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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Vitória Guimarães B AD Marco 09 ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.08
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
AD Marco 09 win · AD Marco 09 1–0 Vitória Guimarães B
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "b07aedb9d45e6bdf0946d72ff92731a9304cac5adbcfed07596ae5950d47cf81",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"away_win_prob": 0.3564,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.81,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.88,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"home_win_prob": 0.347,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : AD Marco 09",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "AD Marco 09"
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0549,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.301,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.6,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.08
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.08,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.32,
"market_odds": 3.08,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 7.9,
"prob_edge": 3.1,
"value_pct": 9.6,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 72.5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.31,
"home_expected": 1.29,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "AD Marco 09 or Draw",
"prob": 64.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "AD Marco 09 or Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"prob": 65.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "AD Marco 09 or Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 9.6,
"implied_prob": 32.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B Win",
"model_prob": 35.6,
"odds": 3.08
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 30.1,
"draw": 30.1,
"home": 39.79
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 15:01:44",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 14:34:06",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "AD Marco 09",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.79,
"gap_pp": -5.07,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.1,
"gap_pp": -0.42,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.1,
"gap_pp": 5.49,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.86,
"gap_pp": 4.34,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.14,
"gap_pp": -4.34,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.33,
"early": 2.33,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.79,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.08,
"early": 3.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.1,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.08,
"early": 3.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.15,
"early": 2.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.86,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.86,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.68,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.14,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.8,
"ev": -0.181,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.29,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2116,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0084,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4424,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2116,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.0624,
"implied_prob": 0.4424,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4507
},
"p_final": 0.4507,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0026,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0624,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2328,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.0951,
"implied_prob": 0.5576,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5484
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.9,
"text": "-11.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0363,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.67,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0094,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.5,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1072,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4906
},
"p_final": 0.5094,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0081,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0728,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0728,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5094
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.8,
"text": "-15.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0081,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.8,
"text": "-0.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0081,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 1797.975,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B.",
"consensus_odds": 3.08,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0263,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.6,
"text": "-2.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0263,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.6,
"text": "-2.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"sort_key": 1793.425,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.54,
"hero_label": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"market_prob_pct": 30.1,
"market_team": "AD Marco 09",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0963,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +10% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1597768 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +10% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0263,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3246753246753247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/7",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.54,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.54,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "AD Marco 09",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0963,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +10% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1597768 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +10% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0263,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3246753246753247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: AD Marco 09 1.29 xG vs Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B 1.31 \u2192 Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B 35.6%",
"Market: AD Marco 09 ~30.1% implied",
"Market Steam: AD Marco 09 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.09,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "AD Marco 09",
"market_prob": 39.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.45,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.54,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"market_prob": 30.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.96,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.24,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.96,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.76,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.45,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.45,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"market_prob_pct": 30.1,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "AD Marco 09"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B\u0027s win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 30.1%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.54,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.5,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: AD Marco 09 1.29 xG vs Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B 1.31 \u2192 Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B 35.6%",
"Market: AD Marco 09 ~30.1% implied",
"Market Steam: AD Marco 09 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.54,
"hero_label": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, AD Marco 09 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on AD Marco 09.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B.",
"However, AD Marco 09 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on AD Marco 09."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B.",
"At the same time, AD Marco 09 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on AD Marco 09."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.54,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.5,
"lead": "The model rates Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.09,
"edge_pp": -5.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "AD Marco 09",
"market_prob_pct": 39.79,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.45,
"edge_pp": -0.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.1,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.54,
"edge_pp": 5.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"market_prob_pct": 30.1,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on AD Marco 09.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers AD Marco 09 (30.1%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B, Market \u2192 AD Marco 09, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.47,
"closing_odds": 3.08,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.47,
"entry_odds": 3.08,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "AD Marco 09",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "AD Marco 09",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "guimaraes-b",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"away_team_id": 232,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/232.webp",
"away_team_name": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"away_team_public_id": "1oJSDDVLtNvT68",
"away_team_slug": "guimaraes-b",
"country_code": "PT",
"country_display_name": "Portugal",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_id": 129,
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1597768,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Portugal",
"home_team_display_name": "AD Marco 09",
"home_team_id": 22089,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22089.webp",
"home_team_name": "AD Marco 09",
"home_team_public_id": "5cCRhjAzcloyqE",
"home_team_slug": "ad-marco-09",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ad-marco-09",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_country_display": "Portugal",
"league_display_name": "Liga 3",
"league_id": 865,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/865.webp",
"league_name": "Liga 3",
"league_public_id": "4oLVo6lezexDxy",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 15:00:00",
"public_id": "2txkxU6orjUBbS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Marco de Canaveses",
"venue_name": "Municipal de Marco de Canaveses"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2753,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0263,
"implied_prob": 0.301,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.301,
"draw": 0.301,
"home": 0.3979
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3161
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2981,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0013,
"ev": -0.0767,
"implied_prob": 0.301,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.301,
"draw": 0.301,
"home": 0.3979
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2998
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4158,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0211,
"ev": -0.1219,
"implied_prob": 0.3979,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.301,
"draw": 0.301,
"home": 0.3979
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3769
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": 0.0313,
"ev": 0.0963,
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": -0.0279,
"ev": -0.0859,
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": -0.0819,
"ev": -0.1908,
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2098,
"alpha_yes": 0.2098,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.82,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0445,
"edge_yes": 0.0445,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1072,
"ev_yes": -0.0081,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0728,
"implied_no": 0.4995,
"implied_yes": 0.5005,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1072,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4906
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0728,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5094
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4906,
"p_final_yes": 0.5094,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2116,
"alpha_under": 0.2328,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.08,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.65,
"edge_over": 0.0396,
"edge_under": -0.0396,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0624,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0951,
"implied_over": 0.4424,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4424,
"implied_under": 0.5576,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5576,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2116,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.0624,
"implied_prob": 0.4424,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4507
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2328,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.0951,
"implied_prob": 0.5576,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5484
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4507,
"p_final_under": 0.5484,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0963,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.2
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0963,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +10% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1597768 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +10% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced AD Marco 09, but the model still strongly favours Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0263,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3246753246753247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0363,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4424,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.08,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0263,
"implied_prob": 0.301,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0094,
"market_prob": 0.5,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1072,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4906
},
"p_final": 0.5094,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0728,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0728,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5094
}
},
"edge": 0.0445,
"ev": -0.0081,
"implied_prob": 0.5005,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2116,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0084,
"market_prob": 0.4424,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2116,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.0624,
"implied_prob": 0.4424,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4507
},
"p_final": 0.4507,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0624,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2328,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.0951,
"implied_prob": 0.5576,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5484
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0396,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4424,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1597768,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0363,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es B",
"home": "AD Marco 09"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0263,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3246753246753247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1597768,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T15:01:46.329512+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho AD Marco 09 & Vitória Guimarães B!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga 3 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Paredes | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Varzim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Fafe | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Mafra | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Vianense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 5 | Louletano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Leça | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Vitória Guimarães B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | SC Covilha | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Trofense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Caldas | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | São João Ver | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 9 | União Santarém | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Paços de Ferreira | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 4 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 | Mafra | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Atlético CP | 4 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 10 |
| 4 | Varzim | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Fafe | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 8 |
| 6 | Oliveirense | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | Louletano | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Leça | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 10 | Paredes | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 11 | Vianense | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 |
| 12 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Vitória Guimarães B | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | SC Covilha | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Paços de Ferreira | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 |
| 16 | Caldas | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 17 | União Santarém | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Vitória de Sernache | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 1 |
| 19 | São João Ver | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Trofense | 5 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 |
