at 36.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Sampdoria as the value side (36.9%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                "tone": "bad"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 2.2,
          "gates_failed": [
            "Reliability below 65"
          ],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "No Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u25cb",
          "label": "No Primary Bet",
          "market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Sampdoria",
          "no_primary_reasons": {
            "all_triggered": [
              "market_conflict",
              "market_quality",
              "calibration_risk"
            ],
            "calibration_mode": "soft",
            "codes": [
              "market_conflict",
              "market_quality"
            ],
            "label": "Reason",
            "other_factors": [
              {
                "code": "market_quality",
                "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                "tone": "warn"
              }
            ],
            "other_label": "Other factors",
            "primary": {
              "code": "market_conflict",
              "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
              "name": "Market Conflict",
              "short": "Market Conflict",
              "subtype": "drift_against_model",
              "tone": "warn"
            },
            "secondary": {
              "code": "market_quality",
              "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
              "name": "Market Quality Risk",
              "short": "Market Quality Risk",
              "tone": "warn"
            },
            "version": "v1"
          },
          "outlier_detected": false,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
          "primary_allowed": false,
          "primary_block_explain": {
            "entries": [
              {
                "key": "positive_ev",
                "label": "Consensus EV +32.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                "ok": true
              },
              {
                "key": "gate",
                "label": "Reliability below 65",
                "ok": false
              }
            ],
            "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
            "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
            "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
            "title": "Why not Primary?"
          },
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "warning"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "57 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "25 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "conflict"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+32.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 5,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": null,
          "reasons": [
            "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
            "Decision strength: 3.0/10",
            "Reliability below 65"
          ],
          "reliability_score": 57,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Market steam conflicts with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV",
            "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
          ],
          "subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "observe",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": -0.0456,
            "consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
            "consensus_odds": 2.675,
            "disagreement_label": "Normal",
            "disagreement_level": "normal",
            "implied_prob": 0.3472,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.3693,
            "raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.3738317757009346,
            "raw_signal_ev": -0.0121,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.2%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "calibration_status": "warning",
            "deviation_pct": -20.0,
            "reasons": [
              "Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
            ],
            "recommended_action": "monitor",
            "strength_delta": -1.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "low",
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "separation_score": -10,
              "strength_delta": -1.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.17
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "no_bet",
        "books_breadth_display": "5/10",
        "breadth_ratio": 0.5,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 57,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation pending",
              "status": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 2,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Pending",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Steam conflicts with model",
              "tone": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 25.0,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 5.0,
            "steam_coherence": 2.0,
            "validation": 8.0
          },
          "score": 57,
          "stars": 2,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
        "market_agreement": "unknown",
        "max_gap_pp": 0.0,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.08,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": -20.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 0.91,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.08,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 0.91 \u00b7 Away xG 1.08 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -20%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": false,
        "mv_status": "pending",
        "odds_delta_pct": -3.2,
        "steam_conflicts": true,
        "steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
        "steam_team": "Draw",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Monitoring Confidence",
            "score": 25,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 31,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 36,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 31,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "no_bet",
            "label": "No Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": false,
            "direction_key": "conflict",
            "gap_pp": 2.2,
            "key": "conflict",
            "label": "Disagree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "high",
            "probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
            "summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "no_bet",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": false,
              "direction_key": "conflict",
              "gap_pp": 2.2,
              "key": "conflict",
              "label": "Disagree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": true,
              "pricing_key": "high",
              "probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
              "summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria."
            },
            "alignment_key": "conflict",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.323,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.323,
            "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
            "decision_strength": 3.0,
            "decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
            "decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
            "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
            "execution_confidence": 25,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "No Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": false,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sampdoria at 36.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Sampdoria as the value side (36.9%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                  "tone": "bad"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 2.2,
            "gates_failed": [
              "Reliability below 65"
            ],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "No Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u25cb",
            "label": "No Primary Bet",
            "market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Sampdoria",
            "no_primary_reasons": {
              "all_triggered": [
                "market_conflict",
                "market_quality",
                "calibration_risk"
              ],
              "calibration_mode": "soft",
              "codes": [
                "market_conflict",
                "market_quality"
              ],
              "label": "Reason",
              "other_factors": [
                {
                  "code": "market_quality",
                  "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                  "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                  "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                  "tone": "warn"
                }
              ],
              "other_label": "Other factors",
              "primary": {
                "code": "market_conflict",
                "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
                "name": "Market Conflict",
                "short": "Market Conflict",
                "subtype": "drift_against_model",
                "tone": "warn"
              },
              "secondary": {
                "code": "market_quality",
                "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                "tone": "warn"
              },
              "version": "v1"
            },
            "outlier_detected": false,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
            "primary_allowed": false,
            "primary_block_explain": {
              "entries": [
                {
                  "key": "positive_ev",
                  "label": "Consensus EV +32.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                  "ok": true
                },
                {
                  "key": "gate",
                  "label": "Reliability below 65",
                  "ok": false
                }
              ],
              "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
              "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
              "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
              "title": "Why not Primary?"
