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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Berkhamsted Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.79
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Evesham United 0–0 Berkhamsted
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "890420a1f58296f445d13e217353e5a5295630ec5ea222712bfb8f32362ed068",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.44,
"away_win_prob": 0.4188,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.46,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2931,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.39,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.41,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.47,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.16,
"home_win_prob": 0.2881,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Berkhamsted and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Berkhamsted"
},
"away_xg": 1.44,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Berkhamsted",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0214,
"edge_gap": 0.1252,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.397,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.8,
"draw": 29.3,
"home": 28.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.28
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.28,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Berkhamsted Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.52,
"market_odds": 2.28,
"model_odds": 2.39,
"overround": 10.5,
"prob_edge": -2.0,
"value_pct": -4.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 76.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 68.7,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.44,
"home_expected": 1.16,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Evesham United or Draw",
"prob": 58.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Evesham United or Berkhamsted",
"prob": 70.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Berkhamsted",
"prob": 71.2
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Berkhamsted",
"pick_prob": 71.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 41.9,
"draw_pct": 29.3,
"home_pct": 28.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Berkhamsted"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -4.6,
"implied_prob": 43.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Berkhamsted Win",
"model_prob": 41.8,
"odds": 2.28
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Berkhamsted",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 39.7,
"draw": 27.85,
"home": 32.44
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 14:12:27",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:48:21",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Evesham United",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.44,
"gap_pp": -3.62,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 28.82
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.85,
"gap_pp": 1.48,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.33
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.7,
"gap_pp": 2.14,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 41.85
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.4,
"gap_pp": -6.2,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.6,
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.79,
"early": 2.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.44,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.25,
"early": 3.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.85,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.85,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.28,
"early": 2.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.7,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.7,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.71,
"early": 1.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.4,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.4,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.04,
"early": 2.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.9,
"ev": -0.07,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.16,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0122,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.4582,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2253,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1019,
"implied_prob": 0.5418,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5283
},
"p_final": 0.4705,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0412,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0544,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.4582,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4705
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.7,
"text": "-15.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0619,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10205.71,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.168,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0074,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4157,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.46,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.168,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0691,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.4231
},
"p_final": 0.4231,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.012,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0691,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.231,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.5843,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.5741
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.035,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.5,
"text": "+3.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1522,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.2,
"text": "-15.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.035,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"sort_key": 10031.5,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0735,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.3,
"text": "-7.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.397,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0735,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.3,
"text": "-7.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0458,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Berkhamsted",
"sort_key": 1781.625,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"alert_team": "Berkhamsted",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.63,
"hero_label": "Evesham United",
"market_prob_pct": 39.7,
"market_team": "Berkhamsted",
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_team": "Berkhamsted",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berkhamsted)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berkhamsted)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Berkhamsted at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Berkhamsted as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Berkhamsted",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berkhamsted).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0735,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.397,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0458,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.42857142857142855,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.3,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.63,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.63,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.44,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.16,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.44,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.16 \u00b7 Away xG 1.44 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"steam_team": "Berkhamsted",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berkhamsted).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berkhamsted)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berkhamsted)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Berkhamsted at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Berkhamsted as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Berkhamsted",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berkhamsted).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0735,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.397,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0458,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Evesham United 1.16 xG vs Berkhamsted 1.44 \u2192 Berkhamsted 41.9%",
"Market: Berkhamsted ~39.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Berkhamsted \u2193 -10.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Berkhamsted with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.63,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "Evesham United",
"market_prob": 32.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.46,
"fair_prob": 29.31,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.18,
"fair_prob": 41.88,
"label": "Berkhamsted",
"market_prob": 39.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.79,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.79,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.29,
"fair_prob": 54.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.29,
"fair_prob": 46.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Evesham United",
"market_prob_pct": 32.44,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Berkhamsted"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.63,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Berkhamsted",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.2,
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Berkhamsted \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Evesham United 1.16 xG vs Berkhamsted 1.44 \u2192 Berkhamsted 41.9%",
"Market: Berkhamsted ~39.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Berkhamsted \u2193 -10.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Berkhamsted with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.63,
"hero_label": "Evesham United",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Berkhamsted odds shortened \u2193 -10.2%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Berkhamsted, with odds shortening by 10.2%. Confirmation remains limited (3/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Berkhamsted \u2014 odds shortened by 10.2%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Berkhamsted, with odds shortening by 10.2%. Confirmation remains limited (3/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on Berkhamsted \u2014 odds shortened by 10.2%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Berkhamsted has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 10.2%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.63,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.6 pp (at 41.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.6,
