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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 El Dakhleya Tersana ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.47
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Tersana win · El Dakhleya 1–2 Tersana
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "450ccb9c0dc64437e470e461401239c89064566bbd8353c2be4ab41b0e30d422",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"away_win_prob": 0.3517,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.84,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.84,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.3517,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Tersana and -2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Tersana"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "El Dakhleya",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0848,
"edge_gap": 0.0,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.267,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.2,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 35.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.47
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.47,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "El Dakhleya Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.75,
"market_odds": 3.47,
"model_odds": 2.84,
"overround": 7.9,
"prob_edge": 6.4,
"value_pct": 22.2,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "El Dakhleya or Draw",
"prob": 64.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "El Dakhleya or Tersana",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Tersana",
"prob": 64.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "El Dakhleya or Tersana",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "El Dakhleya"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-2.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 22.2,
"implied_prob": 28.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "El Dakhleya Win",
"model_prob": 35.2,
"odds": 3.47
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Tersana",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 35.64,
"draw": 37.66,
"home": 26.7
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-17 13:29:17",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-17 12:59:54",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "El Dakhleya",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_a",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.93,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.7,
"gap_pp": 8.48,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.66,
"gap_pp": -8.02,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.64,
"gap_pp": -0.46,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.35,
"gap_pp": 19.85,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 71.65,
"gap_pp": -19.85,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.47,
"early": 3.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.7,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.73,
"implied_early_pct": 27.43,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.46,
"early": 2.42,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.66,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.2,
"implied_early_pct": 37.86,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.6,
"early": 2.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.93,
"implied_early_pct": 34.71,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 3.31,
"early": 3.27,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.35,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.09,
"implied_early_pct": 28.45,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.31,
"early": 1.3,
"implied_closing_pct": 71.65,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.09,
"implied_early_pct": 71.55,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 19.9,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.8,
"ev": -0.181,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0818,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"edge": 0.0149,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3001,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0818,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.3001,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.315
},
"p_final": 0.315,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4556,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0487,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.18,
"best_odd": 1.295,
"edge": -0.0327,
"ev": -0.136,
"implied_prob": 0.6999,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6671
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.5761,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 57.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2955,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -29.5,
"text": "-29.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.5761,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10668.49,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1385,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0213,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.3914,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1905,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0293,
"ev": -0.1281,
"implied_prob": 0.6086,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5793
},
"p_final": 0.4127,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2753,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0343,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1385,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3914,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4127
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.2,
"text": "-27.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.308,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 30.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.308,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10277.2,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya.",
"consensus_odds": 3.47,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0035,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.4,
"text": "+0.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.267,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0035,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.4,
"text": "+0.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2207,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "El Dakhleya",
"sort_key": 5202.8,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"alert_team": "El Dakhleya",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.47,
"hero_label": "El Dakhleya",
"market_prob_pct": 26.7,
"market_team": "Draw",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "El Dakhleya",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5761,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5761,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates El Dakhleya at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies El Dakhleya as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "El Dakhleya",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +57.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +57.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +57.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+57.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0035,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.267,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2881844380403458,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2207,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 73,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.47,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.47,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"steam_team": "El Dakhleya",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5761,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5761,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates El Dakhleya at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies El Dakhleya as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "El Dakhleya",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +57.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +57.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +57.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+57.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0035,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.267,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2881844380403458,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2207,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: El Dakhleya 1.30 xG vs Tersana 1.30 \u2192 El Dakhleya 35.2%",
"Market: Draw ~26.7% implied",
"Market Drift: El Dakhleya odds \u2191 +18.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours El Dakhleya, but the market has moved away from El Dakhleya.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 8.47,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "El Dakhleya",
"market_prob": 26.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.01,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 37.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.47,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Tersana",
"market_prob": 35.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.97,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 30.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.97,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 69.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.05,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 39.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.05,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 60.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "El Dakhleya",
"market_prob_pct": 26.7,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "El Dakhleya"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates El Dakhleya\u0027s win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 26.7%, a difference of 8.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.47,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "El Dakhleya",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.5,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 73,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: El Dakhleya 1.30 xG vs Tersana 1.30 \u2192 El Dakhleya 35.2%",
"Market: Draw ~26.7% implied",
"Market Drift: El Dakhleya odds \u2191 +18.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours El Dakhleya, but the market has moved away from El Dakhleya.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.47,
"hero_label": "El Dakhleya",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "El Dakhleya odds lengthened \u2191 +18.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on El Dakhleya.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on El Dakhleya.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on El Dakhleya.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on El Dakhleya."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on El Dakhleya.",
"Recent line movement on El Dakhleya (\u2191 +18.3%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.47,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "El Dakhleya",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.5,
"lead": "The model rates El Dakhleya considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 8.47,
"edge_pp": 8.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "El Dakhleya",
"market_prob_pct": 26.7,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.01,
"edge_pp": -8.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 37.66,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.47,
"edge_pp": -0.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tersana",
