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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 El Entag El Harby Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.57
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · El Entag El Harby 0–0 Tanta SC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a82bbbabf756deb8f962e993ff7120ddefa0c5787475bc23eed9298a7d0189cb",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": 0.3285,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.04,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.66,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"home_win_prob": 0.3754,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : El Entag El Harby or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "El Entag El Harby"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "El Entag El Harby",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0091,
"edge_gap": 0.047,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3666,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.9,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 37.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.5
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.5,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "El Entag El Harby Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.73,
"market_odds": 2.5,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": -2.4,
"value_pct": -6.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 71.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 74.1,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.25,
"home_expected": 1.35,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "El Entag El Harby or Draw",
"prob": 67.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "El Entag El Harby or Tanta SC",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Tanta SC",
"prob": 62.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "El Entag El Harby or Tanta SC",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "El Entag El Harby"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 8.9,
"implied_prob": 30.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Tanta SC Win",
"model_prob": 32.9,
"odds": 3.31
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Tanta SC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 27.69,
"draw": 35.66,
"home": 36.66
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 13:29:30",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 13:01:00",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "El Entag El Harby",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.66,
"gap_pp": 0.91,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 37.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.66,
"gap_pp": -6.09,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.69,
"gap_pp": 5.18,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.41,
"gap_pp": 14.79,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 66.59,
"gap_pp": -14.79,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.5,
"early": 2.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.66,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.66,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.57,
"early": 2.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.66,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.66,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.31,
"early": 3.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.69,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.79,
"early": 2.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.41,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.4,
"early": 1.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 66.59,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 66.59,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.2,
"ev": -0.25,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.1667,
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.35,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.595,
"edge": 0.0191,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.3496,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"best_odd": 2.595,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0432,
"implied_prob": 0.3496,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3687
},
"p_final": 0.3687,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2508,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0432,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1984,
"best_odd": 1.395,
"edge": -0.0263,
"ev": -0.1294,
"implied_prob": 0.6504,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6241
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3448,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 34.5,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.4,
"text": "-25.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3448,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10460.32,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1851,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0219,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1212,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5492
},
"p_final": 0.4486,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1718,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0356,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1851,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0219,
"ev": -0.0356,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4486
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2401,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.0,
"text": "-24.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.199,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.9,
"text": "+19.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.199,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10179.1,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby.",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0735,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.3,
"text": "-7.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3666,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0361,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.6,
"text": "-3.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0608,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "El Entag El Harby",
"sort_key": 1790.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"alert_team": "El Entag El Harby",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.05,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 36.7,
"market_team": "El Entag El Harby",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "El Entag El Harby",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 79,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3448,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates El Entag El Harby at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies El Entag El Harby as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "El Entag El Harby",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0735,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3666,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0608,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.05,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.05,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"steam_team": "El Entag El Harby",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3448,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates El Entag El Harby at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies El Entag El Harby as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "El Entag El Harby",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0735,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3666,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0608,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: El Entag El Harby 1.35 xG vs Tanta SC 1.25 \u2192 El Entag El Harby 37.5%",
"Market: El Entag El Harby ~36.7% implied",
"Market Drift: El Entag El Harby odds \u2191 +20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours El Entag El Harby, but the market has moved away from El Entag El Harby.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.88,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "El Entag El Harby",
"market_prob": 36.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.05,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 35.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.16,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Tanta SC",
"market_prob": 27.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.69,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.51,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.69,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.49,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.64,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 42.86,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.64,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 57.14,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 35.66,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "El Entag El Harby"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 35.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.6%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.05,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "El Entag El Harby",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.8,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: El Entag El Harby 1.35 xG vs Tanta SC 1.25 \u2192 El Entag El Harby 37.5%",
"Market: El Entag El Harby ~36.7% implied",
"Market Drift: El Entag El Harby odds \u2191 +20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours El Entag El Harby, but the market has moved away from El Entag El Harby.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.05,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "El Entag El Harby odds lengthened \u2191 +20.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, El Entag El Harby has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from El Entag El Harby \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, El Entag El Harby has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from El Entag El Harby \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Draw above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, El Entag El Harby has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on El Entag El Harby."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.05,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.88,
"edge_pp": 0.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "El Entag El Harby",
"market_prob_pct": 36.66,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.05,
"edge_pp": -6.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 35.66,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.16,
"edge_pp": 5.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tanta SC",
"market_prob_pct": 27.69,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from El Entag El Harby \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers El Entag El Harby (36.7%).",
