Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Dumbarton Dumbarton ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.76
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Dumbarton win · Dumbarton 3–2 Kilmarnock II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "10e75cfba44a85564b04de8bbdd8be5b1e80a7b794e96c8d618bd0084f156679",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"away_win_prob": 0.3194,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.13,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.6,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"home_win_prob": 0.3849,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Kilmarnock II and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Kilmarnock II"
},
"away_xg": 1.23,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Dumbarton",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1356,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5202,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.0,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.76
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.76,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Dumbarton Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.92,
"market_odds": 1.76,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -18.4,
"value_pct": -32.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 70.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 74.6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
"home_expected": 1.37,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Dumbarton or Draw",
"prob": 68.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Dumbarton or Kilmarnock II",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Kilmarnock II",
"prob": 61.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Dumbarton or Kilmarnock II",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Dumbarton"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 20.2,
"implied_prob": 24.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 4.06
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Kilmarnock II",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 25.43,
"draw": 22.55,
"home": 52.02
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-22 18:42:12",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-22 18:15:00",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Dumbarton",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 6.69,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.02,
"gap_pp": -13.56,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.55,
"gap_pp": 7.04,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.43,
"gap_pp": 6.52,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.95
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.76,
"early": 1.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.02,
"implied_delta_pp": -6.69,
"implied_early_pct": 58.71,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.06,
"early": 4.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.55,
"implied_delta_pp": 2.19,
"implied_early_pct": 20.36,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.6,
"early": 4.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.43,
"implied_delta_pp": 4.5,
"implied_early_pct": 20.93,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 2.0,
"ev": 0.1875,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.5,
"market_prob": 0.1053,
"market_prob_pct": 10.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.37,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.08,
"edge": 0.0178,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.2952,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1648,
"best_odd": 1.29,
"edge": -0.0367,
"ev": -0.1382,
"implied_prob": 0.7048,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6681
},
"p_final": 0.313,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5954,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0359,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.2952,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.313
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3445,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -34.4,
"text": "-34.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.7094,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 70.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.7094,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10788.46,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.685,
"edge": 0.0175,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.3379,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
"best_odd": 2.685,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0459,
"implied_prob": 0.3379,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3554
},
"p_final": 0.3554,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2244,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0459,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.37,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1258,
"implied_prob": 0.6621,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6381
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3133,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 31.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2166,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.7,
"text": "-21.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3133,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10281.97,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1985,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.9,
"text": "-19.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5202,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.021,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.1,
"text": "-2.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3231,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Dumbarton",
"sort_key": 1794.75,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +69.1%",
"alert_team": "Kilmarnock II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.53,
"hero_label": "Dumbarton",
"market_prob_pct": 52.0,
"market_team": "Dumbarton",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Dumbarton",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 91,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dumbarton)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dumbarton)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dumbarton at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dumbarton as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dumbarton",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dumbarton).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1985,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5202,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3231,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.53,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.53,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 69.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +69.1%",
"steam_team": "Kilmarnock II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dumbarton)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dumbarton)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dumbarton at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dumbarton as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dumbarton",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dumbarton).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1985,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5202,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3231,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dumbarton 1.37 xG vs Kilmarnock II 1.23 \u2192 Dumbarton 38.5%",
"Market: Dumbarton ~52.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Kilmarnock II odds \u2191 +69.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Dumbarton with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.53,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Dumbarton",
"market_prob": 52.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.02,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.51,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Kilmarnock II",
"market_prob": 25.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -22.15,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 70.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 22.15,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 29.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.98,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 66.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.98,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 33.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Dumbarton",
"market_prob_pct": 52.02,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Kilmarnock II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Dumbarton\u0027s win probability at 52.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 13.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.53,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Dumbarton",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.5,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Dumbarton \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dumbarton 1.37 xG vs Kilmarnock II 1.23 \u2192 Dumbarton 38.5%",
"Market: Dumbarton ~52.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Kilmarnock II odds \u2191 +69.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Dumbarton with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.53,
"hero_label": "Dumbarton",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Kilmarnock II odds lengthened \u2191 +69.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Kilmarnock II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 69.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Dumbarton than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Kilmarnock II \u2014 odds lengthened by 69.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Dumbarton than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Kilmarnock II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 69.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Kilmarnock II \u2014 odds lengthened by 69.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Dumbarton more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Kilmarnock II has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 69.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Kilmarnock II."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.53,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Dumbarton",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Dumbarton higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.53,
