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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Ramsgate Ramsgate ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.91
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Ramsgate win · Ramsgate 2–0 Maldon & Tiptree
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%
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View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "499c57df85909638dd0265755969d9e0cd6961528aaa572e37c0d31e1cbb2256",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": 0.3285,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.04,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.66,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"home_win_prob": 0.3754,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Ramsgate and +2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "Ramsgate"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Ramsgate",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1039,
"edge_gap": 0.047,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4796,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.9,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 37.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.91
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.91,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Ramsgate Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.09,
"market_odds": 1.91,
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"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -14.8,
"value_pct": -28.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 71.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 74.1,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.25,
"home_expected": 1.35,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ramsgate or Draw",
"prob": 67.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ramsgate or Maldon \u0026 Tiptree",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Maldon \u0026 Tiptree",
"prob": 62.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ramsgate or Maldon \u0026 Tiptree",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Ramsgate"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+2.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 26.7,
"implied_prob": 23.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 4.28
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Maldon \u0026 Tiptree",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 30.64,
"draw": 21.4,
"home": 47.96
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 18:45:57",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 18:18:07",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ramsgate",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.96,
"gap_pp": -10.39,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 37.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.4,
"gap_pp": 8.16,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.64,
"gap_pp": 2.23,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.03,
"gap_pp": -13.83,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.97,
"gap_pp": 13.83,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.91,
"early": 1.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.96,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.96,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.28,
"early": 4.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.4,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.4,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.99,
"early": 2.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.64,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.5,
"early": 1.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.03,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.03,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.45,
"early": 2.45,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.97,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.97,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.4,
"ev": 0.125,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.0,
"market_prob": 0.1111,
"market_prob_pct": 11.1,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.35,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1429,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0196,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.3805,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1964,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.027,
"ev": -0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.6195,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5925
},
"p_final": 0.4001,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2484,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0357,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1429,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0196,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.3805,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4001
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.7,
"text": "-27.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3572,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 35.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3572,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10471.48,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1625,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0106,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.3901,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1625,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.3901,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4006
},
"p_final": 0.4006,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0602,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0666,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2234,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1128,
"implied_prob": 0.6099,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5954
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0966,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.7,
"text": "+9.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0966,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10086.94,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate.",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1845,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.4,
"text": "-18.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4796,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0227,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.3,
"text": "-2.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ramsgate",
"sort_key": 1794.325,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"alert_team": "Maldon \u0026 Tiptree",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.42,
"hero_label": "Ramsgate",
"market_prob_pct": 48.0,
"market_team": "Ramsgate",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Ramsgate",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 72,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ramsgate at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ramsgate as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ramsgate",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1845,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4796,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/7",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.42,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.42,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"steam_team": "Maldon \u0026 Tiptree",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ramsgate at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ramsgate as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ramsgate",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1845,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4796,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ramsgate 1.35 xG vs Maldon \u0026 Tiptree 1.25 \u2192 Ramsgate 37.5%",
"Market: Ramsgate ~48.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Maldon \u0026 Tiptree \u2193 -10.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ramsgate, but sharp money moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.42,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Ramsgate",
"market_prob": 47.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.21,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.21,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Maldon \u0026 Tiptree",
"market_prob": 30.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.03,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.03,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.43,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.43,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Ramsgate",
"market_prob_pct": 47.96,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Maldon \u0026 Tiptree"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Ramsgate\u0027s win probability at 48.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.42,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ramsgate",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.5,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ramsgate 1.35 xG vs Maldon \u0026 Tiptree 1.25 \u2192 Ramsgate 37.5%",
"Market: Ramsgate ~48.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Maldon \u0026 Tiptree \u2193 -10.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ramsgate, but sharp money moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.42,
"hero_label": "Ramsgate",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Maldon \u0026 Tiptree odds shortened \u2193 -10.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, with odds shortening by 10.8%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Ramsgate than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Maldon \u0026 Tiptree \u2014 odds shortened by 10.8%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Ramsgate than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, with odds shortening by 10.8%.",
"Buying interest on Maldon \u0026 Tiptree \u2014 odds shortened by 10.8%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Ramsgate more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Maldon \u0026 Tiptree has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 10.8%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on Maldon \u0026 Tiptree."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.42,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Ramsgate",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Ramsgate higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.42,
"edge_pp": -10.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ramsgate",
"market_prob_pct": 47.96,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.21,
"edge_pp": 8.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.4,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.21,
"edge_pp": 2.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Maldon \u0026 Tiptree",
"market_prob_pct": 30.64,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Maldon \u0026 Tiptree \u2014 odds shortened by 10.8%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ramsgate (48.0%).",
"However, Maldon \u0026 Tiptree has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -10.8%, 7/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ramsgate, Market \u2192 Ramsgate, Recent sharp money \u2192 Maldon \u0026 Tiptree.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.36,
