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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Talent Warszawa U19 Talent Warszawa U19 ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.78
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Talent Warszawa U19 win · Talent Warszawa U19 3–1 Raków Częstochowa U19
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1255abe887dab5ad0826d5a11f6030303661f1f1cc9bfcb5193c9ddd2d766abf",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19 and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Talent Warszawa U19",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1044,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2566,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.47
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Talent Warszawa U19 Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.9,
"market_odds": 3.47,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 12.3,
"prob_edge": 7.3,
"value_pct": 25.3,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Talent Warszawa U19 or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Talent Warszawa U19 or Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Talent Warszawa U19 or Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Talent Warszawa U19"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 25.3,
"implied_prob": 28.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Talent Warszawa U19 Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 3.47
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 50.02,
"draw": 24.33,
"home": 25.66
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 10:01:43",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 09:32:19",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Talent Warszawa U19",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.66,
"gap_pp": 10.44,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.33,
"gap_pp": 5.34,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.02,
"gap_pp": -15.78,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.4,
"gap_pp": -13.2,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.6,
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.47,
"early": 3.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.66,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.66,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.66,
"early": 3.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.33,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.33,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.78,
"early": 1.78,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.02,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.49,
"early": 1.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.4,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.4,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.37,
"early": 2.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1436,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0194,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.3831,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1974,
"best_odd": 1.475,
"edge": -0.0266,
"ev": -0.1294,
"implied_prob": 0.6169,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5903
},
"p_final": 0.4025,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2303,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0441,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1436,
"best_odd": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.0441,
"implied_prob": 0.3831,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4025
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.2,
"text": "-26.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.3,
"text": "+23.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2328,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10359.52,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1117,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0084,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.3795,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1117,
"best_odd": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.3795,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.388
},
"p_final": 0.388,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0488,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.1057,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1536,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1415,
"implied_prob": 0.6205,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6089
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1193,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.9,
"text": "+11.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2043,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.4,
"text": "-20.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1193,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10107.37,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19.",
"consensus_odds": 3.47,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0181,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.8,
"text": "-1.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2566,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0181,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.8,
"text": "-1.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2523,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Talent Warszawa U19",
"sort_key": 1795.475,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.78,
"hero_label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19",
"market_prob_pct": 25.7,
"market_team": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Talent Warszawa U19",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2524,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Talent Warszawa U19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Talent Warszawa U19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Talent Warszawa U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0181,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2566,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2881844380403458,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2523,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (16 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 15.78,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 15.78,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Talent Warszawa U19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2524,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Talent Warszawa U19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Talent Warszawa U19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Talent Warszawa U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0181,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2566,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2881844380403458,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2523,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Talent Warszawa U19 1.32 xG vs Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19 1.28 \u2192 Talent Warszawa U19 36.1%",
"Market: Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19 ~25.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Talent Warszawa U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Talent Warszawa U19, but market pricing diverges by 16 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 10.45,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Talent Warszawa U19",
"market_prob": 25.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.32,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.78,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19",
"market_prob": 50.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.69,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.69,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.55,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.55,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -15.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19",
"market_prob_pct": 50.02,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Talent Warszawa U19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19\u0027s win probability at 50.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 15.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 15.78,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Talent Warszawa U19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 25.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Talent Warszawa U19 1.32 xG vs Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19 1.28 \u2192 Talent Warszawa U19 36.1%",
"Market: Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19 ~25.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Talent Warszawa U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Talent Warszawa U19, but market pricing diverges by 16 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.78,
"hero_label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19 than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19 (pricing gap 15.8 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.78,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19",
"largest_gap_pp": -15.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 10.45,
"edge_pp": 10.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Talent Warszawa U19",
"market_prob_pct": 25.66,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.32,
"edge_pp": 5.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.33,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -15.78,
"edge_pp": -15.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19",
"market_prob_pct": 50.02,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19 (25.7%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Talent Warszawa U19, Market \u2192 Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.18,
"closing_odds": 1.78,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.18,
