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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Gil Vicente U23 Gil Vicente U23 ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.83
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Gil Vicente U23 win · Gil Vicente U23 2–0 Portimonense U23
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.2793,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.462,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.292,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.58,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.42,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.33,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.46,
"home_win_prob": 0.4286,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Portimonense U23",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Portimonense U23"
},
"away_xg": 1.14,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Gil Vicente U23",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0709,
"edge_gap": 0.1367,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4996,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 27.9,
"draw": 29.2,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.83
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.83,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Gil Vicente U23 Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.0,
"market_odds": 1.83,
"model_odds": 2.33,
"overround": 9.4,
"prob_edge": -11.7,
"value_pct": -21.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 68.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 76.8,
"no_prob": 46.2,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 53.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 53.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.14,
"home_expected": 1.46,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Gil Vicente U23 or Draw",
"prob": 72.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Gil Vicente U23 or Portimonense U23",
"prob": 70.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Portimonense U23",
"prob": 57.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Gil Vicente U23 or Draw",
"pick_prob": 72.1
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 27.9,
"draw_pct": 29.2,
"home_pct": 42.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Gil Vicente U23"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 7.5,
"implied_prob": 27.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.2,
"odds": 3.68
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Portimonense U23",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 25.19,
"draw": 24.85,
"home": 49.96
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 09:59:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 09:29:09",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Gil Vicente U23",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.96,
"gap_pp": -7.09,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 42.88
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.85,
"gap_pp": 4.37,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.21
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.19,
"gap_pp": 2.72,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 27.91
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.15,
"gap_pp": -6.95,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.85,
"gap_pp": 6.95,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.83,
"early": 1.83,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.96,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.96,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.68,
"early": 3.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.85,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.63,
"early": 3.63,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.7,
"early": 1.7,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.15,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.15,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.09,
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"implied_closing_pct": 44.85,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.1,
"ev": -0.008,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.46,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0137,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.4501,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5348
},
"p_final": 0.4639,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0567,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0537,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4639
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.1,
"text": "-18.1%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0878,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10229.02,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2155,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.006,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"market_prob": 0.434,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.462,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2155,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.434,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.44
},
"p_final": 0.44,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0298,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.076,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2371,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0994,
"implied_prob": 0.566,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.5594
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0067,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.7,
"text": "-0.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1123,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.2,
"text": "-11.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0067,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 46.2,
"sort_key": 1798.325,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.8
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1552,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.5,
"text": "-15.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4996,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0406,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.1,
"text": "-4.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Gil Vicente U23",
"sort_key": 1789.85,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.1,
"hero_label": "Gil Vicente U23",
"market_prob_pct": 50.0,
"market_team": "Gil Vicente U23",
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"model_team": "Gil Vicente U23",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gil Vicente U23)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gil Vicente U23)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gil Vicente U23 at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gil Vicente U23 as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gil Vicente U23",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gil Vicente U23).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1552,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4996,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.1,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.1,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.14,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.46,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.46,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.46 \u00b7 Away xG 1.14 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +8%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Gil Vicente U23",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gil Vicente U23).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gil Vicente U23)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gil Vicente U23)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gil Vicente U23 at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gil Vicente U23 as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gil Vicente U23",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gil Vicente U23).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1552,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4996,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gil Vicente U23 1.46 xG vs Portimonense U23 1.14 \u2192 Gil Vicente U23 42.9%",
"Market: Gil Vicente U23 ~50.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Gil Vicente U23 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Gil Vicente U23 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.1,
"fair_prob": 42.86,
"label": "Gil Vicente U23",
"market_prob": 49.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.35,
"fair_prob": 29.2,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.74,
"fair_prob": 27.93,
"label": "Portimonense U23",
"market_prob": 25.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.03,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.03,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.85,
"fair_prob": 53.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.85,
"fair_prob": 46.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.86,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Gil Vicente U23",
"market_prob_pct": 49.96,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Gil Vicente U23"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Gil Vicente U23\u0027s win probability at 50.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.1,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Gil Vicente U23",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.1,
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Gil Vicente U23 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gil Vicente U23 1.46 xG vs Portimonense U23 1.14 \u2192 Gil Vicente U23 42.9%",
"Market: Gil Vicente U23 ~50.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Gil Vicente U23 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Gil Vicente U23 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.1,
"hero_label": "Gil Vicente U23",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Gil Vicente U23. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Gil Vicente U23 relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Gil Vicente U23. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Gil Vicente U23 above the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.1,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.7 pp (at 42.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.7,