            },
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "warning"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "57 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "25 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "conflict"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+32.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 5,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": null,
            "reasons": [
              "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
              "Decision strength: 3.0/10",
              "Reliability below 65"
            ],
            "reliability_score": 57,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Market steam conflicts with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV",
              "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
            ],
            "subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "observe",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": -0.0456,
              "consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
              "consensus_odds": 2.675,
              "disagreement_label": "Normal",
              "disagreement_level": "normal",
              "implied_prob": 0.3472,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.3693,
              "raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.3738317757009346,
              "raw_signal_ev": -0.0121,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.2%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "calibration_status": "warning",
              "deviation_pct": -20.0,
              "reasons": [
                "Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
              ],
              "recommended_action": "monitor",
              "strength_delta": -1.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "low",
                "block_value_alert": false,
                "separation_score": -10,
                "strength_delta": -1.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.17
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "No Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u25cb",
          "label": "No Primary Bet",
          "subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
          "tier": "observe"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Avellino 0.91 xG vs Sampdoria 1.08 \u2192 Sampdoria 37.0%",
            "Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -3.2%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model favours Sampdoria, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 29.27,
          "label": "Avellino",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 33.78,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 36.95,
          "label": "Sampdoria",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -14.82,
          "fair_prob": 32.1,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 46.92,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 14.82,
          "fair_prob": 67.9,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 53.08,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -12.8,
          "fair_prob": 41.2,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 54.0,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 12.8,
          "fair_prob": 58.8,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 46.0,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {},
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
        "comparison_available": false,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "unknown",
          "max_gap_pp": 0.0,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "",
        "edge_label_key": "",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Sampdoria",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Conflicts with model",
            "positive": false
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 34.7,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": 2.3,
          "model_prob_pct": 37.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": 2.3,
            "label": "High",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_score": 57,
          "reliability_tier": "limited",
          "summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pending",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Monitoring Confidence",
              "score": 25,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 31,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 36,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 31,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "no_bet",
              "label": "No Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Avellino 0.91 xG vs Sampdoria 1.08 \u2192 Sampdoria 37.0%",
              "Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -3.2%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model favours Sampdoria, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": null,
        "hero_label": "",
        "hero_side": null,
        "market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -3.2%.",
        "market_agreement": "unknown",
        "market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 0.0,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
          "status": "pending"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pending",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.2 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 3.2,
          "max_prob_pct": 37.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "aligned",
          "largest_gap_label": "",
          "largest_gap_pp": null,
          "lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
          "level": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 0.0,
          "title": "Broadly Aligned"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": null,
            "edge_pp": null,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.27,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Avellino",
            "market_prob_pct": null,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "",
            "signal_label": ""
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": null,
            "edge_pp": null,
            "fair_prob_pct": 33.78,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": null,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "",
            "signal_label": ""
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": null,
            "edge_pp": null,
            "fair_prob_pct": 36.95,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Sampdoria",
            "market_prob_pct": null,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "",
            "signal_label": ""
          }
        ],
        "status": "unknown",
        "status_label": "\u2014",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The statistical model leans Sampdoria (37.0%).",
          "Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.2%, 5/10).",
          "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": null,
        "closing_odds": null,
        "closing_reason": "No complete pre-match closing snapshot",
        "closing_status": "unavailable",
        "closing_status_label": "Unavailable",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": null,
        "clv_reason": "Requires closing line after full time",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "closing_unavailable",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Closing unavailable",
        "entry_implied_pct": 33.33,
        "entry_odds": 3.0,
        "match_phase": "live",
        "match_phase_detail": "2H",
        "match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
        "match_phase_label": "Live",
        "model_validation_label": "Pending",
        "model_validation_status": "pending",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "pending"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "unavailable"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 5,
        "books_reacting_detail": [
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 3,
            "bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -9.1
