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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Alfreton Town win · Alfreton Town 1–0 Guiseley AFC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "216db2ae6eb3c9fa39df827b296c9d48d941e47790cc07bbf6dd09a7167bc1c2",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"away_win_prob": 0.3377,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.96,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.73,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"home_win_prob": 0.3659,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Guiseley AFC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Guiseley AFC"
},
"away_xg": 1.27,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Alfreton Town",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0113,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3772,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 33.8,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 36.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.43
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.43,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Alfreton Town Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.65,
"market_odds": 2.43,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": -4.5,
"value_pct": -11.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 71.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 73.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.27,
"home_expected": 1.33,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Alfreton Town or Draw",
"prob": 66.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Alfreton Town or Guiseley AFC",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Guiseley AFC",
"prob": 63.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Alfreton Town or Guiseley AFC",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.8,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Alfreton Town"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 9.8,
"implied_prob": 27.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.71
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Guiseley AFC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 37.57,
"draw": 24.71,
"home": 37.72
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-29 18:44:41",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-29 18:14:30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Alfreton Town",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 1.08,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.72,
"gap_pp": -1.13,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.71,
"gap_pp": 4.94,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.57,
"gap_pp": -3.81,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.92,
"gap_pp": -9.72,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.08,
"gap_pp": 9.72,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.43,
"early": 2.36,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.72,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.63,
"implied_early_pct": 38.36,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.71,
"early": 3.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.71,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.44,
"implied_early_pct": 25.14,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.44,
"early": 2.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.07,
"implied_early_pct": 36.5,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.62,
"early": 1.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.08,
"implied_early_pct": 56.84,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.23,
"early": 2.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.08,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.08,
"implied_early_pct": 43.16,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.5,
"ev": 0.0437,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.35,
"market_prob": 0.1198,
"market_prob_pct": 12.0,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.33,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2049,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0122,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.4583,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2253,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0134,
"ev": -0.1284,
"implied_prob": 0.5417,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5282
},
"p_final": 0.4706,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0101,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0824,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2049,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0824,
"implied_prob": 0.4583,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4706
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.8,
"text": "-10.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1189,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.9,
"text": "+11.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1189,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10257.01,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2116,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0084,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4152,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2116,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.0871,
"implied_prob": 0.4152,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4236
},
"p_final": 0.4236,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0195,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0871,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2327,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0093,
"ev": -0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.5848,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5755
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.7,
"text": "+4.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.128,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.8,
"text": "-12.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0465,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10041.85,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town.",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0954,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.5,
"text": "-9.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3772,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0324,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.2,
"text": "-3.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1106,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Alfreton Town",
"sort_key": 1791.9,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"alert_team": "Alfreton Town",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.93,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 37.7,
"market_team": "Alfreton Town",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Alfreton Town",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alfreton Town at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alfreton Town as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alfreton Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0954,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3772,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4115226337448559,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1106,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.93,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.93,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"steam_team": "Alfreton Town",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alfreton Town at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alfreton Town as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alfreton Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0954,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3772,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4115226337448559,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1106,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Alfreton Town 1.33 xG vs Guiseley AFC 1.27 \u2192 Alfreton Town 36.6%",
"Market: Alfreton Town ~37.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Alfreton Town odds \u2191 +13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Alfreton Town, but the market has moved away from Alfreton Town.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.13,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Alfreton Town",
"market_prob": 37.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.93,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.8,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Guiseley AFC",
"market_prob": 37.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.38,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.38,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.54,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.04,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.54,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.96,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.71,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Alfreton Town"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.93,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Alfreton Town",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.1,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Alfreton Town 1.33 xG vs Guiseley AFC 1.27 \u2192 Alfreton Town 36.6%",
"Market: Alfreton Town ~37.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Alfreton Town odds \u2191 +13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Alfreton Town, but the market has moved away from Alfreton Town.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.93,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Alfreton Town odds lengthened \u2191 +13.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Alfreton Town has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Alfreton Town \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Alfreton Town has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Alfreton Town \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Alfreton Town has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.3%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.93,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.13,
"edge_pp": -1.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Alfreton Town",
"market_prob_pct": 37.72,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.93,
"edge_pp": 4.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.71,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.8,
"edge_pp": -3.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Guiseley AFC",
"market_prob_pct": 37.57,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Alfreton Town \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Alfreton Town (37.7%).",
"However, Alfreton Town has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +13.3%, 5/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Alfreton Town, Market \u2192 Alfreton Town, while Alfreton Town odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.95,
"closing_odds": 3.71,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.95,
"entry_odds": 3.71,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.5
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.38,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Alfreton Town (13.3%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.43",