"However, El Entag El Harby has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +20.0%, 7/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 El Entag El Harby, Market \u2192 El Entag El Harby, while El Entag El Harby odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.91,
"closing_odds": 2.57,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.91,
"entry_odds": 2.57,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.6
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 44h 40m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/8 books lengthened El Entag El Harby together (20.0% drift, score 79) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.50",
"2.25",
"2.00"
],
"display": "2.50 \u2192 2.00 \u2192 2.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 44h 40m",
"pick_team": "El Entag El Harby",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
2.5,
2.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: El Entag El Harby odds \u2191 +20.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "El Entag El Harby",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: El Entag El Harby odds \u2191 +20.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Market moved away from El Entag El Harby while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "El Entag El Harby",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 79,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "El Entag El Harby",
"steam_score": 79,
"steam_team_name": "El Entag El Harby",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "tanta-sc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Tanta SC",
"away_team_id": 1045,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1045.webp",
"away_team_name": "Tanta SC",
"away_team_public_id": "5D3cWi1hFFrXIL",
"away_team_slug": "tanta-sc",
"country_code": "EG",
"country_display_name": "Egypt",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/eg.svg",
"country_id": 47,
"country_name": "Egypt",
"fixture_id": 1594846,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Egypt",
"home_team_display_name": "El Entag El Harby",
"home_team_id": 1034,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1034.webp",
"home_team_name": "El Entag El Harby",
"home_team_public_id": "21WmOOuefYGtVO",
"home_team_slug": "el-entag-el-harby",
"ht.home_team_slug": "el-entag-el-harby",
"league_country": "Egypt",
"league_country_display": "Egypt",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec Ai C\u1eadp",
"league_id": 887,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/887.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec Ai C\u1eadp",
"league_public_id": "0eLiV01E20e1LN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 13:30:00",
"public_id": "0MSoo20WLbnj5a",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Cairo",
"venue_name": "Al-Salam Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2767,
"best_odd": 3.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0361,
"implied_prob": 0.2769,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2769,
"draw": 0.3566,
"home": 0.3666
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.2912
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4089,
"best_odd": 2.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0249,
"ev": -0.1476,
"implied_prob": 0.3566,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2769,
"draw": 0.3566,
"home": 0.3666
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.3317
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4439,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.004,
"ev": -0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.3666,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2769,
"draw": 0.3566,
"home": 0.3666
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3706
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.31,
"edge": 0.0266,
"ev": 0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.3021,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.57,
"edge": -0.0935,
"ev": -0.2402,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.0609,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2036,
"alpha_yes": 0.1851,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1164,
"edge_yes": 0.1164,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2401,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1212,
"ev_yes": 0.199,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0356,
"implied_no": 0.5714,
"implied_yes": 0.4286,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1212,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5492
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1851,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0219,
"ev": -0.0356,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4486
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5492,
"p_final_yes": 0.4486,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1443,
"alpha_under": 0.1984,
"best_over_odd": 2.79,
"best_under_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.595,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.395,
"edge_over": 0.1369,
"edge_under": -0.1369,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3448,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0432,
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1294,
"implied_over": 0.3451,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3496,
"implied_under": 0.6549,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6504,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"best_odd": 2.595,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0432,
"implied_prob": 0.3496,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3687
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1984,
"best_odd": 1.395,
"edge": -0.0263,
"ev": -0.1294,
"implied_prob": 0.6504,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6241
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3687,
"p_final_under": 0.6241,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3448,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3448,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3448,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates El Entag El Harby at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies El Entag El Harby as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "El Entag El Harby",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from El Entag El Harby, but the model still strongly favours El Entag El Harby.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0735,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3666,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0608,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.004,
"ev": -0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.3666,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "El Entag El Harby"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1851,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0219,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1212,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5492
},
"p_final": 0.4486,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0356,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1851,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0219,
"ev": -0.0356,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4486
}
},
"edge": 0.1164,
"ev": 0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.595,
"edge": 0.0191,
"market_prob": 0.3496,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"best_odd": 2.595,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0432,
"implied_prob": 0.3496,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3687
},
"p_final": 0.3687,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0432,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1984,
"best_odd": 1.395,
"edge": -0.0263,
"ev": -0.1294,
"implied_prob": 0.6504,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6241
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1369,
"ev": 0.3448,
"implied_prob": 0.3451,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1594846,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3448,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Tanta SC",
"home": "El Entag El Harby"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.116336,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3448,
"implied_prob": 0.3451,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0735,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3666,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0608,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1594846,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T13:29:32.404634+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho El Entag El Harby & Tanta SC!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Hạng Nhì Ai Cập — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Kahraba Ismailia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Haras El Hodood | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Pharco | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | AL Nasr SC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Itesalat | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Tersana | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | El Mansura | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Team | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Tanta SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | El Seka El Hadid | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | El Entag El Harby | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | El Dakhleya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | La Viena FC | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Proxy | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Mega Sport | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 19 | Ismaily SC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Dayrout | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 6 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Kahraba Ismailia | 6 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 6 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 | Haras El Hodood | 5 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | Pharco | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | AL Nasr SC | 6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Itesalat | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | El Entag El Harby | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | El Mansura | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Team | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | El Seka El Hadid | 6 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Tersana | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Tanta SC | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Ismaily SC | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
| 15 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | La Viena FC | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | El Dakhleya | 6 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Mega Sport | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Proxy | 6 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 20 | Dayrout | 5 | 0 | 13 | -13 | 0 |