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 11,
            "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -3.2
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 8,
            "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -3.2
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 2,
            "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -3.2
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 4,
            "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -3.2
          }
        ],
        "books_total": 10,
        "breadth_display": "5/10",
        "clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
        "clv_status": "waiting",
        "current_odds": 3.0,
        "is_drift": false,
        "move_context": "Highest consensus move",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
        "move_pct_abs": 3.2,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 46m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.35 \u2192 2.97 \u2192 3.00) \u2014 net 3.2% but intraday chop is elevated.",
          "Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_delta_pct": -3.2,
        "odds_path": {
          "chart_y_labels": [
            "3.10",
            "3.05",
            "3.00"
          ],
          "display": "3.35 \u2192 2.97 \u2192 3.00",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 46m",
          "pick_team": "Draw",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.35"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.97"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.00"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_points": [
            3.1,
            3.0
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
          "summary_boxes": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.10"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "low",
              "value": "3.00"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "high",
              "value": "3.10"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.00"
            }
          ]
        },
        "open_odds": 3.1,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Volatile",
        "phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "warn",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
        "signal_impact": {
          "current_odds": 3.0,
          "is_drift": false,
          "label": "Sharp signal",
          "move_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
          "open_odds": 3.1,
          "summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
          "team": "Draw",
          "tone": "against"
        },
        "signal_key": "volatile_market",
        "signal_label": "Volatile market",
        "steam_score": 28,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "5/10",
        "current_odds": 3.0,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
        "open_odds": 3.1,
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "steam_score": 28,
        "steam_team_name": "Draw",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {},
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "sampdoria",
      "away_expected_goals": 0.25,
      "away_goal_display": 1,
      "away_team_display_name": "Sampdoria",
      "away_team_id": 498,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/498.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Sampdoria",
      "away_team_public_id": "5mYe1BXkauSopW",
      "away_team_slug": "sampdoria",
      "country_code": "IT",
      "country_display_name": "Italy",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
      "country_id": 79,
      "country_name": "Italy",
      "fixture_id": 1601544,
      "goals_away": 1,
      "goals_home": 4,
      "home_expected_goals": 1.34,
      "home_goal_display": 4,
      "home_team_country": "Italy",
      "home_team_display_name": "Avellino",
      "home_team_id": 528,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/528.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Avellino",
      "home_team_public_id": "5IFk4mbSkOSUfK",
      "home_team_slug": "avellino",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "avellino",
      "league_country": "Italy",
      "league_country_display": "Italy",
      "league_display_name": "Serie B",
      "league_id": 136,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/136.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie B",
      "league_public_id": "5G7GlldQMogSrT",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-10-09 18:30:00",
      "public_id": "2t2wEXJo5X7TKd",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Second Half",
      "status_short": "2H",
      "venue_city": "Avellino",
      "venue_name": "Partenio-Adriano Lombardi"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4351,
            "best_odd": 2.675,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0096,
            "ev": -0.0456,
            "implied_prob": 0.3472,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3472,
              "draw": 0.305,
              "home": 0.3478
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3693,
            "p_final": 0.3568
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2851,
            "best_odd": 3.045,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0094,
            "ev": -0.0426,
            "implied_prob": 0.305,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3472,
              "draw": 0.305,
              "home": 0.3478
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3381,
            "p_final": 0.3144
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4127,
            "best_odd": 2.67,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0228,
            "ev": -0.1321,
            "implied_prob": 0.3478,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3472,
              "draw": 0.305,
              "home": 0.3478
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2926,
            "p_final": 0.325
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 2.86,
            "edge": 0.0196,
            "ev": 0.0562,
            "implied_prob": 0.3497,
            "model_prob": 0.3693
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 3.3,
            "edge": 0.0351,
            "ev": 0.1157,
            "implied_prob": 0.303,
            "model_prob": 0.3381
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 2.81,
            "edge": -0.0633,
            "ev": -0.1777,
            "implied_prob": 0.3559,
            "model_prob": 0.2926
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.4265,
          "alpha_yes": 0.4691,
          "best_no_odd": 2.25,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.8,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": 0.128,
          "edge_yes": -0.128,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.323,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0273,
          "ev_yes": -0.2584,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1795,
          "implied_no": 0.46,
          "implied_yes": 0.54,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.4265,
              "best_odd": 1.99,
              "edge": 0.0534,
              "ev": 0.0273,
              "implied_prob": 0.4629,
              "model_prob": 0.588,
              "p_final": 0.5162
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "high",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.4691,
              "best_odd": 1.715,
              "edge": -0.0587,
              "ev": -0.1795,
              "implied_prob": 0.5371,
              "model_prob": 0.412,
              "p_final": 0.4784
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "p_final_no": 0.5162,
          "p_final_yes": 0.4784,
          "prediction_confidence": "high",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.4261,
          "alpha_under": 0.4688,
          "best_over_odd": 2.11,
          "best_under_odd": 1.8,
          "consensus_over_odd": 2.0,
          "consensus_under_odd": 1.79,
          "edge_over": -0.1482,
          "edge_under": 0.1482,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.3227,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1844,