"2.27",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.42 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.38",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 45m",
"pick_team": "Alfreton Town",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.42"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.38"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.1,
2.43,
2.36,
2.38
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,3.8 56.0,2.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.43"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.38"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.1,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/8 sportsbooks on Alfreton Town",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Alfreton Town",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.38,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"summary": "Market moved away from Alfreton Town while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Alfreton Town",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.38,
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Alfreton Town",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "Alfreton Town",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "guiseley-afc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Guiseley AFC",
"away_team_id": 1824,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1824.webp",
"away_team_name": "Guiseley AFC",
"away_team_public_id": "0jOgU3eQRzKzkT",
"away_team_slug": "guiseley-afc",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1596441,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Alfreton Town",
"home_team_id": 4677,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4677.webp",
"home_team_name": "Alfreton Town",
"home_team_public_id": "2U1EiAk9Sb0aRE",
"home_team_slug": "alfreton-town",
"ht.home_team_slug": "alfreton-town",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Non League Premier - Northern",
"league_id": 59,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/59.webp",
"league_name": "Non League Premier - Northern",
"league_public_id": "0t9HzgZklXpIJk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-29 18:45:00",
"public_id": "2uWQSw49w05ihw",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4243,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.1228,
"implied_prob": 0.3757,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2471,
"home": 0.3772
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3595
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2778,
"best_odd": 3.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0324,
"implied_prob": 0.2471,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2471,
"home": 0.3772
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2608
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4424,
"best_odd": 2.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.005,
"ev": -0.0954,
"implied_prob": 0.3772,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2471,
"home": 0.3772
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.3723
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": -0.0723,
"ev": -0.1764,
"implied_prob": 0.4098,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.71,
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": 0.0999,
"implied_prob": 0.2695,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.43,
"edge": -0.0455,
"ev": -0.1107,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2116,
"alpha_yes": 0.2327,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0454,
"edge_yes": -0.0454,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0871,
"ev_yes": -0.128,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1194,
"implied_no": 0.4096,
"implied_yes": 0.5904,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2116,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.0871,
"implied_prob": 0.4152,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4236
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2327,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0093,
"ev": -0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.5848,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5755
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4236,
"p_final_yes": 0.5755,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2253,
"alpha_under": 0.2049,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 2.16,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.95,
"edge_over": -0.0638,
"edge_under": 0.0638,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1284,
"ev_under": 0.1189,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0824,
"implied_over": 0.5458,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5417,
"implied_under": 0.4542,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4583,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2253,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0134,
"ev": -0.1284,
"implied_prob": 0.5417,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5282
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2049,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0824,
"implied_prob": 0.4583,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4706
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5282,
"p_final_under": 0.4706,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alfreton Town at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alfreton Town as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alfreton Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Alfreton Town, but the model still strongly favours Alfreton Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0954,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3772,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4115226337448559,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1106,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.005,
"ev": -0.0954,
"implied_prob": 0.3772,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Alfreton Town"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2116,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0084,
"market_prob": 0.4152,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2116,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.0871,
"implied_prob": 0.4152,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4236
},
"p_final": 0.4236,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0871,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2327,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0093,
"ev": -0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.5848,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5755
}
},
"edge": 0.0454,
"ev": 0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.4096,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2049,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0122,
"market_prob": 0.4583,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2253,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0134,
"ev": -0.1284,
"implied_prob": 0.5417,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5282
},
"p_final": 0.4706,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0824,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2049,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0824,
"implied_prob": 0.4583,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4706
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0638,
"ev": 0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.4542,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1596441,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1189,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Guiseley AFC",
"home": "Alfreton Town"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.043113,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.4542,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0954,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3772,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4115226337448559,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1106,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1596441,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T18:44:43.094334+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Alfreton Town & Guiseley AFC!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Non League Premier - Northern — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redcar Athletic | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | Cleethorpes Town | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| 3 | Avro | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 4 | Workington | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 5 | Guiseley AFC | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 6 | Rylands | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Warrington Town | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Bury | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 9 | Curzon Ashton | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 10 | Lancaster City | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 11 | Alfreton Town | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 12 | Hyde United | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 13 | Gainsborough Trinity | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 14 | Whitby Town | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 15 | Ashton United | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | AFC Emley | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 17 | Leek Town | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 18 | Quorn | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 19 | Bamber Bridge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 20 | Stockton Town | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| 21 | Ilkeston Town | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avro | 9 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 22 |
| 2 | Cleethorpes Town | 11 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 24 |
| 3 | Redcar Athletic | 11 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 25 |
| 4 | Guiseley AFC | 10 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 19 |
| 5 | Workington | 11 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 20 |
| 6 | Bury | 9 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 16 |
| 7 | Leek Town | 10 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Curzon Ashton | 9 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 16 |
| 9 | Warrington Town | 9 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 17 |
| 10 | Alfreton Town | 11 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 | Rylands | 11 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 19 |
| 12 | Quorn | 10 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 9 |
| 13 | Bamber Bridge | 11 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 9 |
| 14 | Whitby Town | 10 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 12 |
| 15 | Gainsborough Trinity | 9 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 13 |
| 16 | Stockton Town | 11 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Lancaster City | 11 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 16 |
| 18 | Hyde United | 11 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 14 |
| 19 | United of Manchester | 9 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 5 |
| 20 | Ashton United | 9 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 11 |
| 21 | AFC Emley | 11 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 10 |
| 22 | Ilkeston Town | 11 | 7 | 24 | -17 | 7 |