"closing_odds": 1.91,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.36,
"entry_odds": 1.91,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.2
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Maldon \u0026 Tiptree (10.8%, 7/7) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.70",
"3.35",
"2.99"
],
"display": "4.00 \u2192 3.13 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 45m",
"pick_team": "Maldon \u0026 Tiptree",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.13"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.7,
2.99,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,10.1",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.99"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.7,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Maldon \u0026 Tiptree \u2193 -10.8% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Maldon \u0026 Tiptree",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Maldon \u0026 Tiptree \u2193 -10.8% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"summary": "Market moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Maldon \u0026 Tiptree",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 72,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "Maldon \u0026 Tiptree",
"steam_score": 72,
"steam_team_name": "Maldon \u0026 Tiptree",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "maldon-tiptree",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Maldon \u0026 Tiptree",
"away_team_id": 7654,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7654.webp",
"away_team_name": "Maldon \u0026 Tiptree",
"away_team_public_id": "5wCeWyWNT6N68F",
"away_team_slug": "maldon-tiptree",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1595976,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Ramsgate",
"home_team_id": 7665,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7665.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ramsgate",
"home_team_public_id": "0I8ISzGCcHpqJk",
"home_team_slug": "ramsgate",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ramsgate",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Non League Premier - Isthmian",
"league_id": 58,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/58.webp",
"league_name": "Non League Premier - Isthmian",
"league_public_id": "5p6CYu3fPXwb1r",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 18:45:00",
"public_id": "3NefDFkIRmqCRl",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ramsgate",
"venue_name": "Southwood Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4349,
"best_odd": 2.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.0549,
"implied_prob": 0.3064,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3064,
"draw": 0.214,
"home": 0.4796
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3161
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1755,
"best_odd": 4.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0227,
"implied_prob": 0.214,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3064,
"draw": 0.214,
"home": 0.4796
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2284
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5065,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0526,
"ev": -0.1845,
"implied_prob": 0.4796,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3064,
"draw": 0.214,
"home": 0.4796
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.427
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.99,
"edge": -0.0057,
"ev": -0.0172,
"implied_prob": 0.3344,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.28,
"edge": 0.062,
"ev": 0.2653,
"implied_prob": 0.2336,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.1479,
"ev": -0.2825,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1625,
"alpha_yes": 0.2234,
"best_no_odd": 2.41,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0643,
"edge_yes": -0.0643,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0966,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0666,
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1128,
"implied_no": 0.3907,
"implied_yes": 0.6093,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1625,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.3901,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4006
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2234,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1128,
"implied_prob": 0.6099,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5954
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4006,
"p_final_yes": 0.5954,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1964,
"alpha_under": 0.1429,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.48,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.41,
"edge_over": -0.1403,
"edge_under": 0.1403,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1231,
"ev_under": 0.3572,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0357,
"implied_over": 0.6223,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6195,
"implied_under": 0.3777,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3805,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1964,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.027,
"ev": -0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.6195,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5925
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1429,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0196,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.3805,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4001
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5925,
"p_final_under": 0.4001,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ramsgate at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ramsgate as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ramsgate",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Maldon \u0026 Tiptree, but the model still strongly favours Ramsgate.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1845,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4796,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0526,
"ev": -0.1845,
"implied_prob": 0.4796,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ramsgate"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1625,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0106,
"market_prob": 0.3901,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1625,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.3901,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4006
},
"p_final": 0.4006,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0666,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2234,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1128,
"implied_prob": 0.6099,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5954
}
},
"edge": 0.0643,
"ev": 0.0966,
"implied_prob": 0.3907,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1429,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0196,
"market_prob": 0.3805,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1964,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.027,
"ev": -0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.6195,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5925
},
"p_final": 0.4001,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0357,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1429,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0196,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.3805,
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"p_final": 0.4001
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1403,
"ev": 0.3572,
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1595976,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3572,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Maldon \u0026 Tiptree",
"home": "Ramsgate"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.129521,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3572,
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1845,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4796,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1595976,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T18:45:58.545217+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Ramsgate & Maldon & Tiptree!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Non League Premier - Isthmian — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Carshalton Athletic | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Lewes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Welling United | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Dartford | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Dulwich Hamlet | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Aveley | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Leatherhead | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | St Albans City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Ramsgate | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Chatham Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Burgess Hill Town | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Cray Wanderers | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Wingate & Finchley | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 15 | Eastbourne Borough | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 16 | Maldon & Tiptree | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 17 | Cheshunt | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| 18 | Three Bridges | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 19 | Brentwood Town | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 20 | Whitehawk | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 21 | Whyteleafe | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 6 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 15 |
| 2 | Ramsgate | 6 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 9 |
| 3 | Dulwich Hamlet | 6 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 10 |
| 4 | Carshalton Athletic | 6 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | Welling United | 6 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 12 |
| 6 | Aveley | 6 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Chatham Town | 6 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Leatherhead | 6 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Three Bridges | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | St Albans City | 6 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Burgess Hill Town | 6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 | Eastbourne Borough | 6 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Lewes | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 13 |
| 14 | Cray Wanderers | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 8 |
| 15 | Dartford | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Wingate & Finchley | 6 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Whyteleafe | 6 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 2 |
| 19 | Brentwood Town | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 |
| 20 | Cheshunt | 6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 21 | Whitehawk | 6 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 2 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 6 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 1 |