          "ev_under": 0.2222,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0715,
          "implied_over": 0.4692,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.4723,
          "implied_under": 0.5308,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.5277,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 8,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.4261,
              "best_odd": 2.0,
              "edge": -0.0645,
              "ev": -0.1844,
              "implied_prob": 0.4723,
              "model_prob": 0.321,
              "p_final": 0.4078
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "high",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.4688,
              "best_odd": 1.79,
              "edge": 0.0709,
              "ev": 0.0715,
              "implied_prob": 0.5277,
              "model_prob": 0.679,
              "p_final": 0.5986
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.4078,
          "p_final_under": 0.5986,
          "prediction_confidence": "high",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "avoid",
        "code": "no_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "stake_mult": 0.0,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "no_bet",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 1.99,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.323,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.323,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.323,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 3.0,
        "score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 3.0,
        "score_pre_penalty": 3.8
      },
      "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "no_bet",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "no_bet",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": false,
          "direction_key": "conflict",
          "gap_pp": 2.2,
          "key": "conflict",
          "label": "Disagree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "high",
          "probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
          "summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria."
        },
        "alignment_key": "conflict",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.323,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.323,
        "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
        "decision_strength": 3.0,
        "decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
        "decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
        "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
        "execution_confidence": 25,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "No Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": false,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sampdoria at 36.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Sampdoria as the value side (36.9%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
              "tone": "bad"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 2.2,
        "gates_failed": [
          "Reliability below 65"
        ],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "No Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u25cb",
        "label": "No Primary Bet",
        "market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Sampdoria",
        "no_primary_reasons": {
          "all_triggered": [
            "market_conflict",
            "market_quality",
            "calibration_risk"
          ],
          "calibration_mode": "soft",
          "codes": [
            "market_conflict",
            "market_quality"
          ],
          "label": "Reason",
          "other_factors": [
            {
              "code": "market_quality",
              "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
              "name": "Market Quality Risk",
              "short": "Market Quality Risk",
              "tone": "warn"
            }
          ],
          "other_label": "Other factors",
          "primary": {
            "code": "market_conflict",
            "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
            "name": "Market Conflict",
            "short": "Market Conflict",
            "subtype": "drift_against_model",
            "tone": "warn"
          },
          "secondary": {
            "code": "market_quality",
            "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
            "name": "Market Quality Risk",
            "short": "Market Quality Risk",
            "tone": "warn"
          },
          "version": "v1"
        },
        "outlier_detected": false,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
        "primary_allowed": false,
        "primary_block_explain": {
          "entries": [
            {
              "key": "positive_ev",
              "label": "Consensus EV +32.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
              "ok": true
            },
            {
              "key": "gate",
              "label": "Reliability below 65",
              "ok": false
            }
          ],
          "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
          "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
          "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
          "title": "Why not Primary?"
        },
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "warning"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "57 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "25 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "conflict"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+32.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 5,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": null,
        "reasons": [
          "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
          "Decision strength: 3.0/10",
          "Reliability below 65"
        ],
        "reliability_score": 57,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "observe",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": -0.0456,
          "consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
          "consensus_odds": 2.675,
          "disagreement_label": "Normal",
          "disagreement_level": "normal",
          "implied_prob": 0.3472,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.3693,
          "raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.3738317757009346,
          "raw_signal_ev": -0.0121,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.2%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": false,
          "calibration_status": "warning",
          "deviation_pct": -20.0,
          "reasons": [
            "Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
          ],
          "recommended_action": "monitor",
          "strength_delta": -1.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "low",
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "separation_score": -10,
            "strength_delta": -1.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.17
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "defensive",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.412,
          "draw_prob": 0.3381,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3693,
          "over_prob": 0.321,
          "total_xg": 1.99,
          "under_prob": 0.679,
          "xg_diff": 0.17
        },
        "type": "defensive",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 2.675,
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0096,
          "ev": -0.0456,
          "implied_prob": 0.3472,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.3693,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Sampdoria"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.4265,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 1.99,
            "edge": 0.0534,
            "market_prob": 0.4629,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.588,
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.4265,
              "best_odd": 1.99,
              "edge": 0.0534,
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-09T19:45:51.465033+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}