"market_prob_pct": 35.64,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on El Dakhleya.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Draw (26.7%).",
"However, El Dakhleya has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +18.3%, 4/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 El Dakhleya, Market \u2192 Draw, while El Dakhleya odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.82,
"closing_odds": 3.47,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.82,
"entry_odds": 3.47,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 32h 27m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on El Dakhleya (18.3%, 4/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.47",
"3.04",
"2.62"
],
"display": "3.34 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 32h 27m",
"pick_team": "El Dakhleya",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.34"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.62,
3.47,
3.34,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,2.8 56.0,7.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.47"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "El Dakhleya",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"summary": "Market moved away from El Dakhleya while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "El Dakhleya",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "El Dakhleya",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_team_name": "El Dakhleya",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "tersana",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Tersana",
"away_team_id": 15739,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15739.webp",
"away_team_name": "Tersana",
"away_team_public_id": "3z38I71ydVbLqV",
"away_team_slug": "tersana",
"country_code": "EG",
"country_display_name": "Egypt",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/eg.svg",
"country_id": 47,
"country_name": "Egypt",
"fixture_id": 1594833,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Egypt",
"home_team_display_name": "El Dakhleya",
"home_team_id": 1032,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1032.webp",
"home_team_name": "El Dakhleya",
"home_team_public_id": "0QISyM7KON2ViQ",
"home_team_slug": "el-dakhleya",
"ht.home_team_slug": "el-dakhleya",
"league_country": "Egypt",
"league_country_display": "Egypt",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec Ai C\u1eadp",
"league_id": 887,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/887.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec Ai C\u1eadp",
"league_public_id": "0eLiV01E20e1LN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-17 13:30:00",
"public_id": "212Eww11JUDr1k",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Cairo",
"venue_name": "Police Academy Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4469,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.002,
"ev": -0.0788,
"implied_prob": 0.3564,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3564,
"draw": 0.3766,
"home": 0.267
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3543
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3959,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0317,
"ev": -0.1516,
"implied_prob": 0.3766,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3564,
"draw": 0.3766,
"home": 0.267
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3449
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2619,
"best_odd": 3.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": 0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.267,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3564,
"draw": 0.3766,
"home": 0.267
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.2892
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": -0.0328,
"ev": -0.0854,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": -0.1101,
"ev": -0.2707,
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.47,
"edge": 0.0636,
"ev": 0.2207,
"implied_prob": 0.2882,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1905,
"alpha_yes": 0.1385,
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.4,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1505,
"edge_yes": 0.1505,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1281,
"ev_yes": 0.308,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0343,
"implied_no": 0.6055,
"implied_yes": 0.3945,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1905,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0293,
"ev": -0.1281,
"implied_prob": 0.6086,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5793
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1385,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3914,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4127
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5793,
"p_final_yes": 0.4127,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.0818,
"alpha_under": 0.18,
"best_over_odd": 3.27,
"best_under_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_over_odd": 3.02,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.295,
"edge_over": 0.1797,
"edge_under": -0.1797,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.5761,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0487,
"ev_under": -0.2955,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.136,
"implied_over": 0.3023,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3001,
"implied_under": 0.6977,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6999,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0818,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.3001,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.315
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.18,
"best_odd": 1.295,
"edge": -0.0327,
"ev": -0.136,
"implied_prob": 0.6999,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6671
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.315,
"p_final_under": 0.6671,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5761,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5761,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5761,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5761,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5761,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates El Dakhleya at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies El Dakhleya as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "El Dakhleya",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +57.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +57.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +57.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+57.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from El Dakhleya, but the model still strongly favours El Dakhleya.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0035,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.267,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2881844380403458,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2207,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.47,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": 0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.267,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "El Dakhleya"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1385,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0213,
"market_prob": 0.3914,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1905,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0293,
"ev": -0.1281,
"implied_prob": 0.6086,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5793
},
"p_final": 0.4127,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0343,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1385,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3914,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4127
}
},
"edge": 0.1505,
"ev": 0.308,
"implied_prob": 0.3945,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0818,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"edge": 0.0149,
"market_prob": 0.3001,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0818,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.3001,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.315
},
"p_final": 0.315,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0487,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.18,
"best_odd": 1.295,
"edge": -0.0327,
"ev": -0.136,
"implied_prob": 0.6999,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6671
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1797,
"ev": 0.5761,
"implied_prob": 0.3023,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1594833,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5761,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.308,
"implied_prob": 0.3945,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.308,
"implied_prob": 0.3945,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Tersana",
"home": "El Dakhleya"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.194376,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5761,
"implied_prob": 0.3023,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0035,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.267,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2881844380403458,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2207,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1594833,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T13:29:19.295927+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho El Dakhleya & Tersana!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Hạng Nhì Ai Cập — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Kahraba Ismailia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Haras El Hodood | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Pharco | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | AL Nasr SC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Itesalat | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Tersana | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | El Mansura | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Team | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Tanta SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | El Seka El Hadid | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | El Entag El Harby | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | El Dakhleya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | La Viena FC | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Proxy | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Mega Sport | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 19 | Ismaily SC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Dayrout | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 6 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Kahraba Ismailia | 6 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 6 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 | Haras El Hodood | 5 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | Pharco | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | AL Nasr SC | 6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Itesalat | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | El Entag El Harby | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | El Mansura | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Team | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | El Seka El Hadid | 6 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Tersana | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Tanta SC | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Ismaily SC | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
| 15 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | La Viena FC | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | El Dakhleya | 6 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Mega Sport | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Proxy | 6 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 20 | Dayrout | 5 | 0 | 13 | -13 | 0 |