"entry_odds": 1.78,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/5",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"pick_team": "Talent Warszawa U19",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_team_name": "Talent Warszawa U19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "rakow-czestochowa-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19",
"away_team_id": 20594,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20594.webp",
"away_team_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19",
"away_team_public_id": "1Ut9UOOIs69Ecd",
"away_team_slug": "rakow-czestochowa-u19",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1599399,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "Talent Warszawa U19",
"home_team_id": 28017,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "Talent Warszawa U19",
"home_team_public_id": "2XRQP3Wh9HhRev",
"home_team_slug": null,
"ht.home_team_slug": null,
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "Central Youth League",
"league_id": 676,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/676.webp",
"league_name": "Central Youth League",
"league_public_id": "2cr5dtvIPlsE13",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 10:00:00",
"public_id": "1wha5bGYy2NzwX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.458,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0723,
"ev": -0.2383,
"implied_prob": 0.5002,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5002,
"draw": 0.2433,
"home": 0.2566
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4279
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.276,
"best_odd": 3.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0557,
"implied_prob": 0.2433,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5002,
"draw": 0.2433,
"home": 0.2566
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.258
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.253,
"best_odd": 3.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0264,
"ev": -0.0181,
"implied_prob": 0.2566,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5002,
"draw": 0.2433,
"home": 0.2566
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.283
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.2194,
"ev": -0.3905,
"implied_prob": 0.5618,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.66,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": 0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.2732,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.47,
"edge": 0.0727,
"ev": 0.2524,
"implied_prob": 0.2882,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1117,
"alpha_yes": 0.1536,
"best_no_odd": 2.46,
"best_yes_odd": 1.46,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0755,
"edge_yes": -0.0755,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1193,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1057,
"ev_yes": -0.2043,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1415,
"implied_no": 0.3795,
"implied_yes": 0.6205,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1117,
"best_odd": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.3795,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.388
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1536,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1415,
"implied_prob": 0.6205,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6089
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.388,
"p_final_yes": 0.6089,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1974,
"alpha_under": 0.1436,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.475,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.375,
"edge_over": -0.1269,
"edge_under": 0.1269,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1294,
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0441,
"implied_over": 0.6089,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6169,
"implied_under": 0.3911,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3831,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1974,
"best_odd": 1.475,
"edge": -0.0266,
"ev": -0.1294,
"implied_prob": 0.6169,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5903
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1436,
"best_odd": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.0441,
"implied_prob": 0.3831,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4025
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5903,
"p_final_under": 0.4025,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2524,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2524,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Talent Warszawa U19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Talent Warszawa U19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Talent Warszawa U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Talent Warszawa U19, but the model still strongly favours Talent Warszawa U19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0181,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2566,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2881844380403458,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2523,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.47,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0264,
"ev": -0.0181,
"implied_prob": 0.2566,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Talent Warszawa U19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1117,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0084,
"market_prob": 0.3795,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1117,
"best_odd": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.3795,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.388
},
"p_final": 0.388,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.1057,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1536,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1415,
"implied_prob": 0.6205,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6089
}
},
"edge": 0.0755,
"ev": 0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.3795,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1436,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0194,
"market_prob": 0.3831,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1974,
"best_odd": 1.475,
"edge": -0.0266,
"ev": -0.1294,
"implied_prob": 0.6169,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5903
},
"p_final": 0.4025,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0441,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1436,
"best_odd": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.0441,
"implied_prob": 0.3831,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4025
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1269,
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.3911,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1599399,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2328,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.3795,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.3795,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa U19",
"home": "Talent Warszawa U19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.084413,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.3911,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0181,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2566,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2881844380403458,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2523,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1599399,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T10:01:44.958015+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Central Youth League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa U19 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Śląsk Wrocław U19 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Wisła Kraków U19 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Talent Warszawa U19 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Miedź Legnica U19 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Zagłębie Lubin U19 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia U19 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Raków Częstochowa U19 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Lech Poznań U19 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Arkonia U19 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Górnik Zabrze U19 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Stal Rzeszów U19 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 | Korona Kielce U19 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Polonia Warszawa U19 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Arka Gdynia U19 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | Escola Varsovia U19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa U19 | 8 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Raków Częstochowa U19 | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 | Talent Warszawa U19 | 8 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 12 |
| 4 | Wisła Kraków U19 | 7 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 12 |
| 5 | Śląsk Wrocław U19 | 8 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 17 |
| 6 | Jagiellonia U19 | 7 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin U19 | 7 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Polonia Warszawa U19 | 7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Lech Poznań U19 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Arka Gdynia U19 | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Miedź Legnica U19 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Górnik Zabrze U19 | 8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Arkonia U19 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce U19 | 7 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Stal Rzeszów U19 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Escola Varsovia U19 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 6 |