"max_prob_pct": 42.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Gil Vicente U23",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Gil Vicente U23 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.1,
"edge_pp": -7.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.86,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gil Vicente U23",
"market_prob_pct": 49.96,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.35,
"edge_pp": 4.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.85,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.74,
"edge_pp": 2.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.93,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Portimonense U23",
"market_prob_pct": 25.19,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Gil Vicente U23 relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gil Vicente U23 (50.0%).",
"Gil Vicente U23 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.64,
"closing_odds": 1.83,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.64,
"entry_odds": 1.83,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 1.73,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.73,
"pick_team": "Gil Vicente U23",
"steam_score": 13,
"steam_team_name": "Gil Vicente U23",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "portimonense-u23",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Portimonense U23",
"away_team_id": 15467,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15467.webp",
"away_team_name": "Portimonense U23",
"away_team_public_id": "4nsbV8HPj02eFS",
"away_team_slug": "portimonense-u23",
"country_code": "PT",
"country_display_name": "Portugal",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_id": 129,
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1598685,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Portugal",
"home_team_display_name": "Gil Vicente U23",
"home_team_id": 19825,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/19825.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gil Vicente U23",
"home_team_public_id": "5HGrxX471QtEIp",
"home_team_slug": "gil-vicente-u23",
"ht.home_team_slug": "gil-vicente-u23",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_country_display": "Portugal",
"league_display_name": "Liga Revela\u00e7\u00e3o (U23)",
"league_id": 701,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/701.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Revela\u00e7\u00e3o (U23)",
"league_public_id": "1aNelfakQBOxux",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 10:00:00",
"public_id": "43fZRBWrU0cGQQ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2878,
"best_odd": 3.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0572,
"implied_prob": 0.2519,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2519,
"draw": 0.2485,
"home": 0.4996
},
"model_prob": 0.2791,
"p_final": 0.2597
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2804,
"best_odd": 3.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0406,
"implied_prob": 0.2485,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2519,
"draw": 0.2485,
"home": 0.4996
},
"model_prob": 0.2921,
"p_final": 0.2607
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5362,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.038,
"ev": -0.1552,
"implied_prob": 0.4996,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2519,
"draw": 0.2485,
"home": 0.4996
},
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"p_final": 0.4617
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.63,
"edge": 0.0036,
"ev": 0.013,
"implied_prob": 0.2755,
"model_prob": 0.2791
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.68,
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": 0.075,
"implied_prob": 0.2717,
"model_prob": 0.2921
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.1177,
"ev": -0.2153,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.4288
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2155,
"alpha_yes": 0.2371,
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0285,
"edge_yes": -0.0285,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0067,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.076,
"ev_yes": -0.1123,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0994,
"implied_no": 0.4335,
"implied_yes": 0.5665,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2155,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.434,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.44
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2371,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0994,
"implied_prob": 0.566,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.5594
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.44,
"p_final_yes": 0.5594,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2223,
"alpha_under": 0.2021,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.04,
"edge_over": -0.0703,
"edge_under": 0.0703,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1069,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0537,
"implied_over": 0.5523,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5499,
"implied_under": 0.4477,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4501,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5348
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4639
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5348,
"p_final_under": 0.4639,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gil Vicente U23)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gil Vicente U23 at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gil Vicente U23 as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gil Vicente U23",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gil Vicente U23).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1552,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4996,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
"draw_prob": 0.2921,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4288,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.32
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.038,
"ev": -0.1552,
"implied_prob": 0.4996,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Gil Vicente U23"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2155,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.006,
"market_prob": 0.434,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.462,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2155,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.434,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.44
},
"p_final": 0.44,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.076,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2371,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0994,
"implied_prob": 0.566,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.5594
}
},
"edge": 0.0285,
"ev": -0.0067,
"implied_prob": 0.4335,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0137,
"market_prob": 0.4501,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5348
},
"p_final": 0.4639,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0537,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4639
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0703,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1598685,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2791,
"draw": 0.2921,
"home": 0.4288
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Portimonense U23",
"home": "Gil Vicente U23"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1552,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4996,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1598685,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:59:06.629287+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Gil Vicente U23 & Portimonense U23!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga Revelação (U23) — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP U23 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu U23 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 | Farense U23 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Estoril U23 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Sporting Braga U23 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Vizela U23 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Benfica U23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Rio Ave U23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente U23 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Famalicão U23 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Santa Clara U23 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Moreirense U23 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Felgueiras U23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | União Leiria U23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Leixões U23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 16 | Torreense U23 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 17 | Penafiel U23 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| 18 | Estrela U23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 19 | Portimonense U23 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 20 | Marítimo U23 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP U23 | 7 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu U23 | 7 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 3 | Estoril U23 | 6 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Famalicão U23 | 7 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 8 |
| 5 | Leixões U23 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Sporting Braga U23 | 7 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Farense U23 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Benfica U23 | 7 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Moreirense U23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente U23 | 7 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Penafiel U23 | 6 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Vizela U23 | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 13 | Felgueiras U23 | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 14 | Torreense U23 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Rio Ave U23 | 5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 16 | União Leiria U23 | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 17 | Estrela U23 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | Marítimo U23 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |
| 19 | Portimonense U23 | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 20 | Santa Clara U23 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