"edge_pp": -13.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Dumbarton",
"market_prob_pct": 52.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.02,
"edge_pp": 7.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.55,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.51,
"edge_pp": 6.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kilmarnock II",
"market_prob_pct": 25.43,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Kilmarnock II \u2014 odds lengthened by 69.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Dumbarton (52.0%).",
"However, Kilmarnock II has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +69.1%, 8/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Dumbarton \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.82,
"closing_odds": 1.76,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.82,
"entry_odds": 1.76,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +69.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 69.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +48.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 48.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +47.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 47.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +41.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 41.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +40.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 40.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +37.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 37.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +35.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 35.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.9
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +69.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 69.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 4m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/8 books lengthened Kilmarnock II together (69.1% drift, score 91) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 69.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.75",
"4.58",
"3.40"
],
"display": "5.75 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 5.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 4m",
"pick_team": "Kilmarnock II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
3.6,
4.32,
5.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,16.5 37.3,11.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Kilmarnock II odds \u2191 +69.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Kilmarnock II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Kilmarnock II odds \u2191 +69.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +69.1%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Kilmarnock II",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 91,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +69.1%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Kilmarnock II",
"steam_score": 91,
"steam_team_name": "Kilmarnock II",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "kilmarnock-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Kilmarnock II",
"away_team_id": 19158,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/19158.webp",
"away_team_name": "Kilmarnock II",
"away_team_public_id": "5FExXkFeHOol3c",
"away_team_slug": "kilmarnock-ii",
"country_code": "GB-SCT",
"country_display_name": "Scotland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-sct.svg",
"country_id": 136,
"country_name": "Scotland",
"fixture_id": 1593596,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Scotland",
"home_team_display_name": "Dumbarton",
"home_team_id": 1382,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1382.webp",
"home_team_name": "Dumbarton",
"home_team_public_id": "1bIV2ipzGHyL3s",
"home_team_slug": "dumbarton",
"ht.home_team_slug": "dumbarton",
"league_country": "Scotland",
"league_country_display": "Scotland",
"league_display_name": "C\u00fap Th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c Scotland",
"league_id": 182,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/182.webp",
"league_name": "C\u00fap Th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c Scotland",
"league_public_id": "3nBcrPVpwkKC27",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 18:45:00",
"public_id": "5dv3SzoFJSNouw",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Dumbarton",
"venue_name": "Dumbarton Football Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2707,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.021,
"implied_prob": 0.2543,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2543,
"draw": 0.2255,
"home": 0.5202
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.272
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1789,
"best_odd": 4.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0334,
"implied_prob": 0.2255,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2543,
"draw": 0.2255,
"home": 0.5202
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2381
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.478,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0648,
"ev": -0.1985,
"implied_prob": 0.5202,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2543,
"draw": 0.2255,
"home": 0.5202
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4554
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0417,
"ev": 0.1502,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.06,
"edge": 0.0496,
"ev": 0.2012,
"implied_prob": 0.2463,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.1836,
"ev": -0.3231,
"implied_prob": 0.5682,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1481,
"alpha_yes": 0.2036,
"best_no_odd": 2.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1198,
"edge_yes": -0.1198,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3133,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0459,
"ev_yes": -0.2166,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1258,
"implied_no": 0.3362,
"implied_yes": 0.6638,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
"best_odd": 2.685,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0459,
"implied_prob": 0.3379,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3554
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.37,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1258,
"implied_prob": 0.6621,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6381
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3554,
"p_final_yes": 0.6381,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1648,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.36,
"best_under_odd": 3.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.29,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.08,
"edge_over": -0.2215,
"edge_under": 0.2215,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3445,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1382,
"ev_under": 0.7094,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0359,
"implied_over": 0.7035,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7048,
"implied_under": 0.2965,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2952,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1648,
"best_odd": 1.29,
"edge": -0.0367,
"ev": -0.1382,
"implied_prob": 0.7048,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6681
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.2952,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.313
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6681,
"p_final_under": 0.313,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dumbarton)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dumbarton at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dumbarton as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dumbarton",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dumbarton).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1985,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5202,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3231,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0648,
"ev": -0.1985,
"implied_prob": 0.5202,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Dumbarton"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.685,
"edge": 0.0175,
"market_prob": 0.3379,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
"best_odd": 2.685,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0459,
"implied_prob": 0.3379,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3554
},
"p_final": 0.3554,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0459,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.37,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1258,
"implied_prob": 0.6621,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6381
}
},
"edge": 0.1198,
"ev": 0.3133,
"implied_prob": 0.3362,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.08,
"edge": 0.0178,
"market_prob": 0.2952,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1648,
"best_odd": 1.29,
"edge": -0.0367,
"ev": -0.1382,
"implied_prob": 0.7048,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6681
},
"p_final": 0.313,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0359,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.2952,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.313
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2215,
"ev": 0.7094,
"implied_prob": 0.2965,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1593596,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7094,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3133,
"implied_prob": 0.3362,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3133,
"implied_prob": 0.3362,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Kilmarnock II",
"home": "Dumbarton"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.257228,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7094,
"implied_prob": 0.2965,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1985,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5202,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3231,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1593596,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T18:42:14.214339+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Dumbarton & Kilmarnock II!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Scotland. Cúp Thách thức Scotland Dự đoán