"max_prob_pct": 41.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Evesham United",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.6,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.6,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.63,
"edge_pp": -3.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Evesham United",
"market_prob_pct": 32.44,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.46,
"edge_pp": 1.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.85,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.18,
"edge_pp": 2.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Berkhamsted",
"market_prob_pct": 39.7,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Berkhamsted \u2014 odds shortened by 10.2%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Berkhamsted (39.7%).",
"Berkhamsted has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -10.2%, 3/7).",
"Berkhamsted \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.84,
"closing_odds": 2.79,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.84,
"entry_odds": 2.79,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Berkhamsted (10.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.45",
"2.33",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.45 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 2m",
"pick_team": "Berkhamsted",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.45,
2.28,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,12.2 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.45,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Berkhamsted",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Berkhamsted",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "Berkhamsted",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_team_name": "Berkhamsted",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "berkhamsted",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Berkhamsted",
"away_team_id": 7214,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7214.webp",
"away_team_name": "Berkhamsted",
"away_team_public_id": "5xcIZhFXGL7wuu",
"away_team_slug": "berkhamsted",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1597334,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Evesham United",
"home_team_id": 7640,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7640.webp",
"home_team_name": "Evesham United",
"home_team_public_id": "30gsVUm7Ul1ONd",
"home_team_slug": "evesham-united",
"ht.home_team_slug": "evesham-united",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Non League Premier - Southern South",
"league_id": 60,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/60.webp",
"league_name": "Non League Premier - Southern South",
"league_public_id": "4cMIwTdSTRAPR7",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00",
"public_id": "38HKbINrvQw3AF",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4355,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.397,
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"away": 0.397,
"draw": 0.2785,
"home": 0.3244
},
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"draw": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"ev": -0.0807,
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1378,
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"away": 0.397,
"draw": 0.2785,
"home": 0.3244
},
"model_prob": 0.2882,
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}
},
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"away": {
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": -0.0201,
"ev": -0.0459,
"implied_prob": 0.4386,
"model_prob": 0.4185
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": -0.0144,
"ev": -0.0468,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.2933
},
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"home": {
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": -0.0702,
"ev": -0.1958,
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}
},
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"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1016,
"implied_no": 0.4171,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"no": {
"alpha": 0.168,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0074,
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},
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"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.5843,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.5741
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4231,
"p_final_yes": 0.5741,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2253,
"alpha_under": 0.2048,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.01,
"edge_over": -0.0579,
"edge_under": 0.0579,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1019,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0544,
"implied_over": 0.5399,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5418,
"implied_under": 0.4601,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4582,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2253,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1019,
"implied_prob": 0.5418,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5283
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.4582,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4705
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5283,
"p_final_under": 0.4705,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berkhamsted)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Berkhamsted at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Berkhamsted as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Berkhamsted",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Berkhamsted).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0735,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.397,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0458,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"draw_prob": 0.2933,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4185,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.397,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Berkhamsted"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.168,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0074,
"market_prob": 0.4157,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.46,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.168,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0691,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.4231
},
"p_final": 0.4231,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0691,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.231,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.5843,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.5741
}
},
"edge": 0.0429,
"ev": 0.035,
"implied_prob": 0.4171,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0122,
"market_prob": 0.4582,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2253,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1019,
"implied_prob": 0.5418,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5283
},
"p_final": 0.4705,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0544,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.4582,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4705
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0579,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1597334,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4185,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.2882
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Berkhamsted",
"home": "Evesham United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0735,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.397,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0458,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1597334,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T14:12:29.615268+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Evesham United & Berkhamsted!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Non League Premier - Southern South — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uxbridge | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 2 | Plymouth Parkway | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Hanworth Villa | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Frome Town | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Taunton Town | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Chichester City | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Chertsey Town | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Berkhamsted | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Poole Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Evesham United | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Bath City | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Yate Town | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Gosport Borough | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Basingstoke Town | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Sholing | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 16 | Chippenham Town | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 17 | Bracknell Town | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 18 | Wimborne Town | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 19 | Gloucester City | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 20 | Hanwell Town | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 21 | Havant & Waterlooville | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 22 | Malvern Town | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taunton Town | 6 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 12 |
| 2 | Plymouth Parkway | 6 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 13 |
| 3 | Uxbridge | 6 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 | Chertsey Town | 6 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 10 |
| 5 | Hanworth Villa | 6 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 13 |
| 6 | Chichester City | 6 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 12 |
| 7 | Basingstoke Town | 6 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Evesham United | 6 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | Frome Town | 6 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 12 |
| 10 | Berkhamsted | 6 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Gloucester City | 6 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 5 |
| 12 | Bracknell Town | 6 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 |
| 13 | Gosport Borough | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Poole Town | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Yate Town | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Chippenham Town | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Havant & Waterlooville | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Malvern Town | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 2 |
| 19 | Bath City | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 20 | Sholing | 6 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 21 | Wimborne Town | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 22 | Hanwell Town | 6 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 5 |